Playoffs 2008: World Series Preview

Philadelphia Phillies @ Tampa Bay Rays
Series line: PHI +130, TB -140
Game 1: PHI (C. Hamels) -107 @ TBR (S. Kazmir) -101

This is just a strange combination of lines. The Rays are significant favorites in the series, and are playing Game 1 at home, yet the Phillies are favored on Wednesday night? Obviously, some of this can be explained by Hamels' dominance, and the Rays' inability to set up their rotation after the long ALCS. But it is still kind of odd.

This really speaks to Tampa's depth in the rotation. In the cool little draft Jay Jaffe and Joe Sheehan conducted of the two teams' rosters, Hamels went first, but the next three starters selected were all Rays. When you also consider that Sonnanstine was picked 15 spots ahead of Blanton, that explains a lot, albeit in an unconventional format.

By now you have probably seen this article, about how some sportsbooks are favoring the Rays by more than they normally would, since they took so many bets on Tampa at very long odds to win it all before the season started, and are trying to hedge that risk a bit. I don't think that's necessarily untrue, but it's probably being overstated. If they're so scared of taking money on Tampa, why is the Game 1 line so short? I do think the series line is a little steep--I'd take PHI +130 before I took Tampa -140, although the AL/NL gap is a concern there--so maybe that's the cause of it, although it just as easily could be something else.

Chances are that it won't happen this series, but Lidge's HR/FB ratio is going to come back down to earth eventually (Kemp hit that ball a ton in G5 of the NLCS). Although he did get more ground balls this year, just 3.9% of fly balls left the park against him, compared to a career rate of 10%. Overall, he really is the same pitcher he was last year, with the walks and ground balls both up a tick. In fact, he had pretty much the same peripherals in '06 (except HR/9), yet his ERA was 5.28. Strange things happen when you pitch 70 innings a year.

I understand that Tampa's bullpen has been a strength most of the year, but at the moment the righties really don't inspire much confidence. In his last three appearances, Balfour has gotten three outs (zero Ks) while walking four and giving up five hits, including two homers. Yes, it's only three games, but he also doesn't have a very long track record before this year, with a 5.44 ERA in 92.2 innings prior to 2008. And Wheeler has been pretty questionable ever since he threw 48 pitches in G2. The fact that Maddon relied on those two for a total of two hitters in Game 7 says a lot about what he thinks of them right now as well.

Bringing in Price to close out the ALCS was really cool. I get that, and I agree that he was the right man for the job at that point. But why wait until then? If you're comfortable with Price in such a high-leverage situation, why allow Wheeler to go so long in G2? Why let Balfour pitch to Ortiz in G5? It worked out, but I really don't see why Maddon waited so long to use Price; Tampa could have very easily not had the lead in G7, and at that point he would've wasted one of his most valuable assets.

Is there any good explanation for hitting Utley and Howard back-to-back? Is there a single good reason to not hit Burrell in between the two so you have L-R-L? Maybe there is, but I'm just not seeing it. Manuel split up the powerful right side of his infield at the end of the regular season, and he'd be nuts not to do it in this series, as the Rays have three very capable lefties in the pen.

In case you were wondering, the over/under on the Rays' pitchers' batting average in the series has been installed at .125, although you really have to pay (-130) for the under. Sonnanstine rakes; four singles and two walks in 12 career PA. I say that jokingly, but you just know the FOX will reference that as meaningful evidence that he's a threat at the plate. I'm actually kind of looking forward to that now.