Selection Sunday Live-Blog

12:03am I would first like to direct everybody's attention to the unbelievable season that Wagner had. They were first in the country in "Luck". Their "Luck" was +.219; Tennessee, second in the country in this metric, clocks in at +.124. Their are 341 D1 teams; Wagner was 77% luckier than any of the other 340. This is incredible

12:07 Ignoring auto-bids, my attempt at "Bracketology" has 41 teams as currently in: Arkansas, Butler, BYU, Clemson, Connecticut, Davidson, Drake, Duke, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Indiana, Kansas, Kansas St., Kent St., Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Memphis, Miami FL, Michigan St., Mississippi St., Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Saint Mary's, St. Joseph's, Stanford, Temple, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, UNC, UNLV, USC, Vanderbilt, Washington St., West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Xavier.

12:11 16 teams not on this list have secured auto-bids. These teams are: American, Austin Peay, Belmont, Boise St., Coppin St., Cornell, George Mason, Mississippi Valley St., Mount St. Mary's, Oral Roberts, Portland St., San Diego, Siena, UMBC, Western Kentucky, and Winthrop. Two more champions, those of the Big West and Southland conferences, will fall into this category as well.

12:14 This leaves six bubble teams. My bubble consists of nine teams. Aram, from the esteemed Sports VU blog, has convinced me to drop Illinois St. slightly. The current order is: Baylor, South Alabama, Illinois St., Arizona, Ohio St., Villanova, CUT, Massachusetts, Virginia Tech, VCU. This may change throughout the day, as I further assess the teams. Any changes will be completely arbitrary.

12:50pm If I hear one more person say how impressive it is that the Tigers have Pudge Rodriguez hitting 8th, I am going to stab them. Bob Ryan and Mitch Albom both said this in the last two minutes on The Sports Reporters.

I am back, by the way. Brooklyn to Emory in 5 hours. Record time.

1:18 Lunardi just said that Virginia Tech is his last team in because of their performance yesterday.

Needless to say, I do not agree with this.

1:26 The bubble is a mess. It is a complete disaster. I have no idea who is going to get in.

1:29 Besides Lunardi, Parrish (Sportsline), and Mandel (SI), who else predicts the bracket?

1:52 I do not know what to make of Illinois St. They have a good RPI (33), were 13-5 in the Valley, and reached the final. They were 2-5 against the Top 50, but those two wins were both against Creighton, who is a) #48, and b) not very good.

1:59 I currently have the 41 teams listed above in, plus these 6: Baylor, South Alabama, Illinois St., Arizona, Villanova, and Ohio St.

I am reconsidering Oregon. Illinois St. and Ohio St. are my last two in right now, I think.

2:31 Some predictions for your perusal: Lozo, Lunardi, Parrish, Mandel, Sports VU, some Sportsline producer, Sheehan.

2:41 Rob points us to a table summarizing the brackets of pretty much everybody. It has not been updated yet today, but will be at 5:30 pm EST.

3:17 North Carolina defeats Clemson, 86-81. They will be a 1, obviously; the Tigers will likely be a 4/5.

3:29 Top 8 seeds (I don't know why I'm doing this to myself):

1: UNC, Memphis, UCLA, Kansas*
2: Tennessee, Texas*, Georgetown, Duke
3: Wisconsin*, Stanford, Xavier, Louisville
4: Pitt, Clemson, Drake, Connecticut
5: Washington St., Indiana, Butler, Notre Dame
6: Purdue, Vanderbilt, Michigan St., USC
7: Oklahoma, Marquette, Arkansas*, West Virginia
8: Kent St., Gonzaga, UNLV, BYU

3:39

9: Texas A&M, Saint Mary's, Davidson, Mississippi St.
10: Kansas St., Temple, Miami (FL), St. Joseph's
11: South Alabama, Kentucky, Baylor, Arizona

3:41 There are currently three at large spots beyond that. Villanova is one. If Illinois and Georgia win, the rest of the field will be occupied by auto bids.

3:43 Teams with an asterisk are playing right now, obviously.

4:01 Georgia is up 26-9 on Arkansas, which is completely insane.

4:03 Oregon is going to be my next team in. They will be in unless Georgia and Illinois are both victorious.

4:30 Blank brackets; not a PDF.

4:31 Arkansas has cut Georgia's lead to 10 at the half. Wisconsin has opened up a 12 point lead on Illinois, and Brandon Rush just hit a 3 to put Kansas up 6.

4:34 Coppin St. and Mount St. Mary's will play in the "opening round game". Poor guys.

4:38 Here is my final bubble. Between four and six of these teams will be in the field. South Alabama, Baylor, Arizona, Villanova, Oregon, Ohio St., Illinois St.

4:55 Georgia is now up 6 on Arkansas with 14:10 left. Wisconsin has opened up a 13-point lead on Illinois.

Kansas is up 1 on Texas with 3:35 remaining. If you are not watching that (ESPN), I suggest you do so.

