NFL Totals Contest Recap

Here is the final top 13:

Keir is the big winner, although I came dangerously close. 12 people, all listed above, beat MoneyLine, so he's out $60. Rob K and bonitis both tied ML (as in same # correct, same tiebreaker), so I'm not sure what we're going to do with that; maybe he owes them $2.50?

The average # correct was 4.08; the average +/- was +0.38. Since someone asked for it, here is the distribution:

The people who finished ahead of ML should send me an e-mail specifying what PayPal address they would like their $5 sent to. The full standings are here: A-J, K-Z.

This Week's Links (12/22-12/26)

RLYW projects the 2009 AL East.

FanGraphs added a "Value" section.

Indiana is not good.

A.J. Price saved the day in Seattle.

NFL Totals Contest: Odds to Win

This is kind of silly, but whatever. I think this covers everything.

Scenarios:
HOU W, either BUF L or PHI L or NO L: Keir
HOU W, BUF W, PHI W, NO W: TJR

HOU L, SF W: Wyatt
HOU L, SF L, PHI W: AL
HOU L, SF L, PHI L, IND W: Sozo
HOU L, SF L, PHI L, IND L, BUF L: Sozo
HOU L, SF L, PHI L, IND L, BUF W: Wyatt

Percentages:
Keir, 52.8%; Wyatt, 29.6%; AL, 9.2%; Sozo, 4.8%; TJR, 3.6%

NFL Survivor: Week 17

Last week:
New Orleans: W, 42-7
Minnesota: L, 24-17
Houston: L, 27-16
New England: W, 47-7

Big week for eliminations, as 44% of the remaining participants were knocked out, and we're down to 1,300.

Teams used: Philly, Tampa, NY Giants, Jacksonville, Dallas, Minnesota, Houston, NY Jets, Chicago, San Diego, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Arizona, Indianapolis, New England.

Here are this week's most popular ESPN selections:

Atlanta (vs. St. Louis)

Biggest spread of the week, with the Falcons favored by 14. The total of 44 is also the highest for any game where I haven't used the favorite, which is important since points scored is the tiebreaker in the ESPN contest. The only concern is that so many people in the ESPN pool are using Atlanta. I don't know that the table above paints a very good picture of who the last 1300 people have taken, but it's safe to say that a decent amount of people will be on the game that Vegas sees as the biggest mismatch of the weekend.

Green Bay (vs. St. Louis)

The Packers are only favored by 9.5, and are sure to be a popular pick against the winless Lions. I can't really see how this is a better option than the Falcons.

Tampa Bay (vs. Oakland)

A decent option, but I've already used the Bucs. The total is also only 39, which doesn't help.

Cincinnati (vs. Kansas City)

Bengals favored by 3. Total is 37.5. No thanks.

Pittsburgh (vs. Cleveland)

In a normal week, this would probably be the best option. But the Steelers have already locked up the #2 seed, so this game is completely meaningless to them. This shows in the spread of only 11; the LVSC rankings indicate it would be nearly 17 if both teams had something to play for.

Washington (at San Francisco)

I really hope that at least one person who made it through the first 16 weeks unscathed is taking a three point underdog in Week 17.

NY Jets (vs. Miami)

Go Dolphins.

Arizona (vs. Seattle)

The Cardinals are only favored by 6, have nothing to play for, and have lost their last two games by a combined score of 82-21. Oh, and I've already used them.

Baltimore (vs. Jacksonville)

The Ravens are currently favored by 13 at Pinnacle, but it's actually the equivalent of an 11-point spread after factoring in the juice. I'm pretty confident that more than 2.9% of the 1300 people remaining took Baltimore, but I'd guess that they're still not as popular as the Falcons.

The main problem with this game is that the total is only 35.5, 8.5 points lower than the Atlanta total. I think that, compounded with the three point difference in spread, is enough to make the Falcons the pick this week.

NFL Totals Contest Update: Week 17

I was hoping things would've cleared up by this point, but that's definitely not the case. Here are the people who can finish with over 6 points, along with how many they've already clinched, the totals they still have pending, and their tiebreakers:

TJR needs a lot to go right, but if Buffalo, Houston, Philly, and New Orleans all win, he'll take it.

Keir is probably in the best shape, mostly because of his low tiebreaker. If Houston wins, and either Buffalo, Philly, or New Orleans lose, he'll be the champion.

If Houston loses, and San Francisco wins, it looks like Wyatt will win regardless of what happens if the other games.

If Philly wins, Houston loses, and San Francisco loses, AL will be the winner.

