Playoffs 2008: Brewers-Phillies NLDS Preview

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Series line: MIL +164, PHI -174
Game 1: MIL (Gallardo) +185 @ PHI (Hamels) -201

Here is the best reason I've found to take the Brewers:

Everybody picking the Phillies isn't really all that surprising. The general consensus is that the Brewers are just happy to be here, their rotation is out of sorts, their bullpen sucks, and Ryan Howard is going to hit a home run in every other at-bat. It's pretty absurd that only Kurkjian has Milwaukee pushing it to a 5th game, but maybe the popular opinion is even more dramatic than I had realized.

I'm having a hard time seeing how it's so clear cut. Game 1 certainly isn't looking good; it's not Gallardo (who was excellent in his first start back, striking out seven in four innings) that's the problem, but the fact that he's unlikely to go more than five innings, which means an extended appearance from the Brewers' bullpen. Against Cole Hamels and Philadelphia's offense, at Citizens Bank Park, that's going to be a problem.

The thing is, that's only one game. On Thursday, it'll be Sabathia against Myers. I'm certainly not one to obsess over recent results, but that one certainly looks good from Milwaukee from that standpoint--Sabathia has had one of the greatest second half runs you'll ever see, Myers has allowed 16 runs over 8.1 innings over his last two starts. With all the non-SP factors leaning towards Philly, they'll probably still be favorites, but just barely. Because of the recent history of the two pitchers, I think there might end up being some value in the Phillies' G2 line, but it's definitely a close call.

When the series moves to Milwaukee, there's even more uncertainty. Moyer should have a tough time against a Brewers team that sports an .806 OPS against lefties (.738 vs. RHP). Dave Bush is nothing more than average (if that), but home-field should give the Brewers a slight edge in that one. The potential matchup of Blanton vs. Suppan favors the Phillies--Blanton isn't great, but Suppan is awful--so that one's probably pretty close to a coin flip.

Game 5 back in Philly has the potential to be a classic matchup, with Sabathia (who would finally be on full rest) squaring off against Hamels. So what we're essentially left with is one mismatch, and four games that are pretty even. Based on the predicted lines, the Phillies probably take it about 57% of the time, which would imply a line of -130/+130.

To lean on Sal Baxamusa's work again, the Phillies have the clear edge offensively, averaging 5.08 R/G to Milwaukee's 4.83. However, two factors could increase that Brewers number. The first is that they'll be facing lefties in Games 1, 3, and possibly five. As previously noted, Milwaukee has a large L/R split; their .757 overall team OPS jumps to .806 against lefties. The second is that those numbers assume an "average pitcher" in the nine hole, and CC Sabathia is a better hitter than most SPs.

Milwaukee's bullpen ERA is surprisingly low, at 3.89. Torres' K:BB ratio isn't very impressive, but he gets enough GBs that he's only given up 6 HRs in 80 innings, even with an average HR/FB ratio. Brian Shouse is a nice weapon too have; lefties have just a .486 OPS against him this year (.589 career). Since returning on July 3 after missing six weeks, Gagne has at least been better, with a 20:6 K:BB ratio, although he does still give up way too many homers (six in 27 innings since returning, 11 in 46.3 innings on the year). Mota gets a lot of Ks, but his walk rate has spike this year; he's pretty mediocre.

With that being said, the bullpens aren't even close; Philadelphia's had a 3.22 ERA on the year. Despite issuing a few too many walks, Lidge had an absolutely brilliant season, with 92 strikeouts, and just two homers allowed, in 69.1 innings. Romero has, as usual, been killer against lefties, holding them to a meager .102/.193/.153 line (.346 OPS in '08; .591 career). His right-handed counterpart is Ryan Madson, who doesn't have nearly a large a platoon split, but does have a 3.05 ERA (3.33 FIP) in 82.2 innings. If they need to get a couple extra innings out of the pen, they have Durbin, Condrey, and Eyre; obviously their bullpen is a lot stronger than Milwaukee's, no matter how you look at it.

Infield defense definitely favors Philadelphia; any team that has Chase Utley, and his +/- rating of +47 runs, at second is going to be in good shape. Rollins and Feliz are above average as well, while Howard is slightly below. The biggest discrepancy between the two teams is on the right side of the infield, where Fielder and Weeks/Durham struggle. Other than those two though, Milwaukee is in good shape, with Hardy at SS and Cameron in CF both being plus defenders. The Brewers have the advantage in outfield defense, mostly because they don't have anyone holding them down like Burrell (-20).

The fact that the Phillies have the better lineup, better bullpen, and better overall defense, combined with the huge game one line, has scared me off the Brewers' series line a bit. But I still think there's some value there, as most people have given them up for dead, despite games 2-5 being pretty even matchups.