More PFP Projections

Commenter Wheell helpfully passed along PFP's 2006 projections in the comments of yesterday's post. Apparently, the NFL was easier to predict in 2006, as PFP's average miss was 2.20 wins, and the Vegas lines came in at 2.19, so it was essentially a dead heat. For the last two years, that puts it at PFP 2.28, Vegas 2.38.

Here are the top 10 PFP/Vegas discrepancies, as well as how they turned out:

So, the five biggest gaps went 4-1, but the next five were 1-4. Not surprisingly, the 2007 projections fared a lot better than 2006.

In conclusion, these PFP projections are excellent, and may even be a better predictor than the Vegas lines. But it's close, and you still have to pay juice and wait at least four months. So they're a good start for finding profitable O/Us, but it's not exactly a get rich quick scheme.