
Apparently there is a clear hierarchy in the American League- it's the Yankees, Red Sox, and Tigers, and then everyone else. The gap between the Indians and Tigers amuses me to no end. VIP has Detroit at 4.75:1, and Cleveland at 16:1. This is an improvement, as the Indians were 18:1 a few weeks ago. I guess it really comes down to the fact that the Tigers have Pudge batting 8th; I really think that's going to make the difference in the division this year. That, and their superior bullpen. Denny Bautista, Jason Grilli, and Todd Jones really scare me. (I think the Indians at 16:1 is a pretty good bet, if that wasn't clear.)The Dodgers' and Diamondbacks' lines are intriguing. People talk about the NL West being wide open and having four legit contenders, but there are really four levels there- those two, the Rockies and Padres, [null], and then the Giants. Webb, Haren, and potentially Johnson would be quite formidable in October. And Torre seems to be leaning towards the correct decision with their outfield situation, although he did start Pierre tonight.
16:1 seems a little high for the Cubs; they are as low as 7:1 at Sportsbook and Carib, and I think 12:1 would be about right. They are the clear favorites in their division, probably the second best team in the league. And let's face it- the Mets really aren't that good.
A longshot? I'll take a cue from Sheehan here and go with the Rangers at 125:1. They are going to score a lot of runs, and in that division, who knows? Remember, the Rockies were 100:1 to win it all at this point last year. Not that they won the World Series, or came particularly close. But they did get there, and there's always hedging.
I have been trying to figure out what odds I would have to get to bet on the Orioles. 5000:1? I don't know. The chances of that roster finishing in the top two in that division (which wouldn't even necessarily be enough) are very close to zero.



Seems like with all the ESPN "experts" that have Seattle winning something in the range of mid-80s to low-90s in wins and a good chance to win the division, 35-1 isn't too bad. Not that I actually think they will win it all, but who knows.
ReplyDeleteThat'd be a good plan if the ESPN "experts" knew what they were doing...
ReplyDeletePudge had one of seven seasons all time last year where a player had 500+ ABs and 9 or fewer walks.
ReplyDeleteHe had roughly the same OBP as Nick Punto.
http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/Kr2G
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