The above table was in the Times yesterday. This seems to be the popular opinion around these parts- "Yeah, they haven't gotten off to a great start, but this happens all the time, they'll come back".
There are all kinds of problems with this. First, the biased samples. We're dealing with 30 games vs. 44 games vs. 50 games, and low point vs. right now vs. low point. It's a mess.
When we look at comparable periods, we see that there really aren't that many similarities. Some numbers through 44 games for these three Yankee seasons:
(And this doesn't even include the disaster that was last night.)Three years ago, they were well into turning it around at this point. After the 11-19 start, they went 12-2. They still hadn't caught up to their Pythag, but they were close.
Last year, they had the exact same record through 44 games. And, oddly, they'd allowed the same number of runs (although the pitching has actually been worse this year, because of the lower run environment). But that's where the similarities end. Because of their offense, they were 100 points behind their expected W% this year, while they're actually ahead of it this year.
The Yankees could very well come back and make the playoffs- it's true that A-Rod missed 20 games, and Posada has missed 27 so far. It's also looking increasingly likely that the Wild Card will come out of the AL East. So they're certainly not dead yet. But their "recoveries" in '05 and '07 really aren't relevant at all.
I find it relevant in the sense that they tend to have good offenses, and have been able to over the course of the year scrounge around and find some pitchers that work.
ReplyDeleteThis year, injuries aside, this offense has not been as good. It's a different situation.