More MVP Tracker; NL this time. The Y/N column is whether the player's team makes the playoffs or not, and their last column is their score in that scenario.
Pretty similar to the AL, except with all-around guys in the same division battling it out at the top, rather than sluggers.
Strangely enough, Ludwick is ahead of Pujols if the Cardinals make the playoffs, but they flip-flop if (when?) they're home in October. That's because of Ludwick's 94-79 advantage in RBIs; each one is worth 0.84 points if you make the playoffs, and 0.55 if you don't. Either way, Pujols will probably finish higher, since he's more likely to sustain his performance over the next 5.5 weeks.
Utley may be a bit overrated here, since his +/- score over the last three years is an outrageous +77, but I do think he'll win if the Phillies reach the postseason. Howard's RBI advantage isn't enough to make up for the discrepancies in BA and strikeouts (which aren't even considered above). The Mets would most likely be sitting at home in that situation, knocking Wright out of the running.
Pujols would be his competition if the Cardinals get in as well; as ridiculous as it may be, the fact that he walks once every six PAs really hurts his candidacy, as it keeps his counting stats down. He could win, but, fair or not, I think a large contingent of the BBRAA has come to take his dominance for granted, as evidenced by his absurd ninth place finish in last year's voting.
If the Mets win the East, Wright moves to the top of the list. You could argue that Reyes and/or Beltran are having better years, but they don't match up with Wright in terms of perception. Reyes won't win because so much of his value comes from the position he plays, and his perceived poor attitude; Beltran won't win because so much of his value comes from how well he plays his position.
If St. Louis makes the playoffs, Pujols vs. Wright would probably be close. Pujols is obviously having a far superior year, with advantages in BA, BB%, and ISO. Wright has 18 more RBIs, but I think Pujols would probably win that matchup, although there's only about a 10% chance both those teams reach October.
Braun was in a good position with his .300/30/84 line until he got hurt, but the nine games he's missed over the past couple weeks have really hurt him. He would need to outplay Wright the rest of the way, with the Brewers making the playoffs and the Mets winning their division.
If the Marlins with the East, and the Brewers take the WC, Hanley's probably in good shape. I'm not going to hold my breath; losing two of three to the Giants is pretty devastating to their playoff hopes.
Odds:
9 comments:
And Utley has been downright average since April which makes it even more amazing he's still so high.
After the games of June 3rd, he was on pace for .325/57/143. Plug that in with all his other current numbers, and he's at 210.0 if the Phillies made the playoffs. Pretty absurd.
I don't understand why you used +/- here, or even defense at all. Most voters don't bother to take fielding into account, and even if they did, they certainly would not use +/- or some other advanced metric. Rollins' fielding percentage was cited last year by a few voters. If you want to use defense in the MVP Tracker, I think fielding percentage would make more sense and be more accurate.
All of this is based on a regression analysis of past MVP voting. +/-, though only a very small part of the equation, proved to be statistically significant.
The voters do not specifically look at +/-, or any advanced fielding metric, but that is not the point. What matters is that +/- is, generally, a pretty good proxy for a fielder's reputation, and that's what we're looking for here. I also tried things like fielding percentage and GGs won, but those weren't meaningful.
Voters didn't cite Rollins' fielding percentage because they wondered about his fielding and looked it up; they had in their heads that he's a good fielder, and they checked his fielding percentage to see if that would be something they could use to try to "prove" their gut instinct. There's a big difference.
There is just no way Ludwick ends up with more votes than Pujols.
You should blow up whatever system came up with these numbers
You got it, Josh. Thanks for the insight.
What is the lowest someone has been on your MVP tracker and still won the award? The playoffs will likely be the Mets, Cubs, Brewers and D-Backs. Amazingly, the Cubs don't have a standout player and the D-Back's don't either except for Webb. If Pedro can't win the MVP in 1999, then this isn't Webb's year either. I could have only seen him doing that if he did hit the magical 30 win mark. That leaves the MVP to most likely the Mets or the Brewers. CC isn't getting it and neither is Prince. So it realistically leaves the Mets or Braun. Is there value in the field at +1000 basically getting Reyes and Beltran? I feel better about Reyes since he is a "spark plug". Have you seen lines anywhere? Also, if the Phillies did make it, would having the chance for 3 MVPs in a row help or hurt Utley's cause? Not that he has deserved it since early June. Burrell may honestly be the Phillies true MVP.
Like the write up... Why Pujolos so much over Braun though in your odds? He would only be ahead of him if they make the playoffs (which you stated is very low %). Your comment of Braun needing to outplay Wright and make playoffs with Mets winning division seems possible - more so than 16:1 would indicate. Otherwise, I agree with everything, i'd just flip-flop Pujolos and Braun, or atleast make their odds very close/the same.
Do you really not know how to spell Albert Pujols' name?
It doesn't matter that Braun is ahead of Pujols if the Brewers make the playoffs, because he's still behind Utley/Wright. He's also hurt.
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