Also, I have added even more pools to the list.
Okay, on to the East preview. The table below is a hybrid. For the first round percentages, I averaged the Vegas lines and the Pomeroy numbers. For rounds 2-4, I adjusted the Pomeroy numbers slightly. For example, I downgraded Indiana, because of the obvious external factors. I gave UNC a boost, because Pomeroy's numbers obviously don't know that Lawson was hurt.
There are reasonable arguments for each of the following statements:
- North Carolina is the best team in the country
- Tennessee should've been a 1 seed
- Louisville has the talent of a 2 seed
- Indiana should've been a 6, rather than an 8
- Butler should've been a 5, rather than a 7
The Sportsbook lines for this region are great. They have UNC at 5-7; the Tar Heels would have to have a 58% chance of reaching the Final Four for you to break even on that. They don't. This absurdity causes the rest of the lines to be better than usual- Sportsbook's odds only added up to 127% to begin with, and if you knock UNC down from 58% to 33%, there's barely any juice.
The Louisville line is a little better than break even, which is nice, but boring. The one that really surprised me was Indiana. I know they've been playing poorly lately, but 40:1? Even after I knocked down Pomeroy's numbers for the Hoosiers significantly, those are good odds.
Another intriguing one is Washington St. There are two reasons this line is so high- they didn't make it past the second round last year as a 3 seed, and they lost three straight home games in the middle of the Pac-10 season. Since then, they've played pretty well. I don't think it's unreasonable to say they've got a 1 in 10 chance, which makes their odds profitable.
I'm not saying it's a good bet (it's not), but considering what happened a couple years ago, I'd think Sportsbook is taking a good deal of action on George Mason at 300:1.
Yesterday, for the Midwest, six teams had at least a 1% chance of winning the regional, and only four were above 2%. For the East, those numbers are eight and seven, respectively. I think everybody thinks of the top three teams as serious Final Four contenders, and Washington St. is probably in the next tier down. It is possible that all of the following matchups occur: UNC-Indiana, Notre Dame-WSU, Butler-Tennessee, UNC-WSU, Louisville-Tennessee, and UNC-Louisville. I know upsets are part of what make the tournament what it is, but who could argue with that slate? I read somebody compare this region to the South last year- that works for me.
Pick: Louisville
Upset (has to be at least a 6 point underdog): George Mason
Scary team (four seed or lower): Indiana
Related: Bracket Breakdown: East and Midwest [Basketball Prospectus]
It's amazing to me how everyone keeps labeling Indiana as a scare team when they fell apart so bad down the stretch. Losing to Penn St. and getting bounced in the quarterfinal game of the big ten tourney should tell you everything you need to know about this team at this point. Yes i realize they might have 5 or 6 seed talent but they have been playing far worse. You cannot simply turn that around in a week and knock off a team like Carolina.
ReplyDeleteI see ND as the scary team in this region if only for that fact that Harongody can match up with Hansbrough and ND has the offense to keep up.
Notre Dame, road wins:
ReplyDeleteVillanova
Seton Hall
Rutgers
DePaul
South Florida
Notre Dame, on neutral courts:
Lost to Baylor, Georgia Tech, Marquette
Beat Kansas St., Monmouth
Notre Dame at home: 17-0
Three of their road losses- Marquette, Georgetown and Louisville- were never in doubt. I do not remember the UConn game, which they lost by 6.
Indiana obviously has plenty of faults- they've probably done even less away from Bloomington- but the fact that the Irish have Harangody doesn't change the fact that they've done nothing away from South Bend.
Yes i realize they only have 5 road wins but they only played 10 total away games (9 in conference). losing on the road to UCONN, Marquette, Louisville and Gtown is completely acceptable. I realize again that some of these losses were out of control. I dont think that their sample of road games is large enough where you can consider them a god awful road team. I think their talent will outweigh their alleged road woes.
ReplyDeleteIf you really wanna look at talk about playing on the road than look at Indiana's BIG 10 road schedule:
Lost by 29 @ Mich. St.
Lost by 4 @ Penn St.
(Both with Dakich)
Lost by 13 @ Wisc.
So basically they went 6-3 on the road in a really bad BIG 10 with their best road win being either Ohio St. or Illinois (take your pick). Am i missing something here?
"Am i missing something here?"
ReplyDeleteNo. I did say that "[Indiana has] probably done even less away from Bloomington".
I did not say Notre Dame is a "god awful road team" either. But they certainly have not proven they can win away from home.
Sorry i didn't mean to completely bash you there. Why is it that you like Indiana as the more dangerous team?
ReplyDeleteNo apology necessary.
ReplyDeleteI don't know. It's a stupid little line at the end. Honestly, I dislike Notre Dame because I don't think they're as good as advertised, because of said road woes. I think Indiana poses a tougher matchup for UNC than your average 8/9 team.
Not a whole lot of thought went into the pick. I do enjoy tearing down ND, though.
Are you gonna put up a bracket of your picks at some point?
ReplyDeleteAnd give away all my secrets!?
ReplyDeleteSure, if people care. I plan on filling out probably 25-30 brackets, and hopefully they will all be different. I will try to post my real one tomorrow night, though.
I'm not sure the world is ready for your bracket secrets but what the heck.
ReplyDeleteNew to the site but i enjoy the insight. Keep it up.
I'll also be curious about your brackets...I feel shameful for only having 12!
ReplyDeleteGeorge Mason for an upset will make my wife happy! We're going to be leaving the DC regional early (we'll miss the WVU-Arizona game) so we can get back home in time to see Mason. I hear that Gus Johnson is calling that game. Man, if Mason wins.....
VW,
ReplyDeleteNo matter how many pools I enter, I insist on having one "main" bracket for all those with standard scoring procedures. At the most, I'll only change the title winner, as those are typically worth 32 points in standard scoring pools (and hence, uh... pretty important).
By the way, I bailed on USC in my "seed# x round#" scoring pool and went with Wisconsin for the Final Four. I even mulled over an "all #3 seed Final Four", but decided to leave put UCLA in there as my Xavier futures bet from January prevents me from leaning on them too much.