We have an update in this ongoing story:
(Editor’s note: Jeff Passan is not an oddsmaker for a reason. His attempt at laying odds on teams making the postseason was, in the words on one e-mailer from MIT, “ridiculously stupid.” So he dusted off his TI-83, went to work and got them right. Updated odds are now included and mathematically correct.)Here are the new odds:
What's funny is that if he had posted these in the original article, I would've put up a post applauding how realistic they are. The Twins and Cardinals are a bit overrated, and I'd probably have to take a stab at each of the bottom three teams at those prices (as well as the Braves, at anything over 50:1), but these paint an entirely reasonable portrait of the playoff picture. Well done, Jeff.
2 comments:
yes 99/1 or 100/1 for the marlins was plain silly. they are practically even with the phils and mets. plus while the mets have made a run, the phillies still have the better team. i think the phils odds should be even or better than the mets
This is more about the research needed to write a piece than the actual odds themselves. If the guy wanted to do a piece on handicapping playoff odds, he should've taken the time to do it right the first time, rather than half ass it and basically make it up out of whole cloth.
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