Neither Bookmaker nor The Greek have been able to tell me when they'll post the actual totals, but it should be in the next week or two. For now -- assisted by reader Rob B., who actually came up with the first draft of these -- I thought I'd throw out some guesses on what they'll release.
The Yankees might be even higher than that. They're currently +490 at Pinny to win it all. Pretty funny.
I think the bullpen additions will pull the Mets ahead of the Phillies, although I may not be giving Philly enough credit for their October performance. Or their new stud left fielder. I also don't really understand when Utley is coming back, although Rotoworld is optimistic.
The AL Central is a mess, and I don't really have a good handle on the public perception of any of those teams. Does the average fan know the Indians are going to be unbeatable? It's just hard to tell.
It's also tough to know how to weigh the fact the Astros won 86 games last year vs. the fact that the back of their rotation is Backe/Hampton/Moehler. I'm hoping they're higher than listed above.
In case you were wondering, there will indeed be another contest this year. Any suggestions on format tweaks are welcome.
11 comments:
Pretty nice job on these. I think that Nats line has to come out in the 62-65 range though. They've just been so bad historically, and in that division, I don't think anyone is buying them as a 70 win ball club.
69 may very well be high, but I think 62 is way low. 59 last year, regression + Dunn has to get them to at least 64-65. And they did win 73 two years ago.
I've found historical data almost impossible to get, but the lowest number the last two years has been BAL last year at 65.5. Guessing out of that range would be like guessing that K-State will be -1 against Oklahoma.
Any leans based on these numbers? I could potentially find a play on every team in the AL West, but I suppose the retarded overvaluation of the Angels will do that. I like that Dodgers under a lot, as well as the Rox over. Probably won't be able to play the Giants, even though I'll want to.
I also think that Yankees number will come out even higher than 96.
Is there any good way to project (what the) win totals (will be) based on a combination of division odds and WS odds? I feel like there's gotta be some correlation, and should be worth a look.
Your total wins and losses look good and your distribution of wins between AL and NL look good. Haven't analyzed the individual teams yet to see where the value might lie. As far as contests, what were your guidelines last year? Possible ideas could be, have everyone put a unique confidence factor on each of the 30 win total over/unders and see who accumulates the most points at the end of the year.
vr, Xei
"Is there any good way to project (what the) win totals (will be) based on a combination of division odds and WS odds? I feel like there's gotta be some correlation, and should be worth a look."
I looked at both the Carib and Pinny odds to idiot check these before I posted them, but I think you have to consider a good deal more than that.
"Any leans based on these numbers?"
This was briefly discussed here last week, but:
CHW U, DET U, LAA U, BAL O, ATL O, HOU U.
Can I try to middle the Angles with under your number and over PECOTA??? Looks juicy
Form some reason I thought PECTOA had Angels at 79w's --- under 90 still looks juicy... D'backs over could get me interested as well
They're still tinkering with PECOTA, and the Angels also signed Abreu last week, which is now factored in.
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