Edit: See update at bottom.
The Red Sox are still trying to figure out what their rotation should be for the ALCS. I figured they'd just go Matsuzaka-Lester-Beckett-Wakefield, but apparently they're still undecided:
But there is this to consider: If the Red Sox hold Lester out until Game 3, they could pitch him at Fenway Park, where he's been nothing short of brilliant (11-1, 2.49 ERA) this season. If Lester took the ball in Game 3, it could also line him up for Game 7 if the series goes that far. The pitcher who starts Game 4 would also have enough rest to pitch Game 7, thanks to an off-day between Games 4 and 5.This is where I get to quote myself from last week:
I think the importance of Lester's home/road splits is being overrated. Yes, his ERA is 1.6 runs higher on the road. But a large portion of that is because of BABiP; .283 at home, .321 away. He also has very even splits prior to this year; a 4.73 ERA at home, and 4.75 away from Fenway. That gap is even smaller than that of the average pitcher; in the AL this year, pitchers had a 4.06 ERA at home and 4.67 on the road. Weird things can happen when you're looking at samples of 16 and 17 starts, and Lester's relative struggles on the road this year seem pretty random.What's happened since? Well, this certainly doesn't prove anyone's point, but Lester was great at home in G4 (7IP, 4H, 0R, 2BB, 4K) and actually even better on the road in G1 (7IP, 6H, 1R, 0ER, 1BB, 7K). Certainly not convincing evidence that he's a "different pitcher" at Fenway.
In the end, it isn't going to make a huge difference in their chances of advancing; Boston is going to have a slight edge either way. But not having Lester start as soon as possible, to get him as many starts as possible, would just be the wrong move, no matter how you look at it.
The same article also mentions another possibility; who knows if the Red Sox are even considering this, but it's amusing either way:
Then, there is knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, who didn't pitch in the ALDS but could be in the cards for one of the first two games at Tropicana Field because of his career dominance (9-3, 2.86 ERA) under that roof.This brings us to a larger point: why is there any doubt that Boston is going to advance? I mean after all, they are 119-68 all-time against the Rays; they are pretty much a lock. There is nothing different about this year's Tampa team compared to the previous 10 versions (except the name), right?
However, Wakefield was pounded in his most recent start at the Trop, giving up six hits and six runs over 2 1/3 innings on Sept. 17.So, what you're telling me is, Wakefield has had less success against the Rays this year than in the past? Wow, that is just shocking. I certainly can't think of any reason that would be the case. It's almost like his brilliant performance against Ben Grieve, Andy Sheets and Damian Rolls isn't even relevant.
Edit: They are going with Matsuzaka-Beckett-Lester-Wakefield. Francona:
"It’s best of seven. It’s not best of six," Francona said. "The idea is to win the series, not win Game 6. I never quite understood that philosophy. Our idea, the way we set it up, is to win the series. If it’s such a big deal to pitch [Lester] in Game 6, what happens Game 7? We’ll give the guys the rest they need and set it up for the entire series. And then if you’re losing, don’t panic."Initially, I thought this was poor logic, but he's right. As long as you're getting the same number of starts out of everybody in the full seven games, order doesn't matter at all. I just went through the process here.
9 comments:
1)the career stat thing is tired and people need to stop using it. it really is completely meaningless in most situations.
2)the way i looked at it was lester, beckett, dice in any order is pretty good. i'd rather do what they have set up than start lester on short rest in game 1 just so you can give him the sabathia treatment and try to get as many innings as possible from him without considering the consequences.
Having Lester pitch 1-4-7, with the first two being on short rest, would probably end disastrously.
The only question I have about the way they're doing things is that I think it may be more efficient to have Beckett lined up for G7. That will be an "all hands on deck" situation, and it's more likely that Beckett will need to be pulled early. By having Lester pitch that game, you're rendering the fact that you have your entire staff at your disposal nearly useless.
Also, people need to stop saying that Matsuzaka *is* a better pitcher on the road, Lester *is* a better pitcher at home, etc. No. They have *pitched better* in that location recently. You have little to no evidence that they will continue to do so.
Ironic, that by the logic of your Lester point, it also doesn't matter when you start Wake - whether it's game 1 or 4.
In a purely logical sense, I think it makes sense to have Wake start Game 1, but there would be such a toll of media bashing if he lost, that the psychological debit would be worse than any gain he would have pitching in a dome.
Obviously pitcher's numbers against given teams are meaningless when the go back a couple of years. But in this case I think there is at least something to think about because their anctedotal evidence that knuckleball pitchers perform better in domes. I guess it has something to do with the lack of air currents which results in a less perictable movement.
The way to test this, of course, would not be to look at Wakefield's number aginst the devil rays in teh trop, but rather to look at all knuckle ball guys and see the difference between their stats in a given year inside domes and outside of domes. Maybe it has been done before I am not sure.
But at the very least I think there is a little bit more to that than most of the time those ridiculous stats are quoted.
Opps maybe I got that backwards maybe the theory is knuckle balls do worse in domes. Anyway I will see if I can find any study that has been done.
Wakefield career dome stats
3.92 ERA, compared to 4.37 in non-domes. Of course, almost half his dome innings are at the Trop (and thus against bad teams), and at home he's pitching at Fenway.
Here is a quick and dirty way to do it. Look at Wakefield's numbers against the Rays, Twins and Blue Jays historically at home and away. We assume that Wakefield has faced about the same level of rays hitters at home and away over his career (and the same for every other team), which is not perfect but not that bad.
Doing so:
Against TB:
at trop(116ip): 6.6 k/9, 3.6 bb/9
at fenway(95ip): 5.6 k/9, 2.2 bb/9
Against MIN
at metro(73ip): 6.7 k/9, 3.3 bb/9
at fenway(66ip):7.1 k/9, 2.2 bb/9
Against TOR
at sky(122ip): 6.9 k/9, 4.1 bb/9
at fen(147ip): 6.3 k/9, 2.2 bb/9
There doesn't seem to be a trend for strikeouts, but it looks like he walks a lot more guys in domes than at home. This might not be a dome thing though because his overall numbers are 3 bb/9 at home and 3.9bb/9 away. So this is probably more of a home away thing not a dome thing.
So this begs the question...did Francona know order didn't matter? Or did he luck into the right decision based on faulty logic? How smart do we think Francona is?
I'm sure Epstein & Co. know.
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