For the second time in three years, there won't be a whole lot of debate about the preseason #1 in college basketball. The Draft withdrawal deadline came and went, and the three players North Carolina risked losing to the NBA--Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson, and Danny Green--are all coming back. While the other three Final Four teams will lose a total of seven first rounders (according to NBADraft.net), UNC will return everybody except Quentin Thomas, who graduated.
Now that the landscape is a little clearer, it seems like a good time to look at how each conference is shaping up for '08-'09. Head over to Rush the Court to get caught up on the news from today.
Big East
This still looks like a ridiculously strong conference, although not quite as good as it did seven weeks ago, as Syracuse lost Greene, and West Virginia lost Alexander. Even considering that, you'd be hard pressed to find a conference with six teams as good as UConn, Louisville, Pitt, Notre Dame, Marquette, and Georgetown. Although I suppose you'd also be hard pressed to find another conference with 16 teams, but my point still stands. It's going to be a rough year for the Rutgers and South Floridas of the world. Since I'm apparently ranking the top four teams in each conference, I'll go UConn, Louisville, Pitt, Notre Dame.
Pac-10
One of the bigger surprises of the day is that Chase Budinger is returning to school. Arizona will lose Bayless, but has super freshman Brandon Jennings coming in to replace him. Along with Hill and Wise, that looks to be a solid team, although it seems like we say that about the Wildcats every year.
Stanford loses both Lopez brothers to the draft, as well as Fred Washington and Taj Finger to graduation. Their guards were never very good anyway, and they don't have any big recruits coming in, so it looks like they're in for a down year. Looks like Washington St. will struggle also, as Low, Weaver and Cowgill were all seniors.
UCLA gets Collison, Shipp and Aboya back. Jrue Holiday (if someone could let me know how to pronounce that, that'd be great) headlines what Gary Parrish says is the best recruiting class in the nation, which includes a total of five Rivals top 50 freshmen. You have to expect Howland to have that team contending in this conference.
USC loses Mayo and Jefferson to the NBA, but they have a solid core in Lewis, Gibson, and Hackett returning, and Rivals #3 prospect Demar DeRozan coming in.
I don't know how much press they'll get in the preseason, but Arizona St. is going to be pretty good. Despite what the RPI may have led some to think, they were very solid last year, and have every significant contributor returning. At this point I'd say that UCLA, ASU, Arizona, and USC are the four best teams in the conference, probably in that order.
Big 12
Kansas loses Chalmers, Rush, Robinson, Arthur, Jackson, Kaun, and Stewart. Sherron Collins has his own issues. Parrish informs us that they have a "big" recruiting class coming in. I would hope so. If you find yourself betting on them at 20:1 to repeat, it's probably time for a new hobby.
Despite hurting his knee while working out for the Warriors, Bill Walker is staying in the draft, which is an interesting decision. The Wildcats obviously lose Beasley, as well as Young and Stewart to graduation. They have zero Rivals Top 150 recruits coming in. It's going to be a long year in Manhattan.
Augustin isn't coming back, but Texas will still be the favorite to win the conference. Abrams, Mason, James, Atchley, and Johnson certainly trumps what anyone else has returning.
Which makes the second best team in the conference...Baylor? It's looking that way. They return everyone except Aaron Bruce and Mark Shepherd to a team that went 9-7 in the Big 12 last year. With all the losses in front of them, they're #2 almost by default. Oklahoma will be decent with Griffin coming back, but Godbold and Longar Longar graduated. They do have Willie Warren, #11 on the Rivals 150, coming in. Texas A&M loses Jones, Kirk, and Jordan, but Carter is coming back along with Sloan, Davis and Roland. So I'll go Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas A&M here, although I may be giving Willie Warren more credit than he deserves.
Big Ten
Purdue doesn't lose anyone of significance to the NBA or graduation, but Scott Martin is transferring to Notre Dame. They are probably the favorites, slightly ahead of Wisconsin; the Badgers lose Flowers and Butch to graduation. Neither team has any top 50 recruits.
