Original Bracketology

I decided to do my own Bracketology this week. This is partially because I'm flying home tomorrow and won't be able to write about Lunardi and Parrish's updates until late Monday. But also, this gives me something to work off of between now and Sunday, and mess around with as the conference tournaments progress.

For now, I've done the top six lines (that sounds wrong). I guess I'll do 7-12 in the next couple days. I won't be doing the automatic bids from the small conferences, because that would be an exercise in futility. Not that this isn't.

This is probably self explanatory, but it goes overall record, conference record, RPI, and then Pomeroy ranking. For these purposes, I didn't really take the Pomeroy rating into account, since I don't think the committee will. Still, I think it's good to include that.

#1 Seeds
North Carolina- 29-2 (14-2), RPI #2, KPom #6
UCLA- 28-3 (16-2), RPI #6, KPom #2
Memphis- 30-1 (16-0), RPI #3, KPom #3
Tennessee- 28-3 (14-2), RPI #1, KPom #15

Are these the four best teams in the country? No, they are not. But at this point it's pretty clear that these are the four with the best resumes, which is what matters for this exercise.

North Carolina and UCLA are pretty much locked in. Should the Bruins have won those two games this weekend? No, clearly not. But they did, and that got them to 16-2 in the Pac-10, which should absolutely put them here to stay.

Memphis is hosting their conference tournament. It is highly unlikely that they lose, but if they do, I think they'll probably drop. That's a bridge we'll cross when we reach though, and there's upwards of an 80% chance we'll never reach it.

Tennessee is playing for their top seed in the SEC tournament. Win it, and they'll clearly be a 1. But if they stumble, they'll very likely fall down to a 2.

#2 Seeds
Kansas- 28-3 (13-3), RPI #8, KPom #1
Georgetown- 25-4 (15-3), RPI #7, KPom #8
Texas- 26-5 (13-3), RPI #5, KPom #9
Duke- 26-4 (13-3), RPI #4, KPom #5

Out of this group, I think only Kansas and Georgetown have the chance to move up. The last two 1 seeds will be some combination of those two, Memphis, and Tennessee. If Tennessee is 31-3, against the #1 SOS in the country (by RPI), they are going to get in over a 30-3 Kansas team that has played the RPI's 63rd most difficult schedule. The fact that the actual strength of these schedules is extremely comparable is probably not going to play a big role. If Kansas wanted to control their own destiny for a top seed, they shouldn't have lost to Oklahoma St. It's really that simple.

I was torn between Duke and Wisconsin for that #8 spot, but I feel like the RPIs could be a deciding factor. Regardless, there is a lot of potential for change among the bottom half of this line. Neither Duke nor Texas will be favored to win their conference tournament. One #3 seed will, and another has a good chance as well, so it's very likely that there will be some movement among those four.

#3 Seeds
Wisconsin- 26-4 (16-2), RPI #12, KPom #4
Louisville- 24-7 (14-4), RPI #11, KPom #7
Xavier- 26-5 (14-2), RPI #9, KPom #16
Notre Dame- 24-6 (14-4), RPI #19, KPom #25

Wisconsin will likely move up if they win the B10 tourney. What a disaster that conference is. Here are the top two road wins for each of the top four teams in the conference:

Wisconsin: Texas, Indiana
Indiana: Ohio St., Illinois
Purdue: Wisconsin, Illinois
Michigan St.: Illinois, Minnesota

That Illini team, with their 5-13 conference record, shows up a few too many times. I really have a hard time taking any of these teams seriously, save Wisconsin. My favorite is Michigan St. Let's extend this a little bit- their third best road win is @Bradley. Which is not good. But here's where it gets absurd: their fourth best is @Northwestern. How is that possible? Well, they only have four road wins. 4-6 on the road, including losses to Iowa and Penn St. Somehow that team does not instill fear in me.

Yes, my beloved Louisville squad lost to Georgetown on Saturday. However, they went down in the exact fashion that I'd hoped- they only lost by three. So, they will continue to go unnoticed, but I can keep thinking they're really good. Which is all I ever wanted, really. If they win at MSG on Saturday night, they'll have to get some consideration for a 2, depending on what happens with Duke, Texas, and Wisconsin. (I did love when Pitino called Georgetown "lucky", by the way. That was fantastic.)

The Fighting Irish sneak onto the line ahead of Purdue and Stanford, on the strength of having a non-conference resume that is at least respectable. Stanford played nobody, yet still managed to lose to Siena. Purdue did beat Louisville, but lost to Wofford at home, and Iowa St. in Vegas.

#4 Seeds
Stanford- 24-6 (13-5), RPI #17, KPom #14
Purdue- 24-7 (15-3), RPI #38, KPom #21
Connecticut- 24-7 (13-5), RPI #15, KPom #26
Drake- 28-4 (15-3), RPI #13, KPom #28

The Cardinal picked a bad weekend to lose twice. It's really not their fault that they had to travel to LA to close out the Pac-10 slate, but the timing is unfortunate. If they reach the finals, they've got a shot at moving back up to a 3. That non-conference is really ugly though, even without Lopez.

I had completely forgotten that Purdue beat Louisville in December. I honestly do not remember this at all.

#5 Seeds
Indiana- 25-6 (14-4), RPI #16, KPom #17
Washington St.- 23-7 (11-7), RPI #20, KPom #10
Butler- 28-3 (16-2), RPI #18, KPom #34
Vanderbilt- 25-6 (10-6), RPI #10, KPom #50

Indiana lost to Penn St. on Sunday. Even so, they did finish 14-4 in the Big 10. A good showing in the conference tournament probably moves them back up to a 4.

When considering talent rather than resume, Butler and Vanderbilt are both disgustingly overseeded. Sometimes the 5-12 upsets pick themselves. We'll see who they draw in round 1.

#6 Seeds
Marquette- 22-8 (11-7)
Clemson- 22-8 (10-6)
Gonzaga- 25-6 (13-1)
USC- 20-10 (11-7)

Ten days ago, I was on the Clemson bandwagon. Then they needed a miracle comeback to beat Maryland, lost to Georgia Tech, and nearly lost at home to Virginia Tech. I am no longer on the bandwagon.

Daniel Hackett has not been very good since returning two weeks ago, shooting 4/18 from the field, with 10 assists and 10 turnovers in four games. Despite this, USC has gone 3-1, including a sweep of Cal and Stanford this weekend. If he gets going, watch out. Their starting five of Jefferson, Gibson, Mayo, Lewis and Hackett could definitely make some noise in either of their upcoming tournaments.