Futures Watch: Week 8

This week:
Oakland, 50:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 24-23
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 27.3%
Tampa Bay, 35:1 (BetUS, 5Dimes)
Current Record: 27-19
PECOTA: 49.4%

Oakland beat the Rays today, which is not factored into any of the statistics above.

Tampa's average weekly odds thus far this year:


The first big shift comes directly after their six-game winning streak, which ended April 27. Their odds have been steadily descending since.

They've now allowed 193 runs in 47 games, on pace for 665. A little higher than last year, but I'm pretty sure they'd take that.

A week ago, BetUS had the Rays at 16:1 to win the AL East. Today, their best odds to win it all are 35:1, and it's as low as 20:1 at Sportsbook. (They didn't screw around, dropping it all the way from 100:1. Seems as though they're not too interested in taking many more bets on Tampa.)

Prior to today's win, Oakland had lost 8 of 10. Unsurprisingly, the offense was the problem, hitting .233/.313/.361 over that span (at least they're still walking).

It feels like it'll be hard for the A's to hang with the Angels all year--they're currently three games out--but it's certainly possible. The Angels were 27-20 coming into today, but their third-order record is actually under .500. Their scoring margin was only +8, and that's even while performing well in clutch situations.

Atlanta, 40:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 24-21
PECOTA: 31.8%

Contrast this with the Mets' best odds--10:1 at Sportsbook. Not only are the Braves two games ahead in the standings after today's win, but they've played much better so far this year.

Atlanta has now outscored their opponents by 58 runs. Some of that is because of a relatively weak schedule, but it's still impressive. The Mets, on the other hand, are only +4, against an average schedule.

The Braves have done this by playing well on both sides of the ball--both their OPS+ and ERA+ are 117. Obviously Chipper has led the offense, but McCann has been very good as well, hitting .321/.382/.596.

PECOTA's odds likely underestimate their playoff chances; the question is by how much. The version of the playoff odds that only considers data from this season has them at 54.3%, so it's probably somewhere in the middle. If they're 40% to reach the playoffs, and 50-50 to win the DS, and 40% to win the CS, that'd put their pennant odds at 11.5:1; BetUS has them at 17:1, so that's probably a pretty good wager.

Edit: At Matchbook they are +950 to win the NL, and -1450 to not win the NL, so 17:1 is definitely good.

Also: Losing with the Right Guys [Let's Go Tribe]