Still A Deep Hole

With Game 5 delayed and the score tied 2-2 in the sixth, at first it seems like the Rays are in much better shape than they were 24 hours ago*. At that point, they were facing having to beat Cole Hamels; now, they've gotten through Hamels' portion of the game tied, and it'll be a battle of the bullpens whenever they resume play.

But you can't underestimate just how important the fact that it's the middle of the sixth is. Philadelphia's offense has 12 outs to work with, while the Rays have just nine. Before the game last night, the line was -172/+164, with the Phillies favored. That line indicates they'll win 62.5% of the time, and may have even been a bit inflated because of Hamels' recent dominance.

Pinnacle has a live line up right now, which is -158/+150 Philly; that's 60.5%. FanGraphs--which isn't taking into account anything except the inning/outs/score state of the game--has the Phillies at 58% to win.

The Rays eliminated Cole Hamels from the Game 5 equation, but they had to sacrifice three very important outs to do so. They're in slightly better shape than they were before the start of Game 5, but the game certainly isn't 50-50 at this point.

* Edit: Chris Singleton on SportsCenter just now:

There does seem to be a momentum shift back to the Rays, because the anticipation was coming in you got Hamels, you had the middle of the Rays' lineup not swinging the bat well, and then the rain just sort of thwarts everything.

That would be exactly what I'm talking about.