Tampa Bay, 7:1 (VIP)
Current Record: 89-60
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 99.988%
In terms of the division, tonight's 10-3 win over Boston was absolutely huge. Not only did they open up a two game lead, they also won the season series, 10-8. So now a tie in the standings will result in the Rays taking the division, as that's the tiebreaker if both teams are going to make the playoffs anyway.
This will cause the BPro division odds to be a bit off, since they don't take the tiebreaker into account (at last not yet). The two teams will tie about 12% of the time; the Playoff Odds are giving 6% of that to each team. Because they now hold the tiebreaker, you can add about 6% to whatever BP has as Tampa's percentage to win the division in the morning.
They are also getting very close to clinching a playoff spot:
The Rays host the Twins for four games beginning on Thursday; all they need to do is win two of those, and they'll be assured of a playoff spot. A gloomy outlook, indeed.
3 comments:
I know the Rays have the 2nd best 3rd order winning % in baseball, but how do you translate that to odds of winning 3 playoff rounds? In other words, how much value is in the 7-1 odds?
Assuming they win the division, they would draw the ChiSox in the 1st round where they'll be the favorites but if they get the Red Sox in the 2nd round they will be underdogs.
...with homefield advantage and having a 10-8 series edge on them. I hope they are severe underdogs.
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