Monday, October 13, 2008

Rays Take 2-1 Lead in ALCS

I don't have any particularly intelligent idea for the format here, so I'm just going to start writing and see what happens.

-Before the game, the entire TBS pregame crew came to an agreement that Jon Lester is the best pitcher in baseball. No seriously, this actually happened. I have a feeling that's the last time that will come up for awhile.

-Having Howell pitch the 8th in G3 made absolutely no sense. Just a blatantly dumb move. He pitches a quick seventh when you're up 6-1, fine, somebody's gotta do it. But then after the Baldelli HR there's no reason for him to come out for a second inning. What's the point? Why not bring Jackson in then, and if he really struggles you still have Bradford/Balfour/Wheeler to close it out. You have to manage completely differently when there's a game the next night.

-Upton is just incredible. Nine homers over 145 games, and now five in October already. I know he hit 24 last year, but did his shoulder just suddenly get better overnight? Was he just taking it easy for the first six months, content to steal and bunch of bases, get acquainted with CF, and get on base 38% of the time? Is this power surge just a random coincidence?

Much of the exuberance about Tampa's future is focused on their starting pitching, and rightfully so. But is there a pair of position players you'd rather have over the next 6-10 years than Upton and Longo? I gave this a good ten minutes of thought, and the only pair I came up with that compared favorably was Wright and Reyes.

-What are the Red Sox going to go in Game 7? Because of all these off days, Lester can go on full rest in G6. I actually didn't see Beckett pitch on Saturday (I was here), but I hear bad things. Byrd threw 47 pitches tonight, and would have plenty of rest for the deciding game. Would they really do that? Probably not, I'd be surprised if they give up on Beckett now (even if they should). But man, that is a pretty tough spot for a guy who's allowed 12 runs (five homers) in 9.1 innings this month. Yeah, you have the whole staff at your disposal, but what if it's too late?

-The Rays are considering starting Kazmir in Game 5 (he'd be on full rest), and pushing Shields back to G6. Even after considering that the order doesn't really matter, it seems like this would be making a move for the sake of making a move. The idea was inspired by home/away splits (what isn't?): Kazmir has been excellent in 62.2 career innings at Fenway (3.02 ERA), while Shields has a 10.12 ERA in the awesome sample size of 10.2 innings.

I'll spare you the rant about how meaningless that stuff is (although 62.2 innings is at least something). One advantage of having Kazmir in G5 would be that it's surrounded by two off days, so they could really go nuts with the bullpen when he's at 108 pitches in the fifth. But having a guy whose "confidence isn't where it needs to be" (that's Maddon talking) doesn't seem like the greatest idea in the world, and it'd be nice to have the option of throwing Shields for an inning or two on two days rest in a potential G7. In the end, it doesn't really matter either way, and this move will inevitably be scrutinized way more than is necessary if they do go through with it.

-It's entirely possible that this will all come to a sudden halt over the next few days (I would know), but the Tampa Bay Rays are two wins away from the World Series. That is pretty damn cool.

10 comments:

AdamBez said...

Upton and Longo
Wright and Reyes
Mauer and Morneau?

The Chosen Rob said...

Sizemore and Marte?

Sky said...

No to Morneau and Marte.

How about Curtis Granderson and Miguel Cabrera?

Anonymous said...

Braun and Fielder?

Fury said...

Granderson is 27 so the 6-10 year thing could be extending him a bit too long.

I would agree with Braun and Fielder are a good option, but 3B and CF are a bit more demanding than 1B and LF.

Taliek Brown said...

I think everyone is missing a good one because neither has been consistent in the playoffs, but how about Pedroia/Youk?

Vegas Watch said...

Morneau is too old and although the positional value of a catcher is great, you don't really want to be relying on them to still be good that far down the road.

Braun needs to learn to draw a damn walk. .335 OBP isn't cutting it given his position. And I would worry about how Fielder will hold up.

I was trying to think of a pair for Miggy and glossed over Granderson. They're probably #3, I think, although Cabrera's OBP was down to .349 in his first year in the AL. He' still only 25.

Youkilis is already 29. If you are doing it over the shorter end of that time frame, that's a good one.

Fastness said...

"Braun and Fielder?"

I swear to my eyes that wasn't me. I also agree that Longoria/Upton > all.

With that said I do have to come to Braun's defense. After the ASBreak Braun went .282/.351/.560 (22 walks, 234 AB). Before he was .286/.324/.549 (20 walks, 377 AB). I hope that's indication he's learned/learning to walk and not just noise/distribution quirks. Hopefully he keeps it up. If only he could teach the worst human being ever Corey Hart to do the same.

mike honcho said...

airjakub2


nice

Vegas Watch said...

I know. AIM SN from...5th grade?

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