Last week:
NY Giants: W, 26-23 (OT)
New England: L, 38-13
Buffalo: W, 24-23
Seattle: W, 37-13
Atlanta: W, 38-14
San Diego: 48-29
We were very close to the top three losing, and 57% of the ESPN pool (including this guy) getting knocked out right there. As it happened, we lost 31% of the contestants, and are now down to 52,101.
Via AA Odds, the DC Sports Bog posted the LVSC's Power Rankings this morning, so those will be used essentially in place of PFP this week. To calculate "expected lines", I'm just looking at the difference between the two teams' power rankings, and giving the home team a three point edge. Here are this week's most popular ESPN selections:
Dallas (vs. Washington)
Surprisingly large spread for this game, Dallas by 11; less surprising when you consider Vegas has the Cowboys as the best team in football by a 3.6 point margin. The only problem here is that the Cowboys face a weaker opponent next week, when they host the 0-3 Bengals (expected line: DAL -15.5). Taking Dallas here might be necessary just because of the lack of other options. The LVSC's #2 and #3 teams are both on the road this week, while both the Giants (4th) and Colts (tied for 5th) have byes.
Fading the worst teams in the league isn't ideal this week either, as the three worst teams playing on the road (Atlanta, San Francisco, and Cleveland) are all playing teams that are mediocre at best (Carolina, New Orleans, Cincinnati).
That being said, the second biggest expected line for next week's games is Green Bay -11 against Atlanta. So, by taking the Cowboys this week, we'd essentially be giving up 4.5 points next week.
Denver (at Kansas City)
San Diego (at Oakland)
These are the next two biggest spreads, and the two most popular picks in the ESPN contest, but neither one seems like a viable options. The Broncos are favored by 9.5, but they're very public at Wagerline (71%); it's entirely possible that this line is too high, as the expected line is Denver -6.
The same is true for San Diego. The Chargers are at 70% on Wagerline, and the expected line (6.7) is over two points shorter than the listed line (9). There also should be much better spots with San Diego, like when they host Kansas City in Week 10 (expected line: SD -15.5).
Buffalo (at St. Louis)
Another road team, and another popular pick at ESPN. The Bills are only 59% on Wagerline, but, again, the expected line (5) is shorter than the actual one (9). If you're going to take a road team, this is probably the way to go, but I really would prefer to take someone playing at home.
Jacksonville (vs. Houston)
Here we go. This one doesn't have any of the marks against it that the previous three do. The Jaguars are favored by 9, and the expected line is 10; despite their 1-2 record, the LVSC has them as the 7th best team in the NFL. They're only getting 55% of the action at Wagerline, which is significantly below average for a dog.
This leaves us with two options. We can take Dallas this week, and Green Bay next week; that's an average line of 11. Or we can use Dallas next week, at something like -15.5, and have what is essentially Jacksonville -9.5 this week; an average of -12.5. In both scenarios we're using Dallas, and Green Bay and Jacksonville are essentially equals, so that's a wash, and it looks like taking the Jaguars this week is the better option.
12 comments:
Your analysis has made me reconsider my options considerably.
I was going to go with Dallas this week and then Carolina home over KC next week. (saving Green Bay for later in the season home over Detroit).
I felt going into this week that Houston is a desperate team at 0-2 after being considered a Super Bowl contender, and Jacksonville has been decimated with injuries. It seemed like a classic trap game to me. However, after seeing where the money is going and what the expected line is, I am strongly considering going with Jacksonville this week, and Dallas next week.
However, that leaves me with the issue of when I will use Carolina? They are pretty much a middling team, and if I am going to use them, when better of a time than against KC??? The pool I am in still has a bit under 2,000 people remaining. Once we hit week 14 you have to choose TWO teams every week.
Then again, in my current scenario, I only have Jacksonville as a maybe pick for later in the season, so does it make sense to just slot in Jacksonville this week over Carolina next week?
Sorry I made a mistake above. I wrote that Houston went into the season "being a Super Bowl contender".
I meant to type "went into the season as a PLAYOFF contender". Big difference, don't know how I made that typo.
Your "One to life" floating ad is fucking annoying.
Nice write up.
Ross- I skipped over Carolina because they are, as you put it, "middling"--17th in Vegas' rankings, and 20th in PFP's. Do you know how long your the winner in your pool lasted last year? That's probably the deciding factor; if you're going to have to make it to Week 17, you should probably take Carolina.
They changed the rules this year to EVERYONE remaining picking two teams from week 14 on, so I don't think last year's results are applicable.
Regardless of the Carolina situation, I didn't have Jacksonville slotted in as a definite pick for any of the remaining weeks, so it won't affect my overall plan of attack.
My main concern was that I felt Houston could be a dangerous team. However, the smart money seems to be on Jacksonville, so perhaps my concerns were unfounded.
So, Devin Hester Fan Club, huh?
Are you the founding member?
I had to check my entry to figure out what the hell you were talking about.
I just picked the first group I saw. I think I entered at like ten minutes to 1 on the first Sunday of the season.
Well, I sure am glad I didn't take Dallas today - I would have had you not dissuaded me. The Jags needed OT, but at least they pulled it out.
Yeah, the blog pick got lucky for a second week in a row. The Broncos losing was big; almost half the ESPN field got knocked out. 52101 to 28418, and there's obviously still a couple games left.
Well, I was almost pretty pissed that I didn't go with my gut which was Carolina.
Then again, I was going to pick Dallas until I came here and was reminded about Jacksonville.
So, I must admit, Vegas Watch saved my ass, even if I did end up getting lucky.
When you enter a pool (for $$$) with 4,400 people, luck is going to play a BIG role.
Barring some sort of catastrophic injury to the Cowboys, I don't see anything keeping me from picking them in week 5. The only other real choices would be Carolina over KC or Green Bay over Atlanta. Green Bay would be a legit possibility but with Rogers' injury, there is no way I am touching that.
Unless you are holding Dallas for week 12 (home against SF) there is no reason not to pick them.
I would recommend holding onto Carolina until week 11 when Detroit comes to Carolina.
What pool are you in?
Ron and Mike
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