5:13 Kansas wins, 84-74. Chalmers was brilliant, with 30 points on (approximately) 8/12 from 3. The top two lines of my bracket stay in tact.

5:15 Georgia's lead on Arkansas is now 5, with 5:20 to go. Okay, make that 7.

5:21 The magical run for Illinois ends, as Wisconsin wins, 61-48. This puts Oregon in.

5:26 Onions! Humphrey hits a 3 for Georgia, increasing the lead to 8 with 1:27 left.

5:38 Georgia wins. Incredible. If you'd bet the money lines on UGA in each of the four games, you would've ended up with 171:1 odds on them winning the tournament. You should've done that.

We get to open the presents in 20 minutes.

5:40


1: UNC, Memphis, UCLA, Kansas
2: Tennessee, Texas, Georgetown, Duke
3: Wisconsin, Stanford, Xavier, Louisville
4: Pitt, Clemson, Drake, Connecticut
5: Washington St., Indiana, Butler, Notre Dame
6: Purdue, Vanderbilt, Michigan St., USC
7: Oklahoma, Marquette West Virginia, Gonzaga
8: Kent St., UNLV, BYU, Texas A&M
9: Arkansas, Saint Mary's, Davidson, Mississippi St.
10: Kansas St., Temple, Miami (FL), St. Joseph's
11: South Alabama, Kentucky, Baylor, Arizona
12: Villanova, Oregon

5:44 The rest (auto bids, teams not listed above): American, Austin Peay, Belmont, Boise St., Coppin St., Cornell, CSU Fullerton, George Mason, Georgia, Mississippi Valley St., Mount St. Mary's, Oral Roberts, Portland St., San Diego, Siena, TX Arlington, UMBC, Western Kentucky, Winthrop.

5:54 I am going to sit here and, like an idiot, type out each of the seeds as they are announced.

6:00 UNC is #1 overall. East, I'm assuming.

6:01 UCLA is #1 in the West. KU is #1 in the Midwest. They are happy.

6:03 And Memphis is in the South, obviously. I guess I missed that one. Memphis-UCLA and UNC-KU would be the national semifinals, if the 1 seeds all reach the Final Four, which has never happened.

6:09 East:
1 North Carolina
16 Mt St Mary's/Coppin St.

8 Indiana (Eight!?)
9 Arkansas

5 Notre Dame
12 George Mason

4 Washington St.
13 Winthrop

6 Oklahoma
11 St. Joseph's

3 Louisville
14 Boise St.

7 Butler (ouch)
10 South Alabama

2 Tennessee
15 American

6:14 That region is pretty loaded. UNC, Tennessee, and Louisville? Indiana as an 8? The Midwest region is up next.

6:16 Midwest:
1 Kansas
16 Portland St.

8 UNLV
9 Kent St.

5 Clemson
12 Villanova (boom)

4 Vanderbilt (no freaking way)
13 Siena

6 USC
11 Kansas St.

3 Wisconsin
14 CS Fullerton

7 Gonzaga
10 Davidson

2 Georgetown
15 UMBC

6:20 Well that's the most compelling 6-11 game in the history of 6-11 games. Ra-tings.

6:21 Wow, that was a great call by David S. on the potential Oklahoma-Boise St. second round matchup.

6:24 South:
1 Memphis
16 Texas Arlington

8 Mississippi St.
9 Oregon (wow, a 9?)

5 Michigan St.
12 Temple

4 Pitt
13 Oral Roberts

6 Marquette
11 Kentucky

3 Stanford
14 Cornell

7 Miami FL
10 Saint Mary's

2 Texas
15 Austin Peay

6:29 Well, apparently Miami was not on the bubble.

6:30 Texas gets a bye to the Sweet 16, which is kind. Pitt does not have a bad draw either.

6:32 West:

1 UCLA
16 Mississippi Valley St.

8 BYU
9 Texas A&M

5 Drake
12 (dramatic pause) Western Kentucky...oh

4 Connecticut
13 San Diego

6 Purdue
11 Baylor

3 Xavier
14 Georgia

7 West Virginia
10 Arizona

2 Duke
15 Belmont

6:46 Well that went exactly as expect, which in itself is quite surprising.

6:47 Vitale's "thought" are coming up next on ESPN. I am so excited.

6:48 How do you justify the ACC only getting four teams? It's a crappy conference after hte first three teams, that's how they should justify it.

Packer is still stuck on this.

6:50 Ole Miss is "heartbroken"? Ole Miss is terrible, that's what they are.

6:51 Here we go with Vitale. This is disappointingly boring.

7:00 Best region: East (UNC, Tenny, 'Ville, Wash St., ND, Oklahoma, Butler, Indiana, Arkansas)

7:02 Worst region: West (UCLA, Duke, Xavier, Connecticut, Drake, Purdue, West Virginia, BYU, Texas A&M, Arizona)

A great draw for the Bruins. The West Virginia-Arizona first round game is very intriguing; the winner will give Duke a run for their money.