Jeff Passan's playoff odds (via FJM):
I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt here (he needs it), and figure that 4/5 means the Cubs and Angels are 80% to make the playoffs (so 1/4), 2/1 means Boston is 50% (1/1), etc., etc.
These add up to 380.8%. That's not even half. Someone should inform Jeff that it's not 1992.
Okay, new contest. You get $100, which you can spread out amongst four teams. Minimum $10 on each team, max. $60. Let's all get rich.
20 comments:
So, for our purposes, the odds are:
Cubs 1/4
Angels 1/4
Red Sox 1/1
Rays 3/1
D'Backs 3/1
Dodgers 4/1
Brewers 5/1
Phillies 5/1
White Sox 7/1
Twins 7/1
Mets 7/1
Cardinals 9/1
Yankees 9/1
Tigers 14/1
Rangers 74/1
Athletics 99/1
Marlins 99/1
I'll go with the Mets for $60, the Rays for $37, and the Athletics for $3.
I'll take the Mets for $35, the White Sox for $35, and the Rays for $30.
The great things about these odds is even giving him the benefit of the doubt (which affects the Cubs and Angels the most), if you compare them to BP's Pecota adjusted odds each team shows up as +EV so no team is really a bad bet here!
All $100 on the Mets! Hedge my ass!
I'll go with White Sox for $35, Twins for $35 and Tigers for $30. That way I'm virtually guaranteed to wind up with no less than $245 (and more if the Tigers make it or if any of these teams is the Wildcard).
This is fun ... can we convince Passan to open up a sportsbook?
"Athletics for $3."
"All $100 on the Mets!"
You guys aren't very good at following instructions.
But, seriously:
$60 - Mets
$15 - Twins
$15 - White Sox
$10 - Tigers
$30 phillies
$20 brewers
$20 yankees
$20 cardinals
$10 marlins
marlins 99/1 seems too long shot. pitching and defense suck, and they allegedly win championships, but to just make the playoffs i am def throwing money down on them
I'll the first one to take the (my hometown) D'Backs, merely because they have pitching and play in a terrible division.
D'Back - $42
Mets - $12
Tampa Bay - $22
Phillies - $12
White Sox - $12
I would go:
Phillies - 5/1 $58
Mets - 7/1 $42
I picked this hedge because I think it gives the best chance for both wagers to hit.
I think Passan actually does mean a 5/9 chance for the Cubs and Angels because otherwise it would be a big gap from 80% to the 3rd place Red Sox team at 33%. Then all of a sudden the next 8 teams are bunched up between 11% and 20%?
White Sox $60
Phillies $20
Rays $10
D'Backs $10
Vegas Watch: My girlfriend tells me that every day. I guess I'll go with the Mets for $60, the Rays for $30, and the Athletics for $10.
Dodgers for 50
Red Sox for 20
Tigers for 20
Phillies for 10
Spankees $20
Phailers $25
Mess $25
Milly-Wau-Kay $30
Contest is now closed. Thanks to everybody who entered. The winner may or may not receive a prize in October.
By saying you can spread them out among 4 teams you limited them to 4 correct?
If that is the case, then 4 out of 11 people couldn't follow your simple directions the first time.
If you were requiring them to spread them across 4 teams (which I don't think you were), then 7 out of 11 didn't follow directions the first time.
Just thought you might appreciate the breakdown, figuring your love for stats.
haha yeah i was noticing that myself, i meant to delete cardinals from mine. amusing indeed mchale
Hey, anyone in the NYC area? I'm looking for a gambling buddy and someone to just bounce ideas off of. It's so hard to find someone in real life who's serious about gambling the way everyone on here who reads this blog does.
I am in New York. For the next month, anyway.
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