NFL Survivor: Week 2

Over the last few days, I have gotten into discussions about these silly NFL survivor pools in both the comments here and over at the RMMB. For anyone who doesn't know, the rules are simple: each week you pick one team to win straight up. If they win, you move on to the next week; if they lose, you're eliminated. The last man standing wins. The only catch is that you can't pick the same team twice. For no particularly reason--the only "pool" I'm in is the stupid ESPN "Eliminator Challenge"--I find the discussion of these NFL betting picks to be very interesting, so I've decided to, at least for now, do a weekly post on them.

The first thing to remember is that your picks should consider the size of the pool you're in. Basically, you need to consider how long you're going to have to "survive" in order to win. If you're in an office pool with 10 people, you can afford to use up all the good teams in the early weeks, since you probably won't have to survive very long to win. On the other hand, the ESPN pool currently has 108,498 entries left; I can't seem to find how long last year's winner lasted, but I'd guess it was Week 12 or so. If you pick the four best teams in the league in the first four weeks, you're going to have some trouble navigating through the next eight.

With that in mind, here are some survivor ideas for Week 2.

Tampa Bay (vs. Atlanta)

The key to these pools is to bet against bad teams, rather than betting on good ones. Of course, doing both would be ideal, but you can only bet on each good team once; you can fade the weak teams as often as you want. Despite last week's win over Detroit, the Falcons certainly qualify as one of the worst teams in the league, ranking 30th in Football Outsiders' current DAVE rankings.

The line opened at 9, and shifted to 7 when it was announced that Griese will start. The public has been on the Falcons at both numbers, which is a good sign for Tampa Bay backers. Looking at Tampa's schedule, this is almost certainly the most points they'll be favored by until their Week 17 game against Oakland.

Seattle (vs. San Francisco)

Another solid choice, with the Seahawks (14th best team in the league according to FO) hosting the 49ers (#29). Seattle is favored by 7, and the public is pretty much split on this one. The main concern here is that the Seahawks aren't very good; it's unlikely you'll need to make it all the way to Week 14, so there's no real sense in taking the 14th best team in the league, especially so early. Also, as a general rule, once should probably avoid taking teams that employ Courtney Taylor as their #1 receiver.

NY Giants (at St. Louis)

I've seen it suggested that you should never take a road team in one of these things. I don't see any sense in having strict rules like that, since there's no point in immediately ruling out half the teams, but the logic certainly makes sense. If a road team is a big favorite this week, they'll likely be an ever larger favorite when they play at home in the near future. That is likely the case here, as just next week the Giants will host Cincinnati. The fact that the Giants are looking pretty public--64% at Wagerline, 74% at SportsInsights, 85% at Sportsbook, and 81% in Yahoo's Pick'em--is another reason to stay away.

Dallas (vs. Philadelphia)

Big spread (Cowboys by 7), but that's about all there is to like here, as they're facing a tough opponent; the Eagles are actually the best team in football, according to FO. Dallas is definitely a team you should save; they host the Redskins in Week 4, and the Rams the following week.

The other two biggest favorite are the Cardinals (-6.5 vs. MIA), and the Steelers (-6 @CLE). I see no real reason to take a team as bad as Arizona. There will be better spots with Pittsburgh, although maybe not until Week 12 vs. Cincinnati; the biggest reason to stay away from the Steelers is that the public is all over them, averaging 82% at the four previously mentioned consensus sites.