MLB Totals Contest champ Alexi T. appears on this list, but I don't think he can win. Even if he gets to 7, that means Keir will have 7, and Keir would win on the tiebreaker.

There is also the matter of how many people MoneyLine is going to owe $5 (he can't win). So if that's all you have left to root for, you want the Colts to win, and the Eagles to lose.

On the other end of the spectrum, two people haven't yet clinched a single win: PMickey and DSW. DSW will finish with 0 if the 49ers win on Sunday. PMickey has actually clinched half a point, since the worst his Buffalo under can do is push. He also has the HOU U and NO O pending.

The full standings are here: A-J, K-Z. For "Place", it's just sorted by how many you've clinched, with ties broken by +/-.

This Week's Links (12/15-12/19)

Chone Smith has set up a website to host his excellent projections.

This blog has been referenced on PECOTA's Wikipedia page. A proud day indeed.

After a whopping 47 posted selections, Garsha's Picks has gone tout.

Missed this last week, but Clay Davenport is working on revamping WARP.

Gambling is going to be legalized in Delaware. Sort of.

College Hoops 2009: Big 11 Preview

The second installment of the College Hoops 2009 previews comes (mostly) from MoneyLine, who you likely know from The Money Line Journal, Contrarian Angles, the RMMB, and/or his generous monetary contributions to the contests on this blog. Expect him to be contributing in various capacities in the coming months.

No conference odds this time, as Bodog has taken theirs down, and I can't find them anywhere else. Edit: Thanks to reader Erich for digging up the Bodog odds from a week or so ago.

I thought it was just a stupid cliche to say that the Big 11 is a boring league right up until the moment that I started writing this post. The league just flat out does not possess very much talent right now. Below you will find Chad Ford's Top 60 broken down in terms of players per power conference.

ACC (12): Al Farouq-Aminu (11), Gani Lawal (14), Ty Lawson (17), Tyler Hansbrough (24), Ed Davis (32), Jeff Teague (35), James Johnson (40), Danny Green (44), Kyle Singler (46), Wayne Ellington (47), Grevis Vazquez (50), Tony Woods (52)

Big East (10): Hasheem Thabeet (3), Greg Monroe (12), Earl Clark (13), Johnny Flynn (18), Devin Ebanks (34), Sam Young (36), Dejaun Blair (37), Samardo Samuels (39), Luke Harangody (49), Kemba Walker (58)

Pac 10 (7): James Harden (4), Jrue Holiday (6), Demar DeRozan (9), Jordan Hill (10), Chase Budinger (19), Darren Collison (26), Michael Dunigan (30)

SEC (6): Nick Calathes (21), Patrick Patterson (25), Jarvis Varnardo (27), Tyler Smith (29), Andrew Ogilvy (45), Scotty Hopson (53)

Big 12 (6): Blake Griffin (1), Cole Aldrich (20), Willie Warren (28), Damion James (31), Sherron Collins (51), A..J. Abrams (56)

Big 11 (3): B.J. Mullens (8), Evan Turner (33), Manny Harris (43)

Gonzaga* (3): Austin Daye (15), Josh Heytvelt (48), Jeremy Pargo (59)

* - Not actually a conference.

That breakdown doesn't really prove anything by itself. Having NBA potential and being an effective college player are two different things entirely. You need to look no further than the best team in the Big 11 last season, Wisconsin, for an example of a program that wins on a consistent basis without the luxury of having very much (any?) NBA talent.

That being said I do find it telling that Gonzaga has just as many players in the Top 60 as the entire Big 11. Even more so than last the year Big 11 lacks tremendous upside potential. With minimal talent and even less pace the league may not be anything more than a Tuesday night sedative for most of the country.

Purdue: Any shot the Big 11 had at earning a #1 seed in the NCAAs went up in smoke when Purdue lost to Oklahoma in New York and got blown out by Duke at home in a five day span. A win over Davidson on Saturday in Indianapolis would save face a little, but it won't do much to change the (probably deserved) national perception that the Boilermakers are good but not great.

The discouraging non-conference losses aside, Purdue is the sane pick to win the league. They return 82% of their minutes from the team that was 15-3 in conference play last year, with a point differential that supported a 14-3 mark. Robbie Hummel, one of the most efficient offensive players in the country last season, is off to another terrific start, shooting 51% from two and 45% from three thus far.

The Boilers certainly aren't a lock, but I think you are going out on a limb if you pick anyone else to win the regular season title.

Ohio St: With apologies to Michigan St, the Buckeyes are the most gifted team in this talent-challenged league. And after a great start, with five-point wins over both Notre Dame and Miami (FL) away from home, it's hard to imagine that they will have to worry about defending their NIT title.

