Remaining Strength of Schedule

I put this together for something else, so I figured I'd post it. The three columns are games remaining (including Monday), average opponents' third-order record, and percentage of games at home.

Including Toronto on this list of "playoff contenders" is probably a bit of a stretch, although they do still have a chance. But I couldn't resist, because their schedule is just insanely difficult. Their next eight series are: vsNYY, vsBOS, @TB, @NYY, vsMIN, vsTB, @CHW, @BOS. Pretty unbelievable.

Last week looked like it might be tough for the Rays, as they were on the road for six, and the Red Sox were at home all week. As it turns out, they actually picked up a half game on Boston. The Red Sox have a pretty tough upcoming schedule themselves: @BAL, @TOR, @NYY, vsCHW. Tampa, with more home games against easier opponents during that span, should have a sizeable cushion when they begin their own tough stretch in September.

You may be noticing a pattern here: all these AL East teams have very difficult schedules. That'll happen when your division has a run differential of +290. That's easily the best in baseball; the AL Central is second at +47 (the NL West is -206). This got me wondering how it stacks up historically. Here are the top five AL divisions since 1996:

In '01, the Mariners and A's combined for +539, and the other two teams were slightly negative. The next year the Angels were suddenly in the mix, making for three teams with 93+ wins. Over this time period, the West has been #1 at +120, with the East at +77 and the Central at -127. From '97 to '04, the Central averaged -257. That is not good.

Anyway, back to the schedules. One thing that sticks out is the amount of road games Minnesota has; they start a home series with Oakland tonight, but after that they're on the road for 24 of their next 30, before finishing up with six at the Metrodome.

Including Monday, the Cardinals play just seven games over the next 11 days, all at home. Just a quirk in the schedule I guess, but that is pretty strange.

Among teams that are close in the standings and play in the same division, there aren't too many large discrepancies. The biggest one is between Milwaukee and St. Louis, although that gap is closed slightly by all of the Cardinals' off days.

One random thing to look out for--Roy Halladay might develop a reputation as "Red Sox killer" down the stretch. He beat them on Saturday, and if he starts every fifth Blue Jays game the rest of the year, he'll face them three more times in the next five weeks.