Indiana has two guys coming back, who averaged a combined 1.6 ppg last year.
The Spartans lose Neitzel, but Lucas should be able to step in at the point. Along with Morgan, Suton, Walton, and Gray, that is a solid five (in this conference, at least). Ohio St. has 7'1" B.J. Mullens, #1 on the Rivals 150 coming in. If Diebler (29% from 3, 37% from the field) remembers how to shoot, they could be decent. So, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan St., Ohio St., although you could swap those middle two if you want.
ACC
Carolina is going to be -500 to win the conference, or something similarly outrageous.
This got way too long. Wake has everybody returning and a great class coming in. And I'll go Miami after them. UNC, Duke, Wake, Miami.
SEC
Is this conference going to be worse than last year? Is that even possible?
Florida and Tennessee will at least be respectable. The Gators have everybody except Speights returning, and another solid recruting class coming in. The Vols have two Smiths (Tyler and Ramar), Chism, Prince, and Crews.
Then it gets ugly. Kentucky loses Bradley and Crawford to graduation, and Jasper is transferring to UNLV. Vandy loses Foster, Gordon, and Neltner, although I fully expect someone to try to convince me they'll be good. Mississippi St. loses Jamont Gordon to the league, Charles Rhodes to graduation, and Ben Hansbrough to Notre Dame. Arkansas loses Weems, Ervin, Townes, Thomas and Hill to graduation.
Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama. And one Sweet 16 team, again.
It is going to be hilarious to come back and look at this in March to see how wrong I was about everything.
Photo: Tar Heel Mania.
Related: Early Entry Winners and Losers [Rush the Court]
Monday, June 16, 2008
It's A Good Day To Be Roy Williams
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10 comments:
These predictions are always fun. You could be way off like you suggested, but I really think college hoops should be easier to predict than, say, college football.
Players that test the NBA waters are given a great evaluation so you can predict how good they'll be (NBA talent but a year away is still a good hoops player). And basketball freshmen make WAY more of an impact than any other sport.
Look at last year...we knew Mayo, Beasley, and Gordon would be huge parts of their teams, and they all were. I don't think this trend will be stopping soon.
The Heels look poised for another Final 4 loss.
FTR, Heels also lost Alex Stepheson (transfer). Regardless, the odds on on three (TL, WE, and DG) returning seemed very slim just 24 hours ago.
Thanks, zoomis, I hadn't realized that.
I started to get concerned when Lawson had the drunk driving thing. It really seemed like he was gone until that.
Ty was gone prior to the arrest> Most "sources" now say that Karl told Ty that they weren't likely to pick him as a result (going with Chalmers, maybe?) and encouraged him to head back to Chapel Hill.
I'm glad they're all coming back but...that's the same team that was down 40-12 in their last game. Don't you love college basketball? :-)
I think you mean Neltner, not Ogilvy, AJ is comin back.
Right. That I did know. My fault.
It's pronounced Drew or Dru. Jrue thats just how they spell it, LOL nice postvery informative
Thank you, David. I've been waiting for an answer to that question all day.
Nice comment, very informative.
If you're waiting for me to convince you, I'm not going to it just yet. Here's what I wrote in my SEC preview a while back:
The Commodores are one of the toughest teams to project. They're losing a lot, most notably SEC Player of the Year Shan Foster, but return Jermaine Beal and A.J. Ogilvy and welcome what is the best recruiting class in Kevin Stallings' tenure. Adding swingman Jeff Taylor and PG Brad Tinsley during the spring signing period was huge. You also can't forget about the raw, but extremely athletic center Festus Ezeli, who redshirted this season. Ultimately, there are too many unknowns to place any expectations on the Commodores. I would imagine that they get much better as the year goes on and have an outside chance to qualify for the Big Dance since the SEC is wide-open after UT and UF. With no seniors on the roster, however, watch out for Vandy in 09-10.
Also, UT's Ramar Smith and Crews were dismissed from the team.
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