About a week ago I sent an e-mail to the folks over at the MGM Mirage, asking I could ask one of the guys at the sportsbook some questions about the upcoming playoffs. Jay Rood, Race & Sports Book Director for all 12 of their Nevada books, was kind enough to answer them. My questions are in bold, and his answers follow.
What did you guys have the Rays listed at to win the AL East, and World Series, back in March?
The Rays were 75-1 to win the AL and 150-1 to win the World Series.
Did you profit from them winning the East, since you took a lot of money on Boston and New York, or lose money, since they were such a longshot?
We do not have odds up to win the division but they are definitely our biggest threat to lose a lot of money if they win the AL Pennant.
What team winning the World Series would cost you the most? The least?
The team we'd get hurt by the most is again the Rays and the team we'd get hurt by the least will be the Angels.
Do you think Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection of Tampa Bay winning 88 games had a substantial impact on how much money came in on the Rays?
Our futures are mostly, if not all, regular guests placing wagers on their favorite teams or hometown teams to win their respective divisions or World Series overall.
For all the preseason futures, is there a lot of sharp money, or mostly just people betting on their favorite team?
Most of the sharp money does not appear until the eight teams are basically a lock to compete in the post-season. That is when most of the professional money comes in because they are looking for the best value.
I know the LVSC has power rankings for each sport; do you have something similar?
We do not really keep power rankings for each sport but I do keep specific power numbers of my own for NCAA basketball. The reason is that there are so many games played each day by such a large number of different conferences that I need to maintain numbers of some kind to make sure we're posting good numbers on a regular/daily basis.
Who do you think is the best team in the league? Who would be favored in a Cubs-Red Sox series, with Boston having home-field since the AL won the All-Star game?
I like the Angels for their pitching balance and of course their strength up and down the line-up. In a Cubs-Sox series I think the Red Sox would be a small favorite of probably -140 or near that number.
How exactly do you set the series lines? Do you go through it game by game, or do you just offer a price you think will receive relatively split action?
I always look at the rotation of the pitchers, the public perception and how we stand in the world of futures. It makes it difficult sometimes but we have to look at all of the factors before posting the lines.
What types of sharp/square action splits do you receive on the series lines and individual game lines, respectively?
The series lines will be somewhere in the 75/25 range in favor of the professionals and the individual games will probably be 60/40 on the regular guests side of the line.
What are you picks for MVP in both leagues? Why?
I like Manny Ramirez in the NL because I really believe the Dodgers would have missed the post-season without him. He of course helped Boston when the other bats like Youkilis and Ortiz were hurting. In the AL I like Joe Mauer because he plays the toughest position in baseball and bats .330. Without him the Twins are probably the third best team in their division and out of the post-season.
Thanks to Mr. Rood for taking the time to answer these at what I'm sure is a very busy time of year for him.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Interview With MGM Mirage Sportsbook Director Jay Rood
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This is good shit.
ReplyDelete"Most of the sharp money does not appear until the eight teams are basically a lock to compete in the post-season. That is when most of the professional money comes in because they are looking for the best value."
ReplyDeleteAll those pros must define value differently than I do.
Yeah, I didn't really get that one either.
ReplyDeleteManny as NL MVP?
ReplyDeleteRegardless, thanks for this read.
I have a feeling Mr. Rood doesn't have BPro bookmarked.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I agree with Fastness.
ReplyDeleteManny as NL MVP would easily be the biggest travesty in sports award voting in my lifetime. He might have helped Boston with his bat when other players were hurting, but he also, you know, took a "trade me or I might not try as hard as you'd like" stance to force his way out of town. That's an MVP, baby!
Other than that, interesting stuff.
and why would you want them to have bpro bookmarked again?
ReplyDeleteWhen, exactly, did I say I wanted them to have BPro bookmarked?
ReplyDelete"Most of the sharp money does not appear until the eight teams are basically a lock to compete in the post-season. That is when most of the professional money comes in because they are looking for the best value."
ReplyDeleteI read this to mean - for example - the Red Sox clinched a playoff spot (one of the 8) and with Beckett pitching his last game they were a -$250 favorite - even though Beckett was probably on a pitch count and Francona was resting many of his starters. The value is to take the other side. Most baseball games are a coin flip to begin with and if you are getting +$250 on tails - that's a great betting value. If I recall correctly - the Red Sox lost that game and the smart money would have made a nice profit.
Games like that are what Rood is describing.
The question was about playing futures Chris.
ReplyDeleteThe worst possible time to play a teams future is right after they clinch a playoff spot.
Hey, you're not banned my my work firewall any more!
ReplyDeleteAfter PECOTA's success with the Mariners and Rays this year, I assumed the salad days of futures wagers might be over. This interview makes me think otherwise. If I didn't know better, I'd almost think he doesn't know what PECOTA is. I doubt that's the case, but the broader point is that he seemed unaware of the value we saw in those teams preseason. Guess there's not as many of us as I thought.
And generally, he comes across as much more square than I would have expected. Manny? Really?
Manny as MVP.... He has to be kidding!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI was in Vegas in December and TB was 75-1 to win the AL and 175-1 to win the Series. I may have the full odds at home somewhere if you are interested. I'm pretty sure I still have the 2007 numbers also.
ReplyDeleteDon't you think its possible he was trying to act like a square probably with the hopes of not giving much away.
ReplyDeletePicking the Angels to win the World Series seemed like a dead give away.
How much did you tell him about the website you wrote for? This entire interview seems kinda wonky for reasons listed above... I would hope the guy that runs sportsbooks does a better job than this guy appears to.
ReplyDeleteOne question... for MoneyLine/Vegas/anyone else. In re: most of the sharp action comes in after the playoffs are locked. Do you think that maybe he means that the "sharps" are hedging their positions at that point and setting up arbs? I wasn't smart enough (read: unaware of this site or Baseball Prospectus in March) to have TB futures, but I'm sure a lot of wiseguys were. I'm sure once the playoffs were locked these guys were doing some arbitraging and hedging their Tampa futures with the best possible prices on a lot of the other teams (whether at this dude's book or offshore). I'm sure that having 150-1 tickets gives you a lot of leeway to have some fun with some other permutations. Plus the pros probably put so much into action that tying up their money for 6 months means they don't do a ton of future wagering since they have so many other opportunities during the year. Maybe?
ReplyDeleteOne last thought... I compare Vegas/Reno sportsbook managers (as opposed to the oddsmakers offshore or at LVSC) to the GMs in baseball pre-Moneyball. They have their jobs and are secure in them and don't have a reason to change the way things have been done for years. When all this new kind of thinking comes into play (sabermetrics, Matchbook, etc) they remain blissfully unaware. And why wouldn't they? They're in the same sport, but who that's really sharp is going to lay -110 at the MGM when they might be getting + money at Match? So they book for the tourists and locals. The cream rises to the top. Vegas is no longer the top. So he can believe the Angels are the best team and offer horrible odds on them and the LA tourists will bet them anyway. It's not the same world. If I'm there, I'll pick off some rogue line, but 99% of my action remains at reduced juice and I'm not even a "sharp" by any definition of the word. Nowadays, I'm sure all he gets is public money and it's made his job a whole lot easier. It's win win for everyone.
Or maybe I'm an idiot.