Sorry that that this site has sucked so much over the past few weeks; I have a bunch of excuses that nobody cares about. Hopefully things will be getting back to normal shortly.
Last week:
Tennessee: W, 47-10
Baltimore: W, 34-3
Buffalo: L, 10-3
Down to 3,026 remaining in the ESPN pool after losing 12% last week.
Teams used: Philly, Tampa, NY Giants, Jacksonville, Dallas, Minnesota, Houston, NY Jets, Chicago, San Diego, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Tennessee.
Here are this week's most popular ESPN selections:
San Diego and Minnesota have already been used. The Bills are favored by one, so that's not really a viable option.
Indianapolis (vs. Cincinnati)
The Colts are favored by 13.5 this week, and are the third most popular team in a week where the action is very evenly spread among the top four. This is certainly a good spot against the Bengals, who are 0-6 on the road thus far this year.
The only reason to hesitate is that Indianapolis hosts the Lions next week in a game that may feature the largest spread of the year. That game looks to be, pretty easily, the most attractive Week 15 option, so it would be nice to hold off on using the Colts for one more week.
Arizona (vs. St. Louis)
The Cardinals are three up in the NFC West with four to play, and hold the tiebreaker against San Francisco, as they swept their two meetings. Regardless of when they clinch, they'll almost certainly be resting their starters in Week 17 when they host Seattle. That's the only other Arizona game that would be a possibility, so there looks to be essentially no value in saving the Cardinals.
That's convenient, since this is a great week to use them. Arizona is favored by 14 against the Rams, and only the fourth most popular ESPN pick, which is very low considering the spread (although obviously the difference between #1 and #4 is minimal). I don't see any good reason to not take the Cardinals, so they are this week's pick.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
NFL Survivor: Week 14
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24 comments:
Hey Vegas Watch,
If you still had the SD Chargers to use, would you still take Arizona this week?
I have SD, Arizona, and Indy still remaining to use and I agree with you on saving Indy for next week...
I'd go with Arizona over SD.
Vegas Watch-
I have Indy, Atlanta, Philly, Denver and GB left. I'm thinking of going Indy this week and PHI home vs Cleve next week. This way I can save DEN vs buffalo in wk 16 and ATL vs stl in week 17. is that too big of risk? maybe I take NE or Denver this week and save Indy for next week. thoughts?
I'm thinking of going Indy this week and PHI home vs Cleve next week.
Yeah, that is probably what I would do if I still had Philly instead of Arizona.
Well - down to me and one other. Best bet is probably Indy this week...still have the Pats, Skins, Ravens, Saints, Gints, Miami, Denver, Jets, SF, ARI and Seattle....so probably Indy this week - Pats next week...thoughts?
Why wouldn't you do Arizona this week and Indy next week?
save denver vs buffalo?? why? is denver a good option there?
If you don't have Arizona or Indy, Denver is probably your third best bet, drawing close to half on Wagerline with a near double digit spread. I suppose that is in part due to their performance last week, though. It's definitely their last good spot of the year. If your question was whether or not Denver will be in a good spot playing Buffalo, the answer is no.
I forgot about Tennessee. That's your third best pick, Denver is fourth.
I have Tennessee, Indy, Zona and Denver. I am using TENN this week, since it's the last best chance to use them, and then prolly Indy next week. Is there any reason to use Zona over Tenn this week (home v the Dorsey led Browns)?
I have Minnesota left. Do you think thats a safer pick then AZ? Or, do you think Detroit is due for a win? They are just SO bad...
I'm heads up in my pool. My opponent will probably be on Tennessee this week and Philly next week (he's already used Indy, Green Bay and Miami). I have Indy, GB, Philly, Miami and Denver still available. What do people think of these four plays:
1) Denver this week, Indy next week
2) GB this week, Indy next week
3) Indy this week, Philly next week
4) Indy this week, Miami next week
"Is there any reason to use Zona over Tenn this week"
No, not really. I mean the Cardinals are favored by slightly more (they're -800 at Pinnacle, while Tenny is -700), but there's not a huge difference either way. And neither will be particularly useful in the last three weeks.
"I have Minnesota left. Do you think thats a safer pick then AZ?"
No, definitely not.
Barring injury, this is what I have. I am only scared about Denver. What would be your take on these picks?
week 14 Indy vs Cinncy
Week 15 Philly vs Cleveland
week 16 Denver vs Buffalo
Week 17 Green Bay vs Detroit
Barring injury, this is what I have. I am only scared about Denver. What would be your take on these picks?
