College Hoops 2009: Big East Preview

I do understand that at some point these cease to qualify as "previews". Whatever. The conference odds below are from Saturday morning, and aren't up at the moment.

Pittsburgh: You get the feeling that the "best team in the Big East" title will have a new owner on a weekly basis over the next few months, but it'd be tough to argue against the Panthers right now. Their win over Georgetown at the Verizon Center on Saturday was every bit as impressive as the 70-54 final score indicated; DeJuan Blair had as many rebounds (17) as the entire Hoyas team. Blair's dominance on the glass is hardly a new thing, as Pomeroy's stats have him as the top offensive rebounder in the country, and it's not particularly close.

Guards Ronald Ramon and Keith Benjamin both graudated, but that hasn't really been a problem. Brooklyn native Levance Fields has recovered quite nicely from last year's foot injury, and has posted an assist to turnover ratio of almost 5:1 thus far. Freshman Jermaine Dixon, absent from the Rivals 150, came in and immediately stepped into the starting lineup, which is rather impressive (although he did struggle against Georgetown).

As you can see above, Pitt's weakness last year was their defense, as they were just 54th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. They've improved significantly on that mark this year, moving all the way up to 10th, and were impressive in their Big East opener, holding the perennially efficient Hoyas to just 54 points in 59 possessions.

Are they the best team in the country? No, of course not. But I'd put them at #2, and I'm not sure what the argument really is for anyone else.

Connecticut: The Huskies have the reputation of being a great defensive team, mainly because of the presence of Hasheem Thabeet. And Thabeet certainly is good at what he does, as UConn led the league in block percentage last year, and held opponents to just 40.4% from 2, the second best mark in the country. But, as repeatedly noted over at Basketball Propectus, that is simply not enough.

There is more to defense than just having an intimidating force inside, and the Huskies were a prime example of that last year. Despite the impressive traits noted above, they were only 41st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. This happens when you never turn your opponents over (332nd in the country), and are weak on the defensive boards (207th). They have improvement in the latter category thus far, as Thabeet's grabbed an impressive 26% of opponents' defensive boards (up from 15% last year, against more difficult competition of course), but they still don't force opponents to turn the ball over.

They ended up winning in overtime, but these defensive struggles, and their over reliance on Thabeet, really showed against Gonzaga. Thabeet struggled with foul trouble throughout the game, and when he was out the Zags got the ball inside at will, with the 6'2 Jeremy Pargo repeatedly posting up inside. Even when UConn's big man was in the game, he wasn't much of a factor, as the man he was guarding (usually Austin Daye) just hung out on the perimeter; Thabeet had just two rebounds in 19 minutes before fouling out.

This is not to say the Huskies aren't good, as their defense is decent overall, and they're excellent offensively. Thabeet, and to a lesser extent Adrien, really crash the boards on that end, and are excellent from 2. Price seems to be rounding back into form after tearing his ACL in the tournament last year. He's shooting 44% from 3, including going 6/9 and hitting a tough shot to send it into OT against Gonzaga. They were never the #2 team in the country, but they're probably a legitimate top 5 team at this point.

Georgetown: The Notre Dame game on Monday night was very winnable; going 2-1 over the eight day stretch where they played @UConn, vs Georgetown, @Notre Dame would have been very impressive. As it happened, the Hoyas had no trouble getting to the basket (hardly surprising), but really struggled to finish around the rim. That, combined with uncharacteristically poor FT shooting (13/22), and somehwat characteristically poor 3-point shooting (4/18) added up to a 73-67 loss in South Bend.

It's hard to know what to make of these guys. Monroe is a force offensively -- obviously in terms of scoring, but he can really pass as well -- and racks up his share of blocks and steals on the defensive end. They miss Wallace, but Wright and Freeman should be able to fill in for him as the year progresses. The one area of concern is rebounding, where there's no replacement for Hibbert's production. They were only middle of the pack nationally in that category last year, and have really fallen off, down to 313th in the country on the defensive glass; this was never more evident than in the loss to Pitt, when they had no answer for Blair.

They're still fantastic at forcing opponents' misses, ranking first in the nation in eFG% against. You get the feeling that the rebounding deficiency is going to hurt them though, especially going up against the Blairs and Thabeets of the world on a consistent basis.

Notre Dame: It's a hell of an offense, I'll give them that much. McAlarney and the underrated Ayers can both really shoot. Harangody has an unbelievable touch inside 12 feet, and is pretty tough to stop with his back to the basket. Add in the fact that none of those three turn the ball over very often, and you've got a unit that should improve on their #22 Offensive Efficiency ranking of a year ago.

