Note: I've gotten a few requests to post this on Wednesdays, since some people need to get their selections in by the start of the Thursday night game. That hasn't been possible the last couple weeks, but starting next week I'll try to post by Wednesday night. Anyway:
Last week:
San Diego: W, 20-19
Carolina: W, 17-6
Arizona: W, 29-24
Miami: W, 21-19
Only lost 2% last week, not good. Down to 6,499.
Teams used (LVSC rank): Philly (6), Tampa (11), NY Giants (1), Jacksonville (17), Dallas (5, with Romo), Minnesota (15), Houston (25), NY Jets (12), Chicago (20), San Diego (8).
Best five teams left: Pittsburgh (2), Tennessee (3), Washington (4), New England (7), Indianapolis (9).
Here are this week's most popular ESPN selections:
Carolina (LVSC #10, vs. DET)
Another Lions road game. I'm not sure why the Panthers aren't attracting more action here, but that's okay. Carolina is favored by 14, easily the biggest spread of the week. There also isn't much value in saving them, as their only remaining home games are against the Bucs and Broncos.
Indianapolis (LVSC #9, vs. HOU)
Not bad, but clearly inferior to Carolina. The Colts are a slightly less popular pick, but they're also favored by a good deal less (nine). Most importantly, Indianapolis is worth saving: they host the Bengals and Lions in Weeks 14 and 15, respectively.
Miami (LVSC #23, vs. OAK)
Dolphins are favored by 10.5 here. And they're only the fourth most popular team, but they're still on more than 12% the ESPN contestants' cards. There is also the potential to take them at home against the 49ers in Week 15.
No reason to get cute here; Panthers are the pick this week.
29 comments:
Definitely going with Carolina this week to save Miami for Week 15 (optimistic, I know). 325 or so left in a pool that started with 4400.
any reason not to take the Eagles if you got em?
Because they're on the road against a team that's better than the Lions? Because they're favored by 4.5 fewer points than the Panthers?
Forget to mention I used Carolina already. Eagles a better play than the Dolphins? Trap game for Miami with the Pats coming in next week?
You should never make decisions based on fear of potential "trap games" or whatever.
I can't speak for Vegas Watch, but Miami is at home while Philly is not, and Miami is favored by a bit more.
What about SF? Granted they suck...but I'm looking at the possibility of having to make 2 picks down the road if a certain threshold of entries are not eliminated. We've used Carolina. We would never use them again...they are at home...favored by a decent margin. Don't know why can't get the idea of using them out of my head.
I've used Carolina already, and there are 24 people left in my pool. Over 250 started.
Other teams I've used so far: NYG, NE, BUF, DAL, MIN, HOU, NYJ, CHI, SD
I'm leaning towards taking Miami this week, and following up with either Pitt (home to Cincy) or Denver (home to Oak) the following week.
Looking out to Week 16, there are no easy matches...Miami looks like the best bet, should we save them until then?
Don't save Miami for week 16. It's a road game in KC. KC could easily win that game. KC is playing great ball, and it will be its final home game of the season.. Week 16 is brutal, but there will be better options than Miami on the road.
"What about SF? Granted they suck...but I'm looking at the possibility of having to make 2 picks down the road if a certain threshold of entries are not eliminated. We've used Carolina. We would never use them again...they are at home...favored by a decent margin. Don't know why can't get the idea of using them out of my head."
What are your other options?
Wow, Week 16 is a train wreck. The 11:56 Anon is right though, it's not worth saving Miami for a road game, they're not nearly good enough for that.
Daniel Wells, that sounds good. The Steelers are going to be a huge fave next week. I'll definitely have to get this post up on Wednesday night, hadn't looked at that.
SF in Week 16?!?! ...on the road at St. Louis with the possibly of a healthy Steven Jackson? I think Miami at KC is a better choice since Miami may still be fighting for a playoff spot. Are there any other options? I need to go 17 weeks in my pool...
If Week 16 was Week 1 of the season and you had every team at your disposal, what are your top 3 picks?
I'm in a 2nd chance pool and there are only 7 of us left. We started in Week 4 and I have used the following teams:
Buffalo
Dallas
Minnesota
Tennessee
NY Jets
Chicago
Carolina
I'm thinking of taking Miami this week, but I still have Philly and Indy left too. What are your thoughts?
Thanks.
Miami works.
