In yesterday's post, I wondered:
I'd like to know if the effect is magnified in the first four games or something, but that's going to take some more data collection.Well, I got around to doing the data collection. I split the season into quarters, and did four separate regressions. In each one, the independent variable was "Differential", with the dependent variable being the team's ATS records in Q1 for one, Q2 for another, etc., etc. Here are the results:
I would like to make it clear that I didn't make this data up. Because if I had, it probably would have looked very similar. As expected, the effect is largest in the first four weeks; in fact, that's the only time it's statistically significant. It's possible, if not likely, that there's also an effect in games 5-16, but we'd need more data to show that with any confidence.
Just for fun, here are the five biggest discrepancies between opponents in September matchups. As before, a positive number means that team is overrated by the public, and negative means they're underrated.
3 comments:
Wondering if its a correct assumption that if the Eagles beat (or almost beat) the 'Boys in week two, that their "underrated" factor would probably diminish by the time week three rolls around against Pittsburgh?
Yes, good point. These are all subject to change. Meant to mention that.
It looks like I'll be fading my favorite team pretty much every week in weeks 1-4 if these hold true.
I hope the point SUCKER BETS made will occur because I hate betting against my favorite team in any sport.
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