Playoffs 2008: Red Sox-Angels ALDS Preview

Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels
Series line: BOS +130, LAA -140
Game 1: BOS (Lester) +124 @ LAA (Lackey) -132

I know it's been discussed at length, but the difference between the actual records of these two teams and their third-order records really is amazing. In the real world, the Angels won five additional games, but the Red Sox are 18 games ahead in Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings. I'm not sure how you'd look something like this up, but that 23 win difference between the sabermetric standings and the actual standings has to be one of the largest for any playoff series ever.

The Angels' decision to play in the series with an extra off day was somewhat surprising, and this quote from Mike Scioscia doesn't give much of an explanation:

"It was probably more related in-house, what we're looking to do," Angels manager Mike Scioscia said in announcing the decision to take the longer of the two series, with off-days before Games 2, 3 and 5 spacing it out -- enabling teams to use just three starting pitchers. "We'll be able to trim our pitching staff."

Well sure, you get to use a three-man rotation instead of four. But you do realize that the Red Sox get to do this as well, right Mike? One of the Angels' main strengths is their deep rotation, while Boston's has a clear dropoff from #3 to #4. That is the only thing to really consider in this situation, since any other added benefits can be equally taken advantage of by both sides.

I think the importance of Lester's home/road splits is being overrated. Yes, his ERA is 1.6 runs higher on the road. But a large portion of that is because of BABiP; .283 at home, .321 away. He also has very even splits prior to this year; a 4.73 ERA at home, and 4.75 away from Fenway. That gap is even smaller than that of the average pitcher; in the AL this year, pitchers had a 4.06 ERA at home and 4.67 on the road. Weird things can happen when you're looking at samples of 16 and 17 starts, and Lester's relative struggles on the road this year seem pretty random. And really, doesn't it seem like Jon Lester has gone through some significantly more difficult things in his life than playing baseball in front of a bunch of Angels fans?

If Beckett does end up pitching on Sunday--and Francona's latest comments on his progress seemed pretty positive--the Red Sox have a huge advantage, as he'll be facing Joe Saunders and his strikeout rate of 4.4 K/9. In fact, Saunders probably shouldn't even be pitching in this series at all, as Weaver's peripherals are pretty clearly better. If the Red Sox can just split the games in LA--not unlikely, although they'll be a slight underdog in both--they'll be in good position to go up 2-1, with Lester (and his 2.49 home ERA!) going in Fenway in Game 4.

A couple months ago, Boston's bullpen looked like it was in bad shape, but Justin Masterson's emergence completely changed that dynamic. In 34.1 bullpen innings, he has a 2.36 ERA, with the peripherals to back it up: 29:12 K:BB ratio, just two homers allowed, and a very impressive 56:20 GB:FB ratio. He's also gotten more than three outs in 10 of those relief appearances; if someone (read: Matsuzaka) only makes it through 5, he can bridge the gap to Okajima and Papelbon.

I won't talk about the Angels too much since they're the one team I actually got around to writing a preview for, and not much has changed since. They're still pretty overrated, although Lackey-Santana is an impressive 1-2 punch, and Teixeira really did completely change that lineup. The Red Sox are definitely the right side here, but there's too much uncertainty with Beckett, Lowell, and Drew hurting to take them with much confidence.