Teams we have not selected:
Arizona
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Denver
Detroit
Green Bay
Indianapolis
Kansas City
Miami
New Orleans
Oakland
Philadelphia
San Francisco
Seattle
St. Louis
Tennessee
Washington
My issues are twofold. One, if a certain threshold of eliminations is not met then we have to go back to picking two teams per week, with no repeating. Two, the vast majority of the pool has Miami and will probably use them. I'm probably wrong, but I think that either we will be going back to double picks or there will be a large knockout or two. The SF pick helps us in both scenarios.
At least the game is at 4:00 and I'm off next week so I'll be good and drunk by the time it starts.
In week 16, I am planning to use either New England over Arizona, Cleveland over Cincy, Chicago over Green Bay, or Denver over Buffalo...it will just depend which of these home teams needs the game the most....and which of the road teams need it the least...of course in the case of Cle/Cy it is just a case of lasr home game for Cle, and Brady Quinn will have enough experience then.
Other OK teams that might need a win are Washington over Philly, or New Orleans (on road) over Detroit....New Orleans will have nothing to play for though
My gut instinct is that I will trust Bill Belicheck the most in December....
It's definitely a tough week, but KC, to me, is a great bet over Miami in that spot...(not a great suicide pick, but a great bet catching about 4 points at home) For my suicide pool i won't use either one ever, but if those 2 teams were my only choices in week 16 I would actually use KC before I would use Miami....so that tells you something!
I am just happy I have Chicago, Denver, and NE left...a lot of guys in my pool burned NE and Chi. First things first, i have to get to wk 16.. i am using Miami this week and Pittsburgh next week. each one scare the crap out of me...
It will get easy in weeks 13-15....Tennessee over Detroit, Arizona over St. L., and Indy over Detroit.
Teams we have not selected:
Arizona
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Denver
Detroit
Green Bay
Indianapolis
Kansas City
Miami
New Orleans
Oakland
Philadelphia
San Francisco
Seattle
St. Louis
Tennessee
Washington
11. Miami/
12 Denver/
13 tennessee
14 Arizona
15 Indianpolis/philly
16 denver/cleveland/new orl?
17 New Orl/washington
Top picks left - as far as this week is concerned...CAR and IND. Two of the 4 left including me can take CAR. All 4 can take IND....Lost one pick 2 weeks ago b/c of JAX son of a ...should have taken philly. So in the long run - to try and run it...CAR is the best bet? I have these 2, ARI, DEN and TEN among my remaining choices...
I think CAR and IND are almost toss ups - thoughts?
BTW - the jets although a squeaker were a great call a couple weeks ago.
TRIFRMBA- sounds like CAR is a pretty easy choice for you. Especially if only one other person can take them, that is big.
JBD- that is tough. Have a lot more people used CAR than have used MIA?
"It will get easy in weeks 13-15....Tennessee over Detroit, Arizona over St. L., and Indy over Detroit."
Oh yeah, so easy. Lock city. 100% chance those three win.
haha I was thinking the same thing about the "it will get easy" line.
Almost everyone has Miami left. Very few people have Carolina left.
JBD, I don't see much sense in saving Miami. Even if you have to pick two teams in Week 15, you still have Indy (vs. DET) and Philly (vs. CLE). And that's the only time after this week you would even think about using the Dolphins.
Early question for next week….
Would you touch the Thursday night game next week? Pittsburgh is a solid team, but a short week and division game scare me.
Would you consider Chicago on the road against St. Louis instead? Denver/Oakland is another possibility, but I feel like Oakland wants to take me down.
I’ve already used:
WEEK 1: New England
WEEK 2: New York Giants
WEEK 3: Buffalo
WEEK 4: San Diego
WEEK 5: Dallas
WEEK 6: New Orleans
WEEK 7: Tampa Bay
WEEK 8: New York Jets
WEEK 9: Philadelphia
WEEK 10: Miami
WEEK 11: Carolina
Pittsburgh next week >>> Chicago next week.
I see your point. My thinking though was we would have to use Indy/Tenn weeks 13 and 14 in some combination.
After Carolina's terrible performance last week, i am not sold. Should i be? I was considering Philly or Indy instead. There is just something about Carolina that scares me...
And give me another reason other than because they are playing Detroit. In my opinion the Lions are due and if Carolina plays like they did last week and Detroit plays a good game, it spells bad.
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