What, you didn't expect some "world is ending" nonsense from me, did you?
-With two outs in the seventh, FanGraphs gave the Red Sox a 0.7% chance of winning the game. I don't know what the odds were at Matchbook; obviously, if they win these next two in Tampa, this would go right to the top of the list.
-I was yelling at the TV for them to bring in Miller/Price to face Ortiz in the 7th. I understand it's 7-1, but you really need to cut them off right there. Balfour was struggling mightily, and he had been awful in G2 as well. Ortiz has a very large platoon split; he homers once every 17 PAs against righties, and just once every 24 PAs against lefties.
-I wasn't crazy about having Wheeler pitch to Drew, but that wasn't as obvious. Even if you bring in a lefty to get him there, you still have to get five more outs, with Wheeler and Balfour out of the game.
-I have heard multiple people say walking Bay to get to Drew in the ninth was the wrong move, including Chip Caray's very odd call on TBS, saying it was "unconventional". These individuals need to stop talking. In 799 career PAs vs. lefties, Bay has a .923 OPS. In 1,136 career PA vs. lefties, Drew has a .797 OPS. In EIGHT career PAs against Howell, Drew had a 1.125 OPS; Drew's "owning" of the Tampa lefty consisted of three singles, two walks, and two Ks. Walking Bay is not the unconventional move there, it is the only move.
-Maddon will be second-guessed to death, and some of it I agree with (and "first-guessed" him about). But, while the matchups weren't ideal, in the end the Rays' three best relievers couldn't get nine outs before giving up seven runs. Questioning managerial moves is fun, but Balfour, Wheeler, and Howell need to take the majority of the blame here.
-Crisp attempting to advance to second after his game-tying single in the eighth was incredibly misguided. This happens all the time, to "make sure" the run scores. The majority of the time, the run would've scored anyway, and the trailing runner is thrown out; that's exactly what happened last night. Would you steal second there if you had a 20% chance of making it? It's not a perfect comparison, but it's pretty close.
-Josh Beckett is going to start for Boston on Saturday night. This one makes even less sense than the way they set the rotation up at the beginning of the series. What's the point? If you bump Lester up, he's still pitching on full rest. Beckett will have extra rest; who knows if that will help, but the results can't be much worse than his last two starts. Wakefield would then be on full rest in Game 7, so you have him, as well as pretty much everyone else, available if Beckett struggles early on. I just don't get it.
-Obviously, I wanted Tampa to end it there. But how much can you really complain? That was incredible, and Game 6--where the Rays are significant favorites, by the way--should be pretty good itself.
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