Last week:
Dallas: L, 26-24
Denver: L, 33-19
San Diego: W, 28-18
Buffalo: W, 31-14
Jacksonville: W, 30-27 (OT)
It's inevitably going to take some luck to do well in a competition like this, but this blog's picks have been incredibly fortunate the last couple weeks, with both the Giants and Jaguars winning in OT. That's fine by me though, since I could've easily gotten eliminated with either the Patriots in Week 3, or the Cowboys last week.
46% of the remaining ESPN Eliminator Challenge contestants were eliminated last week; we're down to 27,901.
Here are this week's most popular ESPN selections:
Dallas (vs. Cincinnati)
The Cowboys are favored by 17 here, and receiving just 42% of the action at Wagerline. This was covered pretty thoroughly last week, and the line is actually a point and a half higher than I expected, despite Dallas' home loss to the Redskins on Sunday. There are times to hold off and save a team for another week, but this is not one of them. If you haven't used the Cowboys yet, you should probably do so this week.
Carolina (vs. Kansas City)
This is the only other spread of more than a touchdown, and the one I'd go with if Dallas wasn't an option. The Panthers may not be worldbeaters--PFP has them at the 15th best team in the league, while the LVSC rankings have them at #18--but they are playing the Chiefs, and only receiving 53% of the action at Wagerline. In a week where there's a huge gap between the #1 and #2 options, the Panthers are clearly the second best choice.
8 comments:
No arguments here. Dallas it is.
I am actually in a medium stakes suicide pool that began in WK 3 with 326 entrants. That # has already been paired down to 150.
I went Seattle (3), Jax (4), and obviously Dallas this week. I think next week is going to be very interesting.
Is there any particular reason it didn't start until W3?
I have no clue, but it worked out well for me because I probably would have had Jax or Sea in Week 2.
I am impressed with these size of the pool considering that it is run locally.
If I make it to next week, I am looking at picking either New Orleans at home over Oakland or Washington at home over St. Louis. I'm not scared of either of those picks. Fading the terrible teams on the road is always the second best option to fading the terrible teams on the road against great teams.
So am I an idiot then for taking Carolina this week hoping to go Washington vs. StL next week then Dallas @ StL week 7? 28 left out of 157 in my pool...only 1 had used Dallas prior to this week.
No an idiot especially considering Dallas' almost loss tonight. However, I would always rather use a team at home than on the road.
My early outlook for the next couple of weeks are:
next week NO home over Oakland
then HOU home over Detroit
then PHI home over ATL (or BAL home over Oakland)
Another possibility is:
Week 6: WAS home over STL
Week 7: HOU home over Detroit
Week 8: PHI home over ATL (or BAL home over Oakland)
And finally:
Week 6: NO home over Oakland
Week 7: WAS home over Cleveland
Week 8: PHI home over ATL (or BAL home over Oakland)
Thats all from me.
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