Regional Previews: South

Same as always. I averaged the Vegas lines and the Pomeroy numbers for the first round. For rounds 2-4, I adjusted the Pomeroy numbers slightly. Marquette was downgraded, and I gave Pitt a slight bump.

Gasaway posted all the efficiency margins in one pretty chart this afternoon. The South is obviously handicapped because Memphis is not included, but it does not have a single team in the top 10.

I find it interesting that Memphis is 3:2 in multiple places to win the region. This is the same team that is 26-1, right? It's true that they didn't test themselves on the road, but were 3-0 in New York against Oklahoma, UConn, and USC. They also have double-digit home victories against Georgetown, Arizona, and Gonzaga. They went 16-0 in the 10th best conference in the country. If not for that one game, Memphis' odds would probably be much, much worse.

Looking at the aforementioned efficiency margins, Texas is only 15th in the country. This is partially because they play in the Big 12, which was very strong this year. But that's not the whole story- this didn't seem to bother Kansas, as their efficiency margin is 33% higher than anyone else's. The Longhorns looked good in their final two games- beating Oklahoma by 28, and hanging with the Jayhawks in Kansas City- but in the two weeks before that, they were uninspiring. A 3-1 record is nothing to complain about, but two of those games were at home and closer than they should be (beating Nebraska and Oklahoma St. by 4 and 5, respectively), and they lost @Texas Tech. The fact that their defense is only 32nd in efficiency also does not bode well. They don't have a bad draw- they should cruise to the second weekend- but I'm still not sold. Augustin is fun to watch though, I will give them that much.

Pitt sure looked good in New York. But the thing is, Pitt always looks good at the Garden. This was the fifth time they've reached the BE tournament final in the last six years. Let's look at how each year turned out.

Seems to me like their MSG performances aren't particularly indicative of how they'll do in the big tournament.

Marquette-Stanford would be an interesting second round game. Both teams rely on defense, but for Marquette it's their guards (3rd in 3-point FG% allowed, 5th in steal %), and for Stanford it's the tall brothers (6th in 2-point FG% allowed). I don't really see how Marquette is going to score against the Trees- their three guards are terrible outside shooters, and I can't see Hayward and Barro getting too much going against the Lopez brothers. The Vegas lines show a 64% chance of those two teams winning their first round games, so we'll probably find out.

I am picking Memphis- and they're very good- but it's essentially by default. I do not like Texas for the reasons listed above. Stanford has a bad draw. I'm not sold on Pitt. Michigan St. is 4-6 on the road, including losses at Iowa and Penn St. It's just not a very good region.

Pick: Memphis
Upset: Oral Roberts
Scary Team: Marquette

Related: First Round Schedule [Rush the Court]

Since a couple people have asked, I'm going to post my full bracket later tonight. There is no way I am going to class tomorrow afternoon, so there may be a live-blog.