It won't be a surprise at all if the Buckeyes rank in the Top 10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at seasons end; they are #2 at the moment, behind only Louisville. Sophomore Evan Turner has the seventh highest steal % in the nation so far, and has also excelled on the defensive boards. Turner looks to be making strides offensively as well, as he becomes the main focus after the departures of Jamar Butler and Kosta Koufos.

Their hopes of advancing past the sescond round of the big tournament hinge on whether or not sophomore Dallas Lauderdale or freshman B.J. Mullens (preferably both) can provide a reliable scoring threat inside. The latter is a future millionaire -- likely to become tOSU's third straight one and done center this summer -- and while I am hesitant to critique a true freshman after only six games, I doubt he'll see the Sweet 16 if he doesn't significnatly improve on his 45% shooting from the field.

Wisconsin: The Badgers, who were somehow underappreciated for the entirety of last season despit being one of the most efficient teams in the country, are off to a shaky start. The losses to UConn and Marquette are one thing, but close games against Idaho St. and Long Beach St. at home, and a two-point OT win over Iona in St. Thomas, are reasons to be concerned.

My guess is that they will be alright though. They always have been under Ryan, and it is not like they lost anything irreplaceable. I do find it funny that, in a season where three point FG% will drop across the board, Wisconsin's opponents are currently making 5.8% more of their 3PAs than last year. I suppose it is possible that the Badgers really, really miss Michael Flowers' perimeter defense, but more likely it is just a sample size issue (Virginia Tech was an absurd 11-16 against them).

Michigan St: If our first preview is any indication the 18-point loss to Maryland is going to look pretty bad come March. However, the 35-point embarrassment against Carolina in Detroit may wind up being considered a quality loss when everything is said and done. I'm only half kidding.

The Spartans are sort of the anti-Wisconsin in the sense that they generally receive more credit than they actually deserve. This is probably due to the fact that they have won a national title this decade and usually pass the ever so meaningless eye test. The latter is even more true this year, with Naymick and Neitzel having moved on.

As usual, Izzo has a lot of highly touted recruits at his disposal, but thus far they really haven't show anything beyond occasional flashes of brilliance; they made a nice run to the Sweet 16 last year before getting blown out by Memphis, not that there's any shame in that. Maybe someone should inform Raymar Morgan that right now he is almost 50 spots below Vanderbilt's Ogilvy on Ford's list. That might ignite a spark.

Illinois: Some of us lost A LOT of money, and a large portion of our sanity, wagering on this team last year. The good news (for them) is that they are 9-1 and making their free throws. The bad news is that their best win to date was at Vanderbilt and they are, seemingly impossibly, getting to the line even less frequently than they did last year (261st out of 344 teams in FT rate last season; 323rd thus far this year).

They may get a lift when Alex Legion becomes eligible in a few weeks, but I don't think their ceiling is any higher than battling Michigan and Minnesota for a spot on the bubble.

Minnesota: I'd rip their schedule, but I am saving that angle for later. Plus they play Louisville on a neutral floor this Saturday, and it's not like it's Tubby Smith's fault that his team drew a weak Virginia team at home in the ACC/Big 10 challenge.

The Gophers return 75% of their minutes from last year, but that isn't keeping the much talked about newcomers from seeing the floor. Minnesota rolls 11 deep, with PG Al Nolen being the only player who has been on the floor over 55% of the time thus far. I doubt they are anything more than a N.I.T. team in 08-09, but with that much depth and only one senior, the future looks extremely promising.

Penn State: William & Mary, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Hartford, Temple, New Hampshire, Penn, Army, Mount St. Mary's, Lafayette, and Sacred Heart.

That is Penn State's non-preseason tournament, non conference schedule. Ed DeChellis apparently has his sights set on a 1st round elimination in the 2009 NIT, and given the way they don't play defense, that may be a bit optimistic.

Michigan: Like their brethren from East Lansing, the Wolverines have a potentially ugly loss to Maryland stapled to their resume. However, unlike the Spartans they also have wins over UCLA and Duke to more than negate it.

Manny Harris might be the best player in the entire league, and it looks like he has some help on the offensive end. DeShawn Sims, Kelvin Grady, Zack Novak, and David Merritt have all been solid contributors thus far to an offense that is 11th in the nation in adjusted efficiency; it doesn't hurt that they're shooting nearly 80% from the line as a team.

Iowa: Much like Minnesota, the future is much brighter for the young Hawkeyes than the present. The fact that they don't return much from last season's pathetic 13-19 squad is a blessing. They're 7-2, but only one of those wins (against Kansas St. in Vegas) has come against a team currently rated above 139th in the country.

