Reevaluating The Tribe: Pitching

Starting rotation
PECOTA: C.C. Sabathia (103 IP), 3.42 ERA, 3.4 K:BB ratio
Fausto Carmona (89 IP), 4.07 ERA, 2.0 K:BB
Jake Westbrook (82 IP), 4.53 ERA, 1.7 K:BB
Paul Byrd (56 IP), 5.13 ERA, 2.1 K:BB
Clifton Phifer Lee (52 IP), 4.95 ERA, 1.9 K:BB

Actual: Sabathia (106.1 IP), 4.06 ERA, 3.6 K:BB, 3.24 FIP
Carmona (58 IP), 3.01 ERA, 0.6 K:BB, 4.53 FIP
Westbrook (34.2 IP), 3.12 ERA, 2.7 K:BB, 4.45 FIP
Byrd (84.2 IP), 5.21 ERA, 3.1 K:BB, 5.81 FIP
Lee (95.2 IP), 2.45 ERA, 5.3 K:BB, 2.47 FIP

Overall
PECOTA ERA: 4.40
Actual ERA: 3.82

Okay, maybe that was a little too much information all at once. The last two numbers are the important part--the rotation has been excellent, much better than expected.

Dave Cameron wrote about Lee over at FanGraphs, explaining how unlucky he's been since the end of April. His May BABIP was .346, and as of last week it was .437 (!) in June. As you can see if you wade through the numbers above, his FIP (2.47) is actually right with his ERA (2.45).

Sabathia's FIP has also been very impressive; that isn't weighed down (or up, I guess) as much by those first four starts as his ERA is. He has been ridiculously good in his last 12 starts--88.1 IP, 6 HR, 16 BB, 93 K, 2.14 ERA.

So, they have two good starters, at least for now. Sadly, you need five. It's hard to have such a high ERA/FIP with a 3:1 K:BB ratio, but Byrd manages by never striking anyone out, and giving up a lot of homers. Laffey isn't nearly as good as his current 2.98 ERA, but he's serviceable. Sowers was very effective in AAA, but has gotten lit up on the majors in five starts.

Rest of way: Sabathia (125 IP), 3.40 ERA
Lee (95 IP), 3.90 ERA (?)
Byrd (85 IP), 5.20 ERA
Laffey (85 IP), 4.45 ERA
Sowers (70 IP), 5.35 ERA
Carmona (40 IP), 4.20 ERA

Rest of way: 4.32 ERA (4.73 RA)

Bullpen
Overall
PECOTA: 4.10 ERA
Actual: 4.87 ERA, 4.59 FIP

I am not going to go through every reliever, since the makeup of the bullpen is essentially the same as three months ago, but obviously this has been an area of weakness, with a -3.64 WPA. Their FIP suggest that they haven't been as bad as they've looked, but they're clearly not going back to last year's numbers (3.75 ERA).

Rest of way: 4.35 ERA (4.76 RA)

That puts the pitching staff's RA at 4.74. In making the conversion from ERA to RA, I've tried to make an adjustment for what looks like a slightly below average defense, multiplying ERA by 1.095 rather than the AL average of 1.077.

Combining this with yesterday's post, we have the Indians scoring 4.76 R/G while allowing 4.74. In terms of Pythag, that's a .502 winning percentage, which is actually quite close to the .497 that the BP PECOTA Postseason Odds is using. In light of that, the Indians' chances of reaching the playoffs are probably around 8 or 9 percent.

WSAS asked me last night if I thought they should trade Sabathia. As of right now, I think the answer is no, you hold on to him, since they're still in the race. A month from now I'm guessing my answer will be different, assuming they've either failed to make up ground on the three teams ahead of them, or fallen even further back. Even then, though, it's going to depend on who they can get back in a trade, weighing that against the picks they'd receive if they lost Sabathia to free agency, and determining if that difference is worth giving up last year's Cy Young winner.

It's just too complicated of a situation to blindly jump to either "trade him" or "keep him". If, right now, Colletti offered Billingsley and Kershaw (he might!), they'd have to do it. If the Indians have a 1% chance of reaching the playoffs on July 31, and the best offer is some B- prospect, they shouldn't. The end of this whole saga will almost certainly come between those two extremes, but without knowing exactly where it will fall, it's silly to jump onto one side or the other at this point.

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