Last week:
Tennessee: W, 34-10
Pittsburgh: W, 38-10
Houston: W, 28-21
NY Jets: L, 16-13
San Diego: L, 23-14
Washington: W, 14-11
An easy win for the blog with Houston, by my recent standards at least. The Texans only won by seven, but they were up 21-0 early, and had a 28-10 lead after three quarters.
The people who took the Jets and Chargers got what they deserved; I'm not sure how they even made it this far. We lost just 13% of the ESPN field last week, and there are now 8,762 contestants left. I also realized there's an easy way to get a reasonable approximation of how many entrants we started with, just by looking at the percentiles for the people that are 6 for 7. That would be 95.7%, which means there were about 204,000 (an incredible number, really) people who initially signed up.
Teams used (LVSC rank): Philly (7), Tampa (8), NY Giants (2), Jacksonville (6), Dallas (13, without Romo), Minnesota (17), Houston (22).
Best five teams left: Pittsburgh (1), San Diego (3), Tennessee (4), Washington (5), Buffalo (9)
Here are this week's most popular ESPN selections:
NY Jets (LVSC #18, vs. Kansas City)
This is the one that immediately jumped out. The Jets are favored by 13 this week; no other team is even laying 10. They're also getting just 52% of the action at Wagerline, and even less elsewhere, which is always a good sign.There's no reason to save New York, since this is the best spot they're going to have; it doesn't get much better than hosting the Chiefs.
Washington (LVSC #4, @Detroit
The Lions are awful. If you were picking against them every week, you'd be doing just as well as I am. But they are at home, and the Redskins are "only" favored by nine. This is pretty clearly an inferior option to taking the Jets.
Baltimore (LVSC #22, vs. Oakland
This isn't bad, as nine points is probably more than the Ravens will be favored by the rest of the year. But they're getting 66% of the bets on Wagerline, and more elsewhere, and, again, the Jets are just a better pick this week.
Buffalo (LVSC #10, @Miami
The Bills are favored by one. "But they're 5-1! And the Dolphins suck!" They are favored by one. No.
Well, that was not nearly as interesting as last week. There's one choice that stands above the rest, and there are no good reasons against taking it, so I'm going with the Jets.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
NFL Survivor: Week 8
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NE is not even in the picture?
ReplyDeleteI keep thinking I used them in Week 1, I have no idea why. Maybe because that game was close and I just assume all my picks have been close.
ReplyDeleteThey're second, behind the Jets. But pretty far behind.
Keep in mind that the Jets may be without their top two wideouts this week. Coles had a concussion and is likely out this week, and Cotchery is having hamstring/shoulder issues.
ReplyDeleteThe oddsmakers don't seem particularly concerned.
ReplyDeleteThey're actually -13.5 at Pinnacle now.
So in my extremely deep pool there are approximately 300 entries left, and we are picking 2 teams to win per week. We have already used the Jets. So my thinking this week is to go with the Ravens and the (gulp) 49ers...reason being we need to take on a significant amount of risk to win this pool and we will never ever be able to use SF again. Thoughts?
ReplyDeleteTeams my entry has used are:
AZ
BUF
CHI
DAL
HOU
MIN
NYG
NYJ
PIT
TB
Definitely Ravens.
ReplyDeleteI might go Patriots with the other one. Look at their schedule, is there really another spot where you would use them? And that is a much safer pick, in terms of just surviving this week, than San Francisco.
I wanted to go NE but one of the guys I share the entry with vetoed it unfortunately. I think I will do more attempts at convincing tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteIf you had Philly left, would the Jets still be the pick? Only 4 people left in mine and 2 cannot use the Eagles.
ReplyDeletePretty sure the Jets would be the pick regardless. Highest spread by far, not public at all, and no reason to save them. Made this post pretty boring this week.
ReplyDeleteNow they'll lose, of course.
I have 2 entries left. Should I use the Jets in both? Or should I hedge with Houston, Philly, Washington or Baltimore in one of them?
ReplyDeletePhilly could possibly be valuable to me with games left against Cleveland in week 15, and cincy in week 11, and maybe even Seattle next week.
Houston Washington and Baltimore offer no future value. The Houston line is dropping at Pinnacle....sharp betting action on Cincinnati. Makes me scared of Houston, but I don't think Fitzgerald can match points with Schaub. maybe the line is dropping because Houston hasn't covered the spread since the Jacksonville game.
Anon,
ReplyDeleteFWIW, The Houston line is dropping because Dr. Bob released Cincy as one of his NFL selections.
I went with the Jets. It took me about 10 seconds to finalize that decision.
My pool is down to 82 entrants from 323. I guess people take their picks a bit more seriously when they have to fork over a couple hundred bucks to get in.
I'd just go ahead and use the Jets in both.