Northwestern is this year's poster child for why the Pomeroy ratings should not be used for anything more than casual observation this early in the season. They are currently 18th overall and 23rd in defense, but likely won't finish in the Top 100 in either category; they finished 158th and 206th in those two categories last season, although they do return their top four contributors. The Wildcats also won't finish last in the league this year because....

Indiana is bad. Like probably won't win a conference road game this season bad. The Hoosiers have gotten blown out by every power conference team they've faced, although they did notch and upset at home against Cornell, a game in which they were four-point underdogs. That pretty much says it all right there.

Predicted standings:

Dodgers Re-Sign Blake

Dodgers sign Casey Blake for three years, $16.25MM with a $6MM 2012 club option ($1.25MM buyout, for a total guaranteed value of $17.5MM).
Analysis: Seidman.

I'm with Seidman in thinking this is a decent deal for LA. Unless you think he's a -10 defender (the advanced metrics have him around -5), or that he's going to decline unusually steeply, this seems like a nice contract, especially in 2009, when he'll only be receiving $5MM.

Since I don't have a whole lot else to say about this one, here are our ratings thus far:



No surprises here, I don't think. The difference between Affeldt and Renteria is as big as the gap between Renteria and Ibanez, which is kind of impressive.

NFL Survivor: Week 16

Last week:
Indianapolis: W, 31-21

Lost 15% of the ESPN pool, down to 2,339 with two weeks remaining.

Teams used: Philly, Tampa, NY Giants, Jacksonville, Dallas, Minnesota, Houston, NY Jets, Chicago, San Diego, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Arizona, Indianapolis.

Here are this week's most popular ESPN selections:


New Orleans (at Detroit)

I understand that the Lions aren't very good, but it's hard to get excited about backing this Saints team on the road. They are currently favored by 7, and getting pounded, both in the ESPN contest and ATS.

Minnesota (vs. Atlanta)

Really, this is the second most popular option? A decent amount of their 9% is must be people who filled out the whole thing at the beginning of the season. I've already used the Vikings anyway.

Houston (at Oakland)

Similar to the Saints; favored by a TD on the road against a really bad team and getting a ton of action. Taking the Texans doesn't particularly appeal to me here, and I've already used them anyway.

New England (vs. Arizona)

The Cardinals are assured of having a home game on the first weekend of the playoffs, and have a 95.7% chance of ending up in the #4 slot, so they don't have much to play for at this point. The Patriots, on the other hand, are fighting for their playoff lives in the AFC East.

All of that adds up to a higher line than your might expect; the Patriots are -9 at Pinnacle, but with significant positive juice; it's really equivalent to yet another 7 point spread. The difference between this and the two TD road favorites is that New England is not getting a ton of action; in fact, the Cardinals look to be the public side here.

All else equal, I would always prefer to go with the home team that isn't a popular public pick. This isn't usually relevant, with widely ranging spreads, but this week it is as the three most realistic options are each favored by the same amount. For that reason the Week 16 pick is New England.

Indians Sign Wood

Indians sign Kerry Wood for two years, $20.5MM, with a $11MM option for 2011 which will vest if he finishes 55 games in either 2009 or 2010.
Analysis: Szymborski, Law, Seidman.

The option only becomes a real burden if he meets the requirement this year, and then breaks down in 2010. Which is possible, but probably not much of a concern.

If this doesn't prove that it's a buyer's market for closers, I don't know what does. Not even in the terms of the contract, but just from the fact that the Indians -- who never sign anyone -- signed a *proven closer*.

As an Indians fan I'm excited, if only because they'll have someone competent to finish out games, rather than some clown throwing 83.

Considering the modest length of the contract, there really are an incredible number of unknowns. How injury prone is he? How relevant is his injury history as a starter at this point? Can he replicate anything close to last season's 84:18 K:BB ratio? I have no idea.

Phillies Sign Ibanez

Phillies sign Raul Ibanez for three years, $30MM.
Analysis: Szymborski, Seidman, Snyder, Law (great title), Sheehan.

Can't say I understand this one. How does not offering Burrell arbitration make any sense? We're all in agreement that paying Ibanez $20MM in '10-'11 is something short of a privilege, right? And draft picks; these are good things, no?

Ibanez's bat has held up -- improved even -- quite nicely, with OPS+es of over 120 in each of the last three years. He's a joke in the field of course, with an average UZR of -13 over that same period. But a useful player nonetheless.

The problem is that the Phillies are buying the next three, rather than the previous three. ZiPS gives him projected OPS+es of 109, 102, and 92 over the length of the contract. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say a no-field LF with a 92 OPS+ is worth something less than $10MM; more like $400K. Worst signing of the Transactions series thus far, for me at least.


