College Hoops Futures Watch, Take 3

I'm going to skip some of the teams in the bottom half of the WSEX list, just because I don't want to waste everybody's time explaining why Michigan isn't going to win it all.

Texas
WSEX: 3/5
Best odds: 30:1 (The Greek)
Record: 12-4 (1-1)
Pomeroy rank: 30

It's too bad Pittman can't play more than 1/3 of the time, because he's damn good when he's actually out there. With Augustin gone, it makes sense that they've gone from 1st (as in lowest) to 30th in the country in turnover percentage, and 108th to 210th in eFG%. The defense has actually improved, but at 30:1 you're paying for the success they had with Augustin over the last couple years.

Kansas
WSEX: 2/4
Best odds: 75:1 (Bodog)
Record: 12-4 (1-0)
Pomeroy rank: 19

19th is actually rather impressive when you consider what they lost. After impressing in their blowout win over UNC in the national semifinal last year, Cole Aldrich is coming into his own, shooting 62% from the field. He's also in the top 30 in the nation in block percentage and defensive rebounding. One concern here is that they've played two true road games, and lost both by a combined 30 points; that includes a 17 point loss to a very mediocre Arizona team. They are more interesting than I would've guessed, considering the circumstances, but it's far too early to assume they'll be in the mix in late March.

Kentucky
WSEX: 3/5
Best odds: 60:1 (Carib)
Record: 13-4 (2-0)
Pomeroy rank: 23

So yeah, this was pretty impressive; the VMI loss sure seems like a long time ago. With Meeks and Patterson, you'd think they'd have one of the top offenses in the country. But that goes out the window quite quickly when you see that they're 308th in the country in turnover percentage. Freshman DeAndre Liggins is really holding them back-- he has a pathetic 37% turnover rate, and is just 5/30 from three. The core is there, and they're the favorites to win the SEC, but until they get the turnovers under control they can't be considered a serious threat.

Marquette
WSEX: 3/5
Best odds: 100:1 (VIP)
Record: 15-2 (4-0)
Pomeroy rank: 21

You couldn't ask for a much easier start to your schedule in this conference than Nova/Cincy/Rutgers/WVU/Provo/DePaul, with four of the six coming at home. They've taken advantage of the first two-thirds of that stretch, winning their first four Big East games by an average of 17 points. McNeal has improved from 30% from deep last year to 45% thus far this season, although I suppose that was bound to happen to one of the three guards.

While their offense is kind of odd, considering the makeup of the roster, their defense is exactly what you'd expect; they struggle against twos and are just 203rd in the nation in block percentage. It will be interesting to see how highly they're thought of in mid-February, as they'll probably be about 11-2 in the "rugged" Big East. It will then be similarly intriguing to see how far their perception falls after their final five games: @G'town, vs UConn, @L'Ville, @Pitt, vs. Syracuse. Regardless, I doubt there's a precedent for the 295th tallest team in the country winning it all, especially one that's pretty average from three.

West Virginia
WSEX: 3/5
Best odds: 75:1 (VIP)
Record: 12-4 (1-2)
Pomeroy rank: 8

Well, Pomeroy isn't perfect, but you already knew that. Immediately after climbing to #1 in the ratings, they lost to UConn by six at home, and then got blown out at Marquette by 22. They're now down to eighth, and will likely drop from there. This is a horrible shooting team; they're 157th in the nation in eFG%, and are shooting just 64.5% from the line (281st). The Mountaineers are going to have to beat somebody better than Ohio St. to be taken seriously in this context.

Syracuse
WSEX: 3/5
Best odds: 40:1 (The Greek)
Record: 16-2 (4-1)
Pomeroy rank: 31

Even before their 14-point loss to Georgetown, I never really understood why people were so excited about the Cuse. I suppose it was because they had beaten three schools, in Florida, Kansas, and Memphis, who have been awesome recently but aren't anything special this year. In reality none of those wins were particularly convincing or impressive, they famously lost to Cleveland St. at the buzzer (although they shouldn't have put themselves in that position, at home, to begin with), and almost lost to UVa at home.

Onuaku continues to be killer from the field (71%), but that and getting to the rim are about the only things they do well on offense. They turn it over too much, are awful from the line (63.4%), and their mediocre three-point shooting will get worse if Rautins misses any significant time. Throw in a defense that's nothing to write home about, and I don't see what all the fuss is with these guys.

Arizona State
WSEX: 2/4
Best odds: 60:1 (BetUS)
Record: 14-3 (3-2)
Pomeroy rank: 4

Just when I was starting to get excited about the Sun Devils, Harden has to go 0/8 from the field in a 12-point loss at USC. He was shooting 63% from two and 42% from three coming into the game, so you're excused if you didn't see that one coming. Pendergraph has actually been even better offensively (rate-wise, at least), shooting 67% from two and 83% from the line. This offensive juggernaut is the most intriguiging team on tonight's list, but, aside from an impressive 30-point win @Stanford, they haven't done enough yet to be worth taking at this price.