Oakland, 100:1 (VIP, Matchbook)
Current Record: 52-48
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 18.4%
Tampa Bay, 11.5:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 58-41
PECOTA: 78.6%
I think it's time to stop including Oakland every week. PECOTA still thinks they have a shot, but that's not particularly meaningful at this point. Not only have they traded away 2/5 of their rotation, but PECOTA was seemingly overrating their chances to begin with. The A's are available at 18-1 to win the division at Matchbook right now, and nobody is biting.
That's not to say that PECOTA was wrong about Oakland, or that their preseason odds (17-1 to win the division, at BetUS at least) weren't worth betting on. Their 4.5 game lead on the Angels in the Adjusted Standings indicates that things simply haven't broken their way; they could very easily be a few games up in the division, rather than 10 out. And if that were true, it's likely that Harden and Blanton would still be in their rotation right now. Things just didn't quite work out. It happens.
Milwaukee, +300 to win the NL Central (Carib)
+250 to win the NL Central (BetUS, Sportsbook)
These are just ridiculous. The Brewers are -180 to not win the division at Matchbook right now. They're one game back of the Cubs (assuming Chicago doesn't blow their current 10-3 lead against Arizona). Milwaukee's chances of winning the division are probably closer to 50-50 than 1 in 4.
How this discrepancy came to be is pretty obvious. A week ago, Milwaukee was five out, and in third place. They've since won six in a row, including three against the Cardinals (they've actually won seven straight overall, but they started the streak before the ASB). They're now three games ahead of an inferior St. Louis team in the loss column, with Sheets going against Wellemeyer on Thursday night.
4 comments:
Any thoughts on the Brewers at +1500 at Craib to win the WS? I figure even if they don't catch the Cubs they're the favorites to claim the wildcard. They're strong at the top of the rotation, which sets up will in the playoffs. And if they do catch the Cubs, they may well draw the mediocre NL West champs in the NLDS.
Sorry- that's "at Carib," and "sets up well." I'll go sign up for remedial typing.
Yeah, those are pretty good odds. They don't compare to the division odds (which are down to +180), but they have better than a 1 in 16 chance.
Detroit to win the Central at +600 at Carib isn't bad either.
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