Bodog AL MVP Odds

On to Bodog's MVP odds. They're all listed prior to their write-ups, so I won't bother posting a table up top.

Josh Hamilton, +200
Last night certainly helped, although his odds haven't changed since Monday afternoon. The Triple Crown talk has fizzled, at least for the moment, as his average is down to .310. The MVP campaign is obviously still in full force though, as he has 25 more RBIs than anyone else in the league.

There are various concerns here. One is how his body will hold up. He played just 90 games last year, and only 26 after July 7. But the more important issue is the quality of his team. Thanks to a team ERA+ of 81, the Rangers are 7.5 games back in the West, and only fifth in the Wild Card race, six games behind Tampa. It's entirely possible that Hamilton wins the MVP, but he's got way too much going against him to be worth it at +200 in mid-July.

Justin Morneau, +400
Morneau is a former MVP, has 68 RBIs, and his team is overachieving. That is essentially his campaign at the moment. Considering the Twins' chances of making the playoffs are about +400, and it's highly unlikely he wins the award if they don't, this is certainly not a good price.

Ian Kinsler, +550
This number actually came out at +400. There is no doubt Kinsler's having a great year, hitting .337/.397/.548 with 23 steals in 24 attempts. The second baseman leads the league in VORP, at 52.4. But the MVP? Even with his first half, he hasn't received much hype at all. He runs into the same problem as Hamilton, of playing on a third place team, except Kinsler is miles behind him in terms of name recognition, public perception, and the ever-important RBIs (Kinsler has 58).

Alex Rodriguez, +750
He missed three weeks, which means his counting stats won't jump off the page at the end of the year, so the Yankees would have to make a run at the playoffs for him to have a shot. He does have a current line of .312/19/53, so it's not unreasonable to think he could end up at .310/40/115. The problem is that won't be good enough if the Yankees don't make the playoffs, and it's far from a lock if they do. He's got a shot, but it's probably more like 12-1.

Carlos Quentin, +1200
I'd say this is the best value on the board. Quentin is looking great in the HR (22) and RBI (70) categories, and his batting average isn't bad at .276 (his OBP is .375; he walks a lot, but I doubt that'll help his case too much). He has the added advantage of his team is the favorite to win their division. If he had more of a name, he'd probably be the second favorite after Hamilton.

As it stand, though, the fact that he was a relative unknown before this year will hinder his campaign. It also makes it unlikely he can sustain this pace--his PECOTA, pro-rated for 650 PAs, coming into the year was .263/17/77. Even considering that, I think we'll start hearing a lot more about him in the national media if the White Sox stay on top of the Central, and he's got a chance at winning the MVP.

Jermaine Dye, +1500
Manny Ramirez, +1500
Evan Longoria, +2000
J.D. Drew, +2000
Joe Mauer, +2000

Dye would have to catch up to Quentin--he only has 56 RBIs--to receive any serious consideration. Considering some of the years that Manny has had without ever even finishing second, he would have to have an absolutely enormous second half. Longoria has gotten a lot of attention recently, but he's still only at .275/16/53, and his team isn't exactly a lock to make the playoffs at this point. Drew is having a monster year--.302/.412/.572--but his counting stats aren't as impressive, and it's likely that his reputation precedes him with a loft of the writers. Most of Mauer's value is in his position, his defense, and his OBP, which aren't exactly in the forefront of the voters' minds.

Francisco Rodriguez, +2500
Grady Sizemore, +2500
Kevin Youkilis, +2500
Carl Crawford, +3000
Mariano Rivera, +3000
Milton Bradley, +3000
Miguel Cabrera, +5000

Did you know K-Rod has walked 26 guys in 42 innings? That certainly doesn't portend well for his ERA over the next 2.5 months. Thigpen in '90 isn't the great comparison, since he had a better ERA (1.83), but his team didn't make the playoffs (he finished 5th). In '03, when Gagne went 55/55 with three losses and a 1.20 ERA, the Dodgers missed the playoffs and he finished sixth, while winning the Cy Young. The best comparison is probably Smoltz in 2002; 55 saves, 3.25 ERA, Braves won the division by 19 games. He finished eighth.

Field, +550
The only hitters I can reasonably makes a case for here--and this is really stretching it--are Vlad, Curtis Granderson, Jim Thome, and Magglio. I guess you can throw Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay in the mix, and maybe some unlisted closers--Papelbon, Nathan, maybe Jenks. Regardless, I can't see there being any value in this. Those guys are all real longshots.