I was rooting against upsets in the East, and this is why. There's little doubt that the highest level of basketball played this weekend will be in Charlotte. This table also shows why I thought it was somewhat insane to have UNC going all the way in a bracket. They took care of business in the first two rounds, and they're barely above a 50% chance to even reach the Final Four.Louisville is favored by 2.5 against the Vols on Thursday. This shows just how much the perception of both these teams has changed. The Cardinals dismantled Oklahoma yesterday, while Tennessee barely got by Butler, but these two teams have been heading in different directions for awhile now.
The UNC-Wazzu game will be quite a contrast in styles, as it matches the fastest paced team remaining (Carolina, 8th in the country) against the slowest (the Cougars, 335th). People seem to be assuming the Tar Heels will advance, but they're going to have to step up defensively for that to happen. They certainly won't have an offensive efficiency of over 150 against this Wazzu team.
A Louisville-North Carolina regional final would be possibly the best game of the tournament, but the pace of a UNC-Tennessee matchup would be quite something as well.
This KU-Villanova game is somewhat uninteresting. Villanova can't really be looked at as a great Cinderella story because a) they play in the Big East, and b) the Clemson win was nice, but I don't think they shocked too many people by knocking off Siena. Now they face a Kansas team that's been winning comfortably, if not in the spectacular fashion of Louisville and UNC. It'll be a tall task for the Wildcats to buck that trend on Friday. I think the country is still sleeping on the Jayhawks, although a certain blogger seems to disagree.
The other game is this region is fascinating. Everybody knows all about Stephen Curry, but did you know Wisconsin has the best defense in the country? Sure, Georgetown is in the Top 10 as well, and we all saw what happened there, but Curry didn't really get it going against them until the last five minutes. If he waits that long again on Friday, it will likely be too late.
The South is completely wide open- Memphis and their 47% performance from the line clearly didn't impress anyone yesterday. But even before that game, people were down on them, and have been since they lost to Tennessee at home. And I think that's fair- they really should have gone on the road in non-conference- their only away games were against Middle Tennessee and Cincinnati. Although I suppose they got a 1 seed, so you can't criticize that strategy too much.Regardless, they easily have the lowest percentage of any of the top seeds. The Longhorns may set a record for fewest turnovers in their game against Stanford; they turn the ball over less than any team in the country, while the Trees are 320th in forcing turnovers. It should be a very competitive weekend of games in Houston.
I was thinking today about how much of an idiot I am for picking Duke to come out of this region. But, looking at it now, there wasn't a clearly better option. UCLA almost lost yesterday. West Virginia has won two tough games, but they're still only halfway there. Xavier needed a comeback against UGA and a tough win over Purdue just to get this far. And Western Kentucky needed a miracle shot to beat Drake, and still is only 1 in 20 to reach San Antonio. Any Final Four pick in this region could be second guessed, mine just happened to lose on the first weekend.Alright, enough justifying my stupidity. UCLA was lucky to escape against Texas A&M, but now face an overmatched Western Kentucky team. It's strange how that worked out- they were a couple minutes away from being the victim of the biggest upset of the tournament, and now they're the biggest favorite to reach the Final Four. They have AJ Price's knee to thank for that, really.
Related: A compliation of second chance contests [Roxiticus Desperate Housewives]
Agree with you that the Wizzou/UNC game will be close/exciting if only because of the contrasting styles. I think UNC will ultimately pull away but not until late in the 2nd half.
ReplyDeleteI should probably preface this by saying i am a huge NOVA fan, but absolutely NOBODY is giving Villanova a chance this weekend (perhaps rightfully so). Disrupting Kansas' offensive rhythm will be the biggest key for Nova. This Nova team reminds me of the team 3 years ago. That team went to the sweet 16 and played another #1 seed in a memorable contest that came down to a questionable traveling call (Allan Ray). That team was young as well and had their whole team returning for the following year. Of course UNC went on to win the National Championship but their toughest test that tournament came from those cats. Hopefully Nova puts up a similar fight this Friday night but comes up on the other side of the score column.
I have to disagree with Vegas Watch in your assessment that there "wasn't a clearly better option than Duke". What was it about Duke that impressed you in the regular season? UCLA, for the most part, ran through the regular season and Pac-10 tourney. I gotta believe they will use the A&M game as a motivator and play much better basketball on their way to the final 4.
In Duke's case, what particularly impressed me was their mystique. Unfortunately, it seems as though they've lost it. I wish I would have read about that before I picked them to reach the final four.
ReplyDeleteSames goes for me, Eric. Just didn't do enough research.
ReplyDeleteVW,
ReplyDeleteAsking for your thoughts on hedging my Xavier futures bet. I'm considering taking UCLA to win the region at -300 (at sportsbook) right now for two reasons. One, I can't see WKU beating the Bruins. Two, if Xavier does move on to face UCLA, I doubt the UCLA moneyline will be lower than -300, and I planned on hedging starting in the Elite Eight anyhow.
I guess the other question is, If a hedge in the Elite Eight costs more than -300, is it too early to hedge? I think I'm talking myself into that and just letting it ride for two more games (hopefully).
I would not take the UCLA money line; you're setting yourself up to lose too much money. They will probably beat WKU, but they might not, and they could easily lose to WVU in the Elite 8. I am not going to begin hedging until at least the Elite 8. It's still a real longshot, and it's not much risk, so I'm really just looking at it as a bonus at this point.
ReplyDeleteGood work on this, Jacob. Your analysis of your stats was a lot better than Luke's.
ReplyDeleteI was going to give you hell for picking Duke... until I remembered that you're still ahead of me in the pool (and likely to stay there)... haha.
rtmsf