The K-Rod signing's average rating ended up at 6.4.

This Week's Links (12/8-12/12)

Law, Neyer, Kahrl, and Carroll were invited to join the BBRAA. And yes, Keith is going to continue to call it that.

FanGraphs now has UZR.

Eric Devendorf is an idiot. Allegedly.

Breaking down the Wagerline numbers on this past college football season.

Tango answers lots of questions.

Studeman on CC's opt-out clause.

Brian Cashman is a comedian. So is Szymborski.

Perfect Season Week 15 Update

Using a combination of Pinnacle's money line for Sunday's game (-1500/+1000), and the most recent LVSC power rankings:

FO has it at 53.9%. That's probably because they're high on the Packers (weighted DVOA #9; LVSC #21) and Saints (#8 vs. #15), although they are slightly bearish on the Colts (#10 vs. #5).

Update: Here is a graph of their week-by-week 0-16 odds, using the actual lines from each game:

NFL Totals Contest Update: December

Thanks to reader Laws for reminding me about this. The current top 10:

Pathetic. I'm closing in on that $5 though.

AL has clinched at least six, but can't get over seven, as he has the NYJ under and they've already reached their total of eight wins. The only one still up in the air for him is the Philly over.

For the tiebreaker, if someone who had a really low guess (<2000), ends up in a tie for first, they will win. But if the people tied all had "normal" guesses, I'm going to project Anderson's YPG out to a full season and determine it that way. That seems like the best way to do it, although I'm open to being convinced otherwise.

The full standings are here: A-J, K-Z. The full picks of everybody in the top 10 are here. I'll try to post another update before Week 17.

Yankees Sign Sabathia

Yankees sign CC Sabathia for three years, $69MM with a four year, $92MM player option.
Analysis: Law, Szymborski, Sheehan, Calcaterra.

7/161 would've been fine. But I hate the opt-out clause.

You can break the deal down into two parts, as I did above. The first 3yr/$69MM portion is definitely a good deal for the Yankees; it's been estimated that Sabathia will be worth about $90MM from '09 to '11.

It's the second half that's the problem. If you make a perfect markets assumption -- and that's a bit of a stretch, but not that much -- then there's no possible way that the 4/92 portion has a positive expected value for the Yankees at the time Sabathia picks it up. If he does pick it up, that means that, for whatever reason, it's more than he could've gotten on the open market after the 2011 season. At that point, the final four years are a bad deal for the Yankees.

And if he does opt-out, New York's EV from that is obviously zero, which conveniently eliminates any possible upside after the first three years.

It's not a terrible contract, because he is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and I do like the value they're likely to get in the first three years. But the opt-out really is an awful addition, and things really could get ugly if he gets hurt or declines significantly over the next three seasons.

NFL Survivor: Week 15

Last week:
Indianapolis: W, 35-3
Arizona: W, 34-10

Down to 2,744 remaining in the ESPN pool after losing 9% last week.

Teams used: Philly, Tampa, NY Giants, Jacksonville, Dallas, Minnesota, Houston, NY Jets, Chicago, San Diego, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Arizona.

Here are this week's most popular ESPN selections:



Indianapolis (vs. Detroit)

Yeah, this one. Indy is -17; that's the largest spread of the year, surpassing the Patriots, who were favored by 16 against the Chiefs in Week 1 (they had a different QB, or something). There's no compelling reason not to use them this week, as they are my best remaining option by 10 points, and aren't very useful to save; their last two games are @JAX and vs. TEN.

I haven't given it much thought yet, and will obviously not be making any decisions before looking at next week's lines, but the Saints will probably be the pick for dreaded Week 16.

Mets Sign K-Rod

Mets sign Francisco Rodriguez for five years, $75MM three years, $37MM with a $14MM vesting option for 2012.
Analysis: Law (now in Spanish!), Cameron, Watson.

The 2012 option sounds like it basically vests as long as he doesn't get hurt. I wonder what projection for that season looks like if you assume good health over the next three years, although I'm sure it's a line worth less than $14MM.

Rodriguez's declining peripherals have been talked about at length, but it's worth noting that he did have a fantastic second half, with a 36:8 K:BB ratio in 26.1 innings. So maybe his ankle really was bothering him in the first half, and he'll go back to striking out 12 guys per nine, as he did in '06, '07, and the second half of '08. Or maybe not.

I'm not sure there's much more I can add that hasn't already been said. I'm just kind of amazed that the contract signed by a guy with declining peripherals who just shattered the saves record doesn't seem entirely unreasonable. 5/75 would've been so much more fun, it's really too bad.