ReplyDeleteDr. Bob released Cincy, huh? Well, from what I understand he had a good season a couple of years ago, but was horrible last year. How is he this year? What else did he release?
ReplyDeleteMy twin brother is also a fairly renowned professional handicapper nationwide, and he has an "opinion" on cincinnati, which does not qualify it technically as an actual late phone release. Still, it makes me not want to take Houston. Just don't know if I want to have both picks on Jets this week. Jets is a cinch; every year though a cinch game loses and no one sees it coming.
So, I can use Balt, Jax, Hous, or Philly as a backup to my jets pick on entry 1.
"My twin brother is also a fairly renowned professional handicapper nationwide, and he has an "opinion" on cincinnati, which does not qualify it technically as an actual late phone release"
ReplyDeleteI certainly wouldn't feel comfortable fading one of your twin brother's late phone releases either.
Moneyline,
ReplyDeleteI just read your blog. great stuff. i felt like I was looking in a mirror as your contrarian style is exactly the same as mine. We liked the same games last week. I see you are currently 3 games ahead of my bro in the Hilton standings.
Since you picked Houston as one of your Hilton entries, I suppose you are comfortable with Jets as one pick, Houston as the other. F#@K Dr. Bob! I guess he took bama too. I liked Bama.
My NFL pix this week: Lock Miami.
Also, Pittsburgh, Philly, New Orleans, Tennessee....and some more Miami!
I certainly wouldn't feel comfortable fading one of your twin brother's late phone releases either.
ReplyDeleteYeah, well he isn't always right,(5* Missouri over Texas!) and even if Cincy covers, they still might lose outright....I see your point though. Screw it. That's why they call it gambling....
I'm in a double pick em pool. Get two picks each week, cannot reuse a pick for each pick (i.e pick Buff wk one, for P1 and denver for P2 - can't use buf for P1 again, or Den for P2 again - but can use Buff for P2 and vice versa) Still have both picks this week. Have used Buff, Den, GB, NYG, ATL, SEA, JAX, SAnDiego, DAL, CAR, MIN, NYJ and TB, WAS so far. Was thinking BAL and Philly. Whatcha think?
ReplyDeleteSo NE was vetoed by my buddy...this is why I shouldn't share entries. We are going Balt/SF...which I hope will hold up. I just wish I had a twin brother to tell me what to do...
ReplyDeleteTRIFRMBA- I'm not totally understanding the rules. Can you basically use each team twice?
ReplyDeleteJDB- ugh.
I wen double down on the jerks, I mean jets....they better win....The whole damn pool is on the jets....would have liked to have been against the pool, but maybe next week I can root against chicago bears!
ReplyDeletevegas watch - yes - I can use each team twice, but only once for each "pick" - we get two picks each week - Pick 1 has been BUF, GB, ATL, JAX, DAL, MIN, TB. Pick 2 has been DEN, NYG, SEA, SDC, CAR, NYJ and WAS. if one pick loses, I lose that pick going forward and am down to one pick. So if WAS lost last week - which they almost did...I would have only one pick this week - and I could choose any team except those I have taken for Pick 1 previously. Straight up win - no spread (which is kinda a pansy way to do it ) but I'm the only one out of 24 with both picks...
ReplyDeleteFor example if both were active, I could chose DEN, BUF for picks 1 and 2 this week if I wanted (as they were picks 2 and 1 in week one)...but I figure not to reuse picks but take the strongest "unused" pick b/c when it gets down to me and one or two people, I want to have the strongest picks alive I can across the board.
I know this explanation kinda sucks..
No, that makes sense.
ReplyDeleteI don't like the not reusing picks strategy. Yes, it'd be nice to have good teams left at the end, but you have to get there first. I'd go with the Jets for pick 1 and then you've got a ton of options for #2, Philly/Baltimore/Pats/Texans.
If this were week 17 and not week 8, I would roll with the dolphins....easily best bet tomorrow
ReplyDeleteWell, it is a good think I kept harping my buddies because I got them to switch to NE by Sunday morning. Thank. God.
ReplyDeleteNice commentary VegasWatch. great analysis...Take the 14 point chalk every week. By the way, this is how you lose a knockout pool...going with the biggest favorite on the board every week. Jets should have lost. I am sure this week you will have Chicago. In week 10 you will have San Diego. In week 11 you will have Carolina. In week 12 you will have Pittsburgh. Whatever. Chalk eventually loses. Detroit will win this week.
ReplyDeleteHave some stones. Take Denver over Miami as your knockout pick.
Oh, I am sorry. You have no stones. That's why you are eliminated from your pool already.
Anon,
ReplyDeleteYou are one of the people who voted for Aramis Ramirez for the Hank Aaron Award, aren't you.