Regional Previews: Midwest

First off- Luke Winn incorporated the home/road splits into a post for his Tourney Blog. His take on it is definitely worth a read. I swear, I have nothing against Vanderbilt- it just so happens that Siena was great on the road, and quite poor at home.

On to the Midwest preview. In the table below, the second column is the chance I think each team has of winning the region. This was done partially by taking Pomeroy's numbers into account, but mostly by my own judgments. The next column is what the odds should be. The third column is the best odds I've found, followed by their location.

Portland St. is 51:1 just to beat Kansas. Why anyone would bet on them to win the entire region is entirely beyond me.

The odds of everyone outside of the top four are really, really bad. USC is a good team. But to get to the Final Four, their four opponents could potentially be Kansas St., Wisconsin, Georgetown, and Kansas. The idea that they have a 1 in 13 chance of beating those four teams is absurd.

I'm a Wisconsin believer. They're 29-4, and have won 23 of their last 25 (both losses coming to Purdue). They are fourth in Pomeroy's ratings. That's probably a little excessive, but I still think 10:1 is quite good. The Sportsbook line is also an outlier- they're no better than 6:1 anywhere else.

I'm higher on Kansas than most. I think they are the best team in the nation- some others agree, but most do not. I would not bet on them at even money to win the region, since I think you could probably get better odds betting on each individual game. But that's not a bad line.

I have it as 90% that Kansas, Georgetown, or Wisconsin emerge from the Midwest. I think that's fair. This is partially because they're really good, but also a product of seeding. They just have it easier than the other than the other teams- that's a privilege they've earned, but a significant advantage nonetheless.

There's no doubt that USC-Kansas St. is a compelling first round matchup. But I would advise against picking either team to beat Wisconsin. First, the Badgers may not have the pro prospects, but they're better than either of those teams. But the main reason is each team's first round matchup. Who's going to win the USC-KSU game? I have no idea. It's about a toss up (USC is favored by 2.5). I'm much more confident that Wisconsin (-11) will take care of CS Fullerton. That's an important thing to keep in mind when filling out your bracket- not just the chance that USC beats Wisconsin, but the relative chances either team has of getting that far.

If Kansas, Clemson, Wisconsin, and Georgetown do end up reaching Detroit, the second weekend will be quite something.

Pick: Kansas
Upset (has to be at least a 6 point underdog): Siena, obviously
Scary team (four seed or lower): Clemson

Related: Bracket Winners and Losers [Basketball Prospectus]