College Hoops Futures Watch, Take 1

I'm going to try to start doing this on some infrequent basis. For now I've taken the top eight teams in the country according to the WSEX long-term market (which should be at least somewhat efficient, since you can take both long and short positions on teams), and looked up their odds to win it all on various sites. It turned out that only two different sites -- The Greek and VIP -- had the best odds for any particular team, so those are the only ones listed here.

The way the WSEX market works is you get $100 if the team you buy wins it all, $50 if the lose in the championship game, and $25 if they lose on F4 Saturday. The left number is how much you can sell them for; the right is how much they can be bought for.

North Carolina
WSEX: 42/47
Best odds: 2.5:1 (The Greek)
Record: 14-2 (0-2)
Pomeroy rank: 3

Even when the Tar Heels were 8-0 and had destroyed Kentucky, Notre Dame, and Michigan St. by a total of 69 points, I still couldn't see their odds of winning it all being higher than 1 in 3. Now that they've started 0-2 in conference and we know that this isn't the unstoppable juggernaut we thought it might be, +250 surely isn't a good price. They are better than their current #6 standing in the ESPN poll, but it's not entirely clear where in the top five they fall.

Duke
WSEX: 14/18
Best odds: 16:1 (The Greek)
Record: 14-1 (2-0)
Pomeroy rank: 1

There's a lot to like here; I'm not entirely sure why they still have better odds than a team like UConn. It probably has a lot to do with their performance in the tournament last year. That is not a very good reason. They have Pomeroy's #1 defense, and their offense is in the top 20 as well. Honestly I'm sitting here trying to figure out a reason not to bet on them, but I can't find much. They do have a very difficult schedule the rest of the way, with two games against both Wake and UNC, @Clemson, and vs. Georgetown. Lunardi has them at a 40% chance of ending up as a 1, which seems about right. This is definitely worth keeping an eye on, especially if they win @GTech on Wednesday night, and against Georgetown on Saturday.

Pittsburgh
WSEX: 12/15
Best odds: 10:1 (The Greek)
Record: 15-0 (3-0)
Pomeroy rank: 2

They were 22-1 in June, which is looking pretty good at the moment. I think they've probably hit at least a local peak in terms of hype/ranking/odds (I guess the ranking part isn't really going out on a limb, as it's tough to improve on #1). Yes, they're undefeated, but when you look at their resume, the only Pomeroy top 50 team they've faced is Georgetown.

The 16-point win in DC was very impressive, but it's worth considering that that was just about the best possible matchup for the Panthers; they're the #3 offensive rebounding team in the country, while the Hoyas are 301st on the defenisve boards. It was that combination that allowed Pitt to pull down an absurd 56% of their own misses en route to a dominant road win. South Florida shouldn't pose much of a challenge on Wednesday, but their game at Louisville -- 6th in the country in defensive rebounding -- on Saturday will be a good test. For now though, it's too early to jump on them at this price.

Connecticut
WSEX: 11/14
Best odds: 12:1 (The Greek)
Record: 14-1 (3-1)
Pomeroy rank: 7

No, definitely not. I just don't see what the Huskies have done to indicate that they're much better than their current Pomeroy ranking. They almost lost to Buffalo, and they should've lost to Gonzaga. The win @WVU was nice, but let's be serious, the Mountaineers are far from the fourth best team in the country; in fact they are not the fourth best team in their conference. UConn still has a lot to prove -- force a turnover! -- before they're worthy of anything approaching 12:1 odds.

Louisville
WSEX: 11/14
Best odds: 20:1 (VIP)
Record: 12-3 (3-0)
Pomeroy rank: 14

This is interesting; I was surprised to see the Cardinals so high on the WSEX list. I don't really think of them as a serious national title contender right now, with their offense being the obvious thing holding them back. It doesn't seem like personnel is the issue. Clark and Samuels are both very good in the paint, and Williams, despite his low shooting percentages, is a competent enough wing. But then you watch them actually play, and Earl Clark (career from 3: 29.9%) is jacking up threes* against a weak Notre Dame defense, and they're not getting the ball inside when Harangody has four fouls. Maybe they just need time to figure things out without Padgett (although it really shouldn't take that long); more likely, the defense will continue to excel, but the offense will keep them from reaching Detroit.

* - And this wasn't a fluke, he's averaging 2.3 3PAs per game. I cannot even begin to understand this.

UCLA
WSEX: 9/12
Best odds: 20:1 (The Greek)
Record: 13-2 (3-0)
Pomeroy rank: 12

While watching them beat USC on Sunday night, I was thinking that the Bruins hadn't gotten as much national attention as usual over the season's first two months. A quick glance at their Pomeroy non-conference SOS ranks from the last for years explains why:

The difference between their schedule two years ago and this year can't be an accident. In '06, they played three teams in the Pomeroy top 20 and just one below 200; this year, it was zero teams in the top 20 and five below 200. I don't know if Howland had a change in philosophy or what, but something must have happened here.

Anyway, in light of that information it's hardly surprising that they haven't proven much so far. Collison is off to a hilariously good start -- 61% from two, 50% from three, 94% from the line -- but I don't think anyone was worried about their PG play coming into the year. Interior defense is a serious concern though, as they're allowing almost 49% on twos. This makes sense, with Love and Mata-Real gone. Until they improve on that -- and maybe they will as Gordon and Morgan figure things out -- they're not really a viable option here.

Wake Forest
WSEX: 8/11
Best odds: 50:1 (VIP)
Record: 14-0 (1-0)
Pomeroy rank: 9

Now this is interesting.

These odds are the biggest outlier on the board; I haven't seen the Demon Deacons any higher than 25:1 anywhere else. Now, that doesn't automatically mean there is value here -- futures odds are just really not worthwhile most of the time -- but it's definitely a positive indicator.

Like UCLA, Wake played a weak OOC schedule, ranking just 260th in the country. Unlike UCLA, they won all of those games, including an impressive victory at BYU. And then they got off to a great start on their ACC schedule, beating UNC by three on Sunday night. Lunardi has them as a #1 seed right now, although it will be tough for them to hold that*. Their next six games include @BC, @Clemson, vs. Duke, @GTech, and @Miami; that's pretty rough, although it's not like they need to stay undefeated.

They had some offensive problems in November -- 75 points in 83 possessions against Fullerton isn't going to cut it -- but they have been much better recently. Unfortunately it's almost impossible to put a number on their national championship chances, but this looks to be the best value of the eight teams discussed here.

* - Lunardi gives them a 20% chance of actually getting a #1. I don't know if he's worth paying attention to with something like that -- although all of his current numbers for that type of things seem reasonable enough -- but that's probably worth a post at some point.

Michigan St.
WSEX: 8/11
Best odds: 30:1 (VIP)
Record: 13-2 (3-0)
Pomeroy rank: 23

Their two losses are just so ugly: by 35 against no longer invincible UNC, and an 18-point loss to Maryland in Florida. They have a bunch of wins, but nothing that really stands out enough to make a team with such a low Pomeroy rank attractive.