The Renteria signing's average rating ended up at 5.1.

College Hoops 2009: ACC Preview

The goal is to get six of these up in the next month. Hopefully this goes better than the Looking to October "series".

The conference odds in the table below were taken from Bodog. The latter three columns are each team's overall, offensive, and defensive Pomeroy ratings from last year.


North Carolina: This isn't how it's supposed to work. One of the five best teams in the country is not supposed to have 85% of their minutes returning, including their top six guys. For proof, look at the teams that finished in the top five in the Pomeroy ratings in each of the last four years:

(Team: Key players lost; parenthesis means the "key" tag is debatable/wrong)

2008:
Kansas: Chalmers, Rush, Robinson, Arthur, Jackson, (Kaun)
Memphis: Rose, Douglas-Roberts, Dorsey
UCLA: Westbrook, Love, (Mbah a Moute)
UNC: None
Wisconsin: Flowers, Butch

2007:
UNC: B. Wright, Terry
Florida: Green, Brewer, Horford, Noah
Kansas: J. Wright
Ohio St.: Oden, Conley, (Cook)
Georgetown: Green

2006:
Florida: None
Texas: Tucker, Aldridge, Gibson, (Paulino)
UCLA: Farmer, (Bozeman), (Hollins)
UConn: Gay, H. Armstrong, Boone, M. Williams
Duke: Redick, S. Williams

2005:
Illinois: D. Williams, Head
UNC: Felton, May, J. Williams, McCants, (M. Williams)
Duke: D. Ewing
Michigan St.: A. Anderson
Louisville: F. Garcia, E. Myles, L. O'Bannon

Florida obviously won the title in '06, and finished first in the Pomeroy ratings, but their rating (.9737) was actually slightly lower than UNC's last year (.9811).

You may recall that that loaded '06-'07 UF team lost five times: to Kansas in OT in Vegas in November, at FSU in early December, and then three SEC road games in February, against Vandy, LSU, and Tennessee. After that loss to the Volunteers they won their last 10 by an average of 15.7 points (12.7 if you leave out the Jackson St. game, which you probably should).

The Tar Heels have already gotten through the meat of their non-conference schedule, destroying both Notre Dame and Michigan St. on neutral courts. (Although, not to take anything away from Carolina, but it's unclear that either of those teams are as good as their preseason billing; the Spartans lost by 18 to a Maryland team that proceeded to lose their next two games by a combined 49 points, and ND lost to a relatively unknown (but possibly quite good) Ohio St. team in Indianapolis on Saturday.) It would take a monumental upset for UNC to lose before their fourth ACC road game on January 11th against Wake Forest.

So what's a reasonable expectation for this juggernaut? Two conference losses seems about right; I don't know that I'd be comfortable taking either the over or under on that (although, to be honest, 1.5 might be a more realistic total.) They'll probably win the conference tournament, but that's unlikely to matter, as something pretty weird would have to happen for them to not be a #1 seed in the big tourney.

They're definitely the best team in the country, and probably by a wide margin. But what's the highest percentage you can put on them winning it all? Even if you give them an extremely optimistic chance of advancing in each round -- say 99%, 94%, 85%, 80%, 75%, and 70% -- that's only about a 1 in 3 chance of cutting the nets down in Detroit. It may seem like they're going to destroy everything in their path -- and that's essentially what Florida did down the stretch three years ago -- but given the setup, 33% is about as high as you can realistically get at this point. There's a reason they're between +150 and +180 to win it all at various books.

Duke: Couldn't figure this team out in March. Still couldn't in June. Still can't in December.

They certainly don't make it look easy. Look awesome in West Lafayette one game, then start out 3/27 from three in a loss in Ann Arbor a few days later.

Do they rely too much on threes? It sure seems like it, but I don't know that they have much of a choice with that roster. Last year they were 64th in the nation in 3PA/FGA, which is about the 80th percentile; high, but not ridiculously so. When it comes down to it, just about any team that shoots 10% from deep over the first 35 minutes is going to struggle, and it's not like they were playing Indiana on Saturday; Michigan now has two pretty impressive wins.

For the second straight year, Duke is a good but rather obviously flawed team. There's a good chance that that'll be goood enough for another second place finish in the ACC, but it's just hard to see them making a deep run in March with this group, and that's obvoiusly the standard in Durham.

Wake Forest: Is it too much to ask to play anyone out of conference? What an empty 8-0 record. Oh, you beat Baylor by 13 in Anaheim. Great. I'm sold.

