Because I can't help myself, from Matchbook:
That line gives McCain a 7.4% chance of winning. Nate Silver has Obama at 98.1% to win, which would imply a line of -5200/+5200.
Interestingly, Carib currently has the line at -550/+350, so there is an arbitrage opportunity there.
Bookmaker has actually come up with a spread:
Ignoring the juice, since I have no clue how to adjust for that, that means we should expect Obama to win about 341 electoral votes, with McCain taking 197. That's very close to FiveThirtyEight's current map, which puts it at 346.5-191.5.
Bodog also has odds on who will win each state. The closest line is in Missouri, with McCain being a -125/-115 favorite. And finally, BetUS has odds on the winner of the 2012 election, with Obama being a -150 favorite.
Expect another politics post in approximately 1,461 days. Maybe.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Just For The Record
Labels:
Bookmaker,
Carib,
FiveThirtyEight,
Matchbook,
Nate Silver,
Odds,
Politics
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To state the obvious, the time to hit these was a while ago. Sportsbook.com (while being a terrible book in almost all respects) has had states up for a while, and dramatically undervalued Obama in VA (where he was paying + 180 recently), IA (-400), and NM (-250).
ReplyDeleteSome will claim it's easy to say in retrospect, but using the work that's been done on 538 and comparing it to the books has been very profitable this election season.
Democratic Party -1429
ReplyDeleteRepublican Party +750
From Canbet
Wow...the 2012 election. Talk about tying up your money for a while.
ReplyDelete2012 election is now down to Obama Ev, from -150
ReplyDeleteOkay OT, but I need to make my pick tonight. If I have Jac and Az available to me, and anticipate my pool going to week 17, which is the better option? 118 left...we are back to picking 1.
ReplyDelete