Futures Watch: Week 3

(All records/percentages through Tuesday's games. Odds taken from 5Dimes, Sportsbook, Bodog, and BetUS)

Last week's picks
Oakland (125:1), now 80:1 (5Dimes)
Tampa Bay (100:1), now 100:1 (Sportsbook)
Milwaukee (30:1), now 27:1 (5Dimes)
Baltimore (250:1), now 250:1 (5Dimes)
Detroit (12:1), now14:1 (Sportsbook)

The Brewers' odds adjusted a little bit, but they also went from up two to tied with the Cubs, so they're still pretty high. Their wost odds are 20:1, so everything has regressed to 24:1, which is about where they should be.

I said that 12:1 would be Detroit's low point, which didn't turn out to be correct. I didn't anticipate they'd continue to lose and end up at 2-10. They did.


This week's picks

Oakland, 80:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 9-6
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 34.4%
Tampa Bay, 100:1 (Sportsbook)
Record: 6-8
PECOTA: 31.6%

These two will continue to be featured on a weekly basis until they play themselves out of contention. PECOTA is just that far off from the general consensus.

Tampa's quest to improve their run prevention is off to an excellent start-they've allowed 62 runs in 14 games, putting them on pace to allow 717 over the course of the season. This is actually one less than PECOTA's extremely optimistic prediction, although it's obviously still quite early. Their preliminary defensive numbers are very good, as BP's Defensive Efficiency has them 9th in the majors. Edwin Jackson, who has been a prospect for approximately 17 years, has been a pleasant surprise, with a 2.84 ERA in three starts. He hasn't exactly turned a corner though, as he's issued 10 walks, and has a BABiP of .202 (great defense!). It should be noted that if you were somehow panicking about the Rays' 6-8 record, they've actually outscored their opponents by 11 runs. Also, Kazmir is yet to throw a pitch- his ideal return date is May 3.

Oakland was 5-2 this week, which probably seems impressive until you remember three of those games were against a AAA team. They've only allowed 55 runs,which is 14 fewer than any other team in their division. And that has to be the measuring stick here, for anything Oakland does- they don't have to be worldbeaters, or even win 86 games- they simply need to win more games than any other team in the American League West.

Kansas City, 200:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 8-6
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 7.1%

Are the Royals going to make the playoffs? No, probably not. Could they? I think so. If they make it 7.1% of the time, and win it all 7% of the time they make it, 200:1 is fair. So that's probably about right, but my goal is to write about all 30 teams in Futures Watch this year. This is their time.

Bannister and Greinke are both off to completely ridiculous starts. Combined, they've struck out just 22 batters over 45 innings, yet they've allowed a total of four runs. Greinke's BABiP of .214 looks entirely reasonable when compared to Bannister's .178. No matter how good of a writer Joe Posnanski is, I remain unconvinced that Bannister has outsmarted DIPS. Regardless, with those two, Meche, Soria, Gordon, and Butler, they are certainly moving in the right direction. It's just pretty unlikely that that direction involves the phrase "2008 World Series Champions".

There is really not much out there right now. I have a theory about this. I think that the odds adjust very efficiently to teams that start off the season well- it's hard to miss the fact that the A's are tied for first, and so their best odds went from 125:1 last week to 80:1 this week. Once we get a little deeper into the season, this will change. At that point, a team can go on a bit of a hot streak, and since it won't necessarily be explicitly visible in the standings, few people will take notice. That's what happened last year with both the Rockies and Mariners. Hopefully this will again be the case this year, and I'll be able to point these out.