Wake should be above average in the ACC and a solid tournament team, as they return 97% of last year's minutes and add Al-Farouq Aminu, the #1 recruit in the conference who has averaged 12 and 9 thus far. But we won't know much about them until they host UNC on January 11. (And really, how much will that 20-point loss add to our knowledge base?)

Miami (FL): It's worth noting that the Hurricanes were up 19-7 on Ohio St. before leading scorer Jack McClinton got ejected for slapping OSU's Anthony Crater. So that five-point loss should be taken with a grain of salt.

Miami was probably better than their 8-8 ACC record by the end of last year, losing to Texas by just three points in the second round. And this year they return five of the top six from last year's rotation, with Anthony King being the lone departure.

Dwayne Collins only averaged 20 minutes per game last year, but was very efficient when he was on the court (as long as he stayed away from the FT line), shooting 55% from the field and pulling down rebound at a very high rate. He's up to 26 mpg in the first seven games of his junior year; he could be a very nice complement to McClinton in an increased role.

Clemson: The Tigers have gotten off to a quiet 9-0 start against a pretty mediocre schedule, although they did notch a good road win against Illinois. That undefeated record should really be put to the test in their next two games, home tilts against South Carolina St. and North Florida.

The team that blew an 18-point lead against Villanova in the first round of last year's tournament loses Cliff Hammonds and James Mays to graduation, but returns a pretty solid core. KC Rivers was one of only two guys in a major conference to shoot over 40% from 3 with a turnover rate of under 10% (St. Johns' Larry Wright being the other). Sophomore Demontez Stitt will try to fill Hammonds' shoes at the point, and it looks like senior Raymond Sykes will see his minutes increased after Mays' departure. Clemson's success will likely be determined by the performance of Stitt and Sykes in their more prominent roles.

Georgia Tech: This is an interesting team. Notice that I didn't say good -- they don't play a whole lot of defense, are comically bad from the line, foul too much, and did lose to Penn St. at home last week -- but it's an intriguing collection of talent.

Gani Lawal was a somewhat heralded recruit who had a pretty quite season last year, but he's come into his own in 2008, averaging 20 and 11 over the first six games. Lawal, senior Alade Aminu and junior Zach Peacock killed Vandy on the offensive glass on Saturday, combining for 18 boards on that end and 31 total (compared to 10 and 30, respectively, for the entire Commodores team).

McDonalds All-American recruit Iman Shumpert has also gotten off to a fast start, averaging 13 points, six assists and four rebounds per game, although his shooting percentages and turnovers could use some work. Senior guard Lewis Clinch is academically ineligible for the fall semester, but should be back soon and will step in to complete a rather impressive starting five. It remains to be seen if Paul Hewitt will do anything with it; they had a pretty good group two years ago and failed to make it out of the first round.

These previews are going to focus on the top half of each conference, but the weaker teams won't be ignored entirely. Virginia Tech already has three losses, but by a total of just seven points. Deron Washington is gone, but they return everyone else to a team that had the best defense in the conference last year. If Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen can improve offensively in their sophomore years, they should be a bubble team once again.

Maryland lost their backcourt tandem of James Gist and Bambale Osby and has, as noted above, gotten off to a strange start, upsetting Michigan St. in Florida and them proceeding to get blown out by both Gonzaga and Georgetown. They'll probably experience more of the latter result once ACC play starts, as it looks to be a pretty thin group beyond junior PG Greivis Vazquez. Florida State followed up their championship in something called the Global Sports Classic with a loss against an improved Northwestern team, but then rebounded to edge out rival Florida on Sunday night. They've added Chris Singleton, #12 on the Rivals 150, but lost three starters and will be hard pressed to repeat last year's 7-9 ACC record.

Boston College lost a lot of size, in graduates Tyrelle Blair and John Oates, but Tyrese Rice returns along with the rest of the backcourt. Joe Trapani, ineligible last year after transferring from Vermont, has gotten off to a nice start, averaging 13.5 and seven over the first eight games. They could improve substantially on last year's 4-12 record with a decent amount of production from Trapani and sophomores Corey Raji and Josh Southern down low.

North Carolina State's first four games make Wake Forest's non-conference schedule look daunting, although they did just play Davidson and have Marquette and Florida coming up in the next month. They lost Gavin Grant and J.J. Hickson, two of the most productive players on last year's 4-12 squad, so that's not looking too promising. Finally, the post-Sean Singletary era at Virginia has already included a home loss to Liberty. That offense was bad with Singletary's 20 points and six assists per game last year; they're 75:1 to win the conference for a reason.

