At Matchbook, the current ALCS line is TB -330/BOS +325. This would indicate that the Red Sox have a 23.5% chance of advancing, while the Rays are at 76.5%.
In the World Series market, the Rays are +128/-132 (43.5%), and Boston is +560/-580 (15.1%). The Phillies are +133/-140 (42.4%), which means the three teams add up to 101%, so we have to adjust the two AL teams down to 43.1% and 14.9%, respectively. So if the Rays reach the WS, the market gives them a 56.3% chance of winning, which would make the line -135/+125. If the Red Sox win tonight and tomorrow, they'd have a 63.6% chance, which would make the line -181/+171.
Obviously the line will be effected by the fashion in which the AL champ advances, but those should be pretty good estimates.
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