Handicapping the AL MVP Race

Last year, I wrote an article for The Hardball Times about a formula that attempts to predict who will win the MVP award. Basically, the three more important things are the Triple Crown stats, and you get some bonus points for RBIs if your team makes the playoffs. There's also a runs scored component for guys who hit at the top of the lineup, and adjustments for both fielding quality and positional value.

This seemed as good a time as any to look at where we stand with the current races. Please remember that this gauges who will win the award, rather than who should. If you wish to remain optimistic about the future of our society, stop reading now.

Here are the current AL standings, projecting everybody's counting stats out to a full season. The middle column is whether that player's team makes the playoffs or not; I ran the numbers for a few guys in both situations.

I vastly overestimated Drew's counting stats, apparently; he only has 19 homers and 64 RBIs. The guy just walks too much.

For the most part, it looks like a two horse race. If the White Sox win the Central, Quentin's 40+ homers and 120+ RBIs will be enough. If the Twins somehow continue to rake with runners in scoring position and make the playoffs, Morneau should win his second MVP.

There are a few other possible scenarios, none of which seem particularly likely. If the Tigers wake up from their 4.5 month slumber and make a run into October, Miguel Cabrera may have the numbers and late support to win it. Youkilis is a possibility, although it's hard to imagine him hitting much better than he currently is, and he may not have the national name recognition anyway.

Hamilton has finally fallen off his 170-RBI pace, and that's hurt his chances. If the Rangers were to make the playoffs, he'd be the obvious choice (at 124.9), but that's not going to happen. Not being on a playoff team is almost impossible to overcome for a guy whose candidacy relies on RBIs; if his line was more HR-heavy, like A-Rod in '03, he'd be right in the mix.

Speaking of Rodriguez, he could theoretically still sneak into the race; the Yankees would obviously have to make the playoffs, and he'd probably need at least a couple walk-off homers to retain the "clutch" reputation he briefly had 11 months ago. He is really hurt here by the time he missed; if plays every game the rest of the way, and keeps up his current per game pace, he projects to 64.7. Not that it's relevant to this discussion, but A-Rod has also taken over the AL VORP lead.

By the way, I used +/- for the fielding stats rather than UZR. He's not really in the running regardless, but this absolutely kills Dye; he was -41 last year.

Obviously, this formula only looks at hitters; I suppose K-Rod and Lee each have a chance. If we assume it goes to a position player though, here's how I'd handicap everyone's current chances: