Wednesday, June 4, 2008

2008 Belmont Stakes Odds

There is a horse race on Saturday, apparently. Bodog has all kinds of props, but we'll start with the standard stuff.

To win the Belmont Stakes
(1) Big Brown, 2/5
(2) Guadalcanal, 40/1
(3) Macho Again, 30/1
(4) Dennis of Cork, 10/1
(5) Casino Drive, 10/3
(6) Da' Tara, 33/1
(7) Tale Of Ekati, 16/1
(8) Anak Nakal, 33/1
(9) Ready's Echo, 40/1
(10) Icabad Crane, 35/1

Will Big Brown win the Triple Crown?
Yes, -250
No, +200

A few days ago, Big Brown was -300 to win. I'm not sure if there's been some big news, or if he simply wasn't getting much action at -300.

You'd have to think that there's some value in the other nine horses, although maybe it's not enough to pay all the juice on the latter prop. The more interesting thing is at the race itself, where lots of people will inevitably bet on Big Brown simply to have the ticket of the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years.

Obviously, this (among other things) will inflate Big Brown's price come race time. I would really like to know how much of an effect it'll have, but I have no clue. I do know that betting on him is similar to betting on Tiger; it's not smart. And, to be clear, if he does end up winning, that doesn't mean it was a good bet.

Similar to the tournaments Tiger actually plays in, you can also bet on this race "without Big Brown". That means that if BB wins, bets on the horse that finishes second win; otherwise, it's the same as normal. For this, Casino Drive is 11/10. So, as you can also see in the normal odds, there is both a big gap between #1 and #2, and #2 and the rest of the field.

Will a member of the Clinton Family (Bill, Hilary or Chelsea) attend the 2008 Belmont Stakes?
Yes, -140
No, EV

Will the mayor of New York City, Michael Bloomberg, attend the 2008 Belmont Stakes?
Yes, +135
No, -175

Gotta love how they spelled Hillary's name wrong. Not like she's been in the news lately or anything. Bloomberg would be against this.

I don't have much else to say about these. Are these people going to be at the race? I have absolutely no idea. I also have no clue how they come up with these odds.

Who will jockey Kent Desormeaux thank first upon being interviewed after the 2008 Belmont Stakes?
God/Jesus, 6/1
Horse - Big Brown, 4/1
Family or Family Member, 5/4
Owner - IEAH Stables or partnership member, 8/1
Trainer - Rick Dutrow, 9/2
Fans/General Public, 5/1

This is quite the dilemma. Obviously, he should thank the horse. However, the horse cannot understand what he's saying, so it'd be kind of silly to waste his first "thank you" on a horse. Without knowing anything at all about Desormeaux, I'd probably take either God or Dutrow here.

Will Big Brown remain undefeated in 2008?
Yes, -250
No, +180

Some these make no sense. Why would you bet on "Yes" here at -250 when you can take him to simply win this race at the same odds? The answer is probably that they forgot to change this when the race odds changed, I guess. I don't see why that would be so difficult.

4 comments:

Chris said...

Casino Drive will win the Belmont. Big Brown isn't even worth betting on at those odds.

Anonymous said...

Casino Drive is a scratch now buddy

NSchaef said...

Yeah, came to post that Casino Drive is out with a bruise to the hoof. How will this impact the odds?

Vegas Watch said...

Bodog has their lines down at the moment, but Sportsbook has Big Brown at 1/6, and BetUS has him at 1/7.

Dennis of Cork is now the second most likely to win; he's about 5/1.