Last week:
Milwaukee, 75:1 (VIP)
40:1 to win the NL (VIP)
12:1 to win the NL Central (Sportsbook)
They are now 40:1 to win it all at VIP (45:1 at 5Dimes), and 20:1 to win the pennant. So that went pretty much as expected.
This week:
Oakland, 40:1 (Sportsbook)
Current Record: 34-30
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 57.2%
Tampa Bay, 17:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 38-27
PECOTA: 73.9%
A quick note from Davenport about the PECOTA odds:
I did find a bug in this program on June 7; changes which should have been accumulating gradually all season were suddenly introduced all at once. As described below, the Pct3 is supposed to be a combination of ther actual performance to date and the performance expected by PECOTA; due to the error, it was simply stuck on the pre-season PECOTA value.Both the Rays and A's have excellent third-order records. Also, the Angels' third-order record is awful, at 32-34. So that explains the large changes from last week.
The Rays went 3-6 during their "important stretch", falling just shy of Mr. Wisinski's goal. They've dropped to two games back of Boston, but only one in the loss column. Hopefully they can make up some ground on their nine game homestand against the Marlins, Cubs, and Astros, which begins on Friday.
Chicago White Sox, 15:1 (5Dimes)
White Sox to win the AL Central, +110 (VIP)
Current record: 37-27
PECOTA: 80.2%
The limit on the VIP line is $1000*. They are -190 at BetUS, and -400 at Sportsbook. PECOTA has them at 79.3% to win the division.
In fact, you could take Chicago at +110 at VIP, the Tigers at +750 at BetUS, and the Indians, Royals, and Twins at Sportsbook (+450, +10000, and +600, respectively) and guarantee a profit, as those five lines add up to 92.8%. It is also likely that you will be able to get a good price on the White Sox to not win the division to hedge this with at Matchbook in the near future.
*Please note that VIP has "night limits" which are in effect from midnight EST until around 10am EST.
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