That's great and all, but being 163rd in Defensive Efficiency really caps your potential. They just don't force any turnovers-- 330th in the country last year, 300th thus far this season. With Rob Kurz having graduated, Harangody is the only threat to alter your shot, and it seems like he'll be overmatched by the other big men in the conference's top teams. There's really no reason to think that they'll improve substantially on this side of the ball, which means you can probably expect a similar result to last year (losing in the 2nd, or maybe 3rd, round) in March.

Louisville: Well, you certainly can't blame the defense for the slow start, as they're currently ranked first in the country. Most of that is inside, as Terrence Williams and Earl Clark are both excellent on the boards, and those two and freshman Samardo Samuels have them 9th in the nation in block percentage.

Offense is a different story, as David Padgett's departure is pretty apparent. Everything ran through him last year, and it shows in his absence. Despite being a very mediocre three-point shooting team, they've shot more threes than 80% of the country. This is how you lose to Western Kentucky at home; the Cardinals were a pathetic 6/30 from deep in the game. Until they build more of an offense that revolves around Clark and Williams inside -- who really should be up to the task -- they're going to struggle in this horrifying conference.

Syracuse: The Cuse are kind of the anti-Georgetown in that they begin conference play with games against Seton Hall, South Florida, DePaul, and Rutgers. They've already started that stretch 2-0, although the win @USF was only by five. That level of competition obviously won't last long in this conference; their next four games, against Georgetown, Notre Dame, Pitt, and Louisville, should be fun.

Syracuse is shooting a ridiculous 58% from 2, although that's the only thing they really have going for them on offense. Flynn, Harris, and Devendorf can all get to the rim, and Onuaku is shooting a ridiculous 73% from the field. That last figure is unsustainable, but not a complete fluke, as he was at 63% last year. The problem is that they don't shoot the three very well at all, and turn the ball over way too often. Flynn and Devendorf are going to have to cut down on very high turnover rates for this offense to be efficient enough to hold its own in the Big East.

Villanova: The Wildcats return everybody from a team that went 9-9 in conference last season. As always, they are guard heavy, although Cunningham and Pena have been good enough on the boards that rebounding hasn't been an issue (yet). Corey Stokes either really worked on his shot over the summer, or has had an impressive swing of luck; he was 40/135 (30%) from three last year, but has improved to 35/78 (45%) over the first two months of the season. Add in the fact that the average 3P% has declined from 35% to 34% with the new line, and that is pretty damn impressive.

In another conference, this would be an interesting tema, with no offseason departures; in the Big East it's probably about .500 team that ends up being a 7-11 seed in the tournament.

Marquette: The last hurrah for the three-headed monster of McNeal, Matthews, and James; the 2010 version of this team is sure to be quite an adventure. They're not what you'd expect out of a guard dominated team, as all three were significantly below average from deep prior to this year; McNeal and Matthews have improved this season, while James should probably just give it up. They don't really excel in any single area on offense, but they're in the top 100 in every category, making for a pretty efficient unit overall. Hayward picks up the slack down low, and leads the team in 2-point FG%. With Barro gone but everyone else a year older, something very similar to last year's 11-7 conference record and #7 seed in the tournament is probably a reasonable expectation.

West Virginia: I somehow have not seen a single second second of Mountaineers basketball over the first two months of the year. Two impressive things right off the bat though: they're currently #1 in Pomeroy's ratings, and they're favored by 3 points against mighty UConn tonight. So yes, I'd say they're likely better than their #25 AP ranking.

After losses on neutral floors to Kentucky and Davidson, and a close win at Duquesne, West Virginia has been absolutely dominant over their last four games, going 4-0 with an average score of 85-54. I suppose it's a little cheap throwing their 45-point home win against Radford in there, but the other three were legit; a home win against a Miami (OH) team that played with both UCLA and Xavier on the road, and victories at Ohio State and Seton Hall.

Their offense has been just as good as last year, even without Alexander and Nichols. They're getting it done in a different fashion, as they've become a dynamite offensive rebounding team (#2 in the country). Freshman Devin Ebanks (Rivals #11) leads the charge, and he's not alone, as they have four other guys in the top 500 in the nation. The three-point shooting has been spotty thus far -- not sure why Ebanks is taking so many, he's 4/21 -- but Ruoff should be good for 40% from deep all year.

Their real strength has been defense, where they've held opponents to 27% from 3 (a far cry from last year's 36%), and are 4th in the country in turnover percentage. Those numbers will almost certainly regress as they get into Big East play, but Bob Huggins' squad is definitely one to keep an eye on.

I am skipping the last seven teams in protest of the size of this conference. It has nothing to do with the fact that I've already written 2000 words, or that none of the remaining teams are particularly good or interesting. Your move, Marinatto.

Projected NCAA seeds: (1) Pitt, (2) UConn, (4) Georgetown, (4) Louisville, (5) West Virginia, (5) Notre Dame, (7) Marquette, (8) Syracuse, (9) Villanova.