Futures Watch: Week 20

Tampa Bay, 7.75:1 (5Dimes)
Current Record: 71-47
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 94.7%

The Yankees' struggles have caused the Rays' playoff odds to increase a few percentage points over the last week, but the last few days haven't been kind to Tampa.

Losing Crawford wasn't the end of the world, but Longoria hitting the DL really hurts. Their lineup wasn't great to begin with, and now they've got a 5-6 combo of Willy Aybar and Justin Ruggiano. Their defense is also dramatically worse now, as Crawford and Longoria are two of their best fielders.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox have won their last three, and have four more at home against Texas and Toronto. The division will likely come down to the wire, although it may not matter, beyond home-field. The Rays are currently 8.5 games ahead of the Yankees, and 5 up on the two Central leaders. There are two scenarios in which Tampa could miss the playoffs: either BOS and NYY would both have to pass them, or BOS, MIN, and CHW would all have to finish with better records. That's a lot of pieces that would have to fall into place; it would take a pretty significant collapse by Tampa, which is why they reach October almost 19 times out of 20.

Milwaukee, 15:1 (Bodog)
7:1 to win the NL (Bodog)
Current Record: 69-51
PECOTA: 87.9%

I'm not sure why this is so high; they're +375/-490 to win the NL at Matchbook. It'll be tough to catch the Cubs, but they're in very good shape with the Wild Card. If they do make the playoffs, they won't have to play the Chicago in the first round, which is a nice break. Their rotation obviously sets up well in October with Sabathia and Sheets. They're pretty clearly the second most likely NL team to reach the World Series; Bodog has them behind not only the Cubs, but also the Phillies, Mets, and Dodgers.