Predicted standings:

I don't find any of the "To win conference" lines even remotely attractive. I may be relatively bearish on UNC's title hopes, but they may very well have a 85%+ chance of winning this conference, although I certainly wouldn't advise laying -475.

Somebody is Quite Confused

I'm not sure if it's Steve Phillips or Frank Wren, but:

The Braves are anxious to get the A.J. Burnett deal resolved. In addition to adding a starter, they're also in the market for a left fielder. They've identified free agent Raul Ibanez as the best fit because he hits for power and plays solid defense.

This Week's Links (12/1-12/5)

Inspired by ML, and with some help from Jonny, I've added a "Recent Comments" widget to the left sidebar. It's kind of ugly (fits in well with the rest of the site), but should be useful.

FO has the Packers at 24.7% to win the NFC North; they're as high as 14:1 at some sites.

Big changes at The Money Line Journal.

ZiPS projects the '09 Indians. Third base is looking promising.

Posnanski's lasting Yankee Stadium memory. Sort of.

T.R. Sullivan's HoF criteria: "I like the No. 100."

Giants Sign Renteria

Giants sign Edgar Renteria for two years, $18.5MM.
Analysis: Law, Szymborski, Watson.

San Francisco's shortstops hit .228/.295/.281 last year, so there's certainly a lot of room for improvement here.

Renteria has been absurdly inconsistent over the last five years, and has famously fared much better in the NL. It'd be silly to expect the 33-year old Renteria to return to his 2007 form, when he hit .332/.390/.470 with the Braves, but his Marcel projection is a solid .285/.345/.417. That would represent about a 35 run upgrade over the offensive production the Giants got from SS last year.

He will give some of that back on defense, as he was -9 in +/- last year, and was 7th out of 8 qualifying AL shortstops in RZR. Overall he's probably 20-25 runs above replacement on offense and a -5 to -10 on D; about 1.5 wins above replacement is right in line with $9.25MM/year (if a bit on the expensive side).

Also worth noting, and considering in the rating below, is that the Tigers didn't offer Renteria arbitration, so San Francisco won't lose any draft picks. Sabean is learning, at least. Now let's just hope, for his sake, that this isn't true.



The Ellis signing's average rating ended up at 6.7.

NFL Survivor: Week 14

Sorry that that this site has sucked so much over the past few weeks; I have a bunch of excuses that nobody cares about. Hopefully things will be getting back to normal shortly.

Last week:
Tennessee: W, 47-10
Baltimore: W, 34-3
Buffalo: L, 10-3

Down to 3,026 remaining in the ESPN pool after losing 12% last week.

Teams used: Philly, Tampa, NY Giants, Jacksonville, Dallas, Minnesota, Houston, NY Jets, Chicago, San Diego, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Tennessee.

Here are this week's most popular ESPN selections:

San Diego and Minnesota have already been used. The Bills are favored by one, so that's not really a viable option.

Indianapolis (vs. Cincinnati)

The Colts are favored by 13.5 this week, and are the third most popular team in a week where the action is very evenly spread among the top four. This is certainly a good spot against the Bengals, who are 0-6 on the road thus far this year.

The only reason to hesitate is that Indianapolis hosts the Lions next week in a game that may feature the largest spread of the year. That game looks to be, pretty easily, the most attractive Week 15 option, so it would be nice to hold off on using the Colts for one more week.

Arizona (vs. St. Louis)

The Cardinals are three up in the NFC West with four to play, and hold the tiebreaker against San Francisco, as they swept their two meetings. Regardless of when they clinch, they'll almost certainly be resting their starters in Week 17 when they host Seattle. That's the only other Arizona game that would be a possibility, so there looks to be essentially no value in saving the Cardinals.

That's convenient, since this is a great week to use them. Arizona is favored by 14 against the Rams, and only the fourth most popular ESPN pick, which is very low considering the spread (although obviously the difference between #1 and #4 is minimal). I don't see any good reason to not take the Cardinals, so they are this week's pick.

Athletics Re-Sign Ellis

A's re-sign Mark Ellis for two years, $11MM, with a $5.5MM 2011 club option.
Analysis: Athletics Nation.

Forgot about this one since it happened so early (October 19) that he didn't make any of the FA rankings, although I do remember being upset because he would've been a nice fit for the Indians.

Ellis had some issues with his shoulder last year, causing him to play only 117 games while hitting .233/.321/.373. But on his career he's an average hitter, and more importantly a fantastic defender, averaging +19 plays in Dewan's system over the last three years. As noted in the AN post linked above, this could be a great deal for Oakland if Ellis is healthy and continues to excel defensively.


The Dempster signing's average rating ended up at 5.9.