Sort of impossible to have a take at this point when you don't know what the other options are.
"1) Denver this week, Indy next week"
That one, I think. My second choice would probably be #3.
I also am using Arizona this week and Indy in week 15.
The bottom line for me is that week 16 is brutal, as it might be for lots of folks. It is probably the only challenging week left.
I only have 3 viable options in week 16, none of which I am too thrilled with.
They are, in no particular order,
New England over Arizona (in NE)
New Orleans over Detroit (in Det)
Denver over Buffalo (in Denver)
My guess is that New England will be favored by about 4 points; Denver by about 4 1/2; New Orleans by about 5 or 5 1/2.
Vegas Watch, what would your kneejerk reaction be for the above 3 options....I know its 2 weeks in advance, but I would appreciate your ranking them 1, 2, and 3....
any thoughts or opinions from others regarding these 3 coin-flip options in week 16 is also much appreciated...
I would actually expect New Orleans to be more in the range of 5.5-6.5 and will almost definitely be the best option that week if those are your only options. If you still have the Jets, they're probably a better look than NE or Denver if New Orleans doesn't pan out properly, but I still like NO the best, personally.
Adam,
I do agree with you that New Orleans, as of today, will be 5.5 to 6.5; looking ahead, however, if New Orleans fails to beat both Atlanta and Chicago in the next 2 weeks, its season is done. I will consider using New Orleans at 8-6, off of two wins, with 10 days to prepare for Detroit. Att 7-7, or 6-8, with nothing to play for but "pride", no way. Becuase it is more than likely that NO will be 7-7, or 6-8, rather than 8-6, is the reason I project the downward pressure on the line to settle closer to 5 pts, maybe lower, dare say 4.5 pts if Detroit is still winless, and carries all the motivation to the matchup.
Because of all of these scenarios, I let out a wailing primal scream when Drew Brees threw the game away last week, because my best hope was for New orleans to keep winning so that it would be motivated in week 16.
Now, I fear that my next best hope is for Buffalo to be a dead team , Denver to be at 8-6, and San Diego at 6-8 , forcing Denver to be in a must win situation vs. Buffalo to clinch the division to avoid a week 17 game with San Diego.
I would prefer not to rely upon Delta Oneal and the Patriots miserable pass defense in a matchup against the Cardinals, if at all possible, but I might have to.
My other option, which I keep trying to push out of my mind due to the sheer lunacy of the idea is to not take Indy over Detroit in week 15, but to instead take New England over Oakland, in Oakland and then save Indy for week 16 against Jacksonville, in jacksonville.
I know this idea is pure folly however, because Indy will be a 17 pt favorite over detroit, so there is no reason to trade a 17 pt favorite for a New england over oakland pick where NE will be maybe a 6 pt favorite, just to have the option of taking Indy over Jax, with Indy probably only being a 4 pt favorite anyways.....
I am so mad I burned the Giants, Dallas, the Jets, and TB!!! Arggghhh
Who do you plan to take in week 16 vegaswatch?
Arizona this week
Indy week 15
Den (v. Buf) week 16
Atl (v. STL) week 17
Only 40% of my league have Arizona and 60% have Indy. A bunch of people will use Indy this week, meaning less than half of the survivors will have my play this week and next. Week 16 sucks, but things could be come clearer by then.
Who do you plan to take in week 16 vegaswatch?
No idea, really haven't thought about it much at all yet.
Denver over Buffalo will make sense if Denver still neeeds the game to win the division. Have to root for Denver to be off a loss in Carolina. Also have to root for sandiego to beat KC in KC next week. And, also have to root for the NFL NOT to change the TB-San Diego game from 8:15 PM to 1:00 PM.
The NFL may use the flexible scheduling option to chnge the game to Pittsburgh-Tennessee, or Atlanta-Minnesota. This would be a brutal stroke of timing because then Denver could already clinch the division by the time its game kicks off with Buffalo.
Even if the NFL changed the TB-SD game to a 4:15 start in TB, I still might not want to risk a Denver over Buffalo play because if TB crushes SD early, Denver could lay down in the 4th quarter if the division is sewn up. Buffalo and denver are so close in power ratings that its not worth the risk if the team has zero motivation.
New England seems to be the one team that will have the most motivation of all., with no distractions. NE just has to win in oakland and seattle first.
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