Full bracket can be found here.
Seed: Projected seed in the latest version of Bracketology.
Pom: Current Pomeroy rating.
Adj.: Adjustment made to that rating (in points) based on recent lines.
HCA: Adjustment made for home-court advantage.
2R, Semis, Final, Champ: Chances of advancing to each round, based on 20,000 simulations.
Odds: Best odds for each team, taken from The Greek, Bodog, BetUS, SportsBetting, Bookmaker and 5Dimes.
Site: Site at which these odds can be found.
ROI: Average return on investment for these odds.
(The above table assumes that Lawson plays, which is apparently in doubt.)
Locks: North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida St.
It was at this point that Florida kicked it into high gear in '07. The Gators had lost three of five, and if I'm remembering correctly were far from a lock for a #1 seed. They proceeded to win their three SEC tournament games by an average of 20 points (although it wasn't against the stiffest competition), which vaulted them to the #1 overall seed. North Carolina doesn't have nearly as much to play for -- they could lose on Friday and still get a top seed -- but even so it'll be interesting to see how they fair in Atlanta.
Bookmaker just posted conference tournament odds and, as you can see above, there are some good ones. The only reason I can think of to not take Duke at that price is that they've lost three in a row to UNC, and that doesn't strike me as a particularly compelling argument.
Clemson at 15:1 is also attractive; they're not higher than 11:1 anywhere else. Lines have actually already been released for Thursday's games, and the Tigers are favored by 9.5 against Georgia Tech. This confirms my assessment of them; Pomeroy has Clemson beating the Ramblin' Wreck by 11.1, and when you bump that down by 1.5 due to the location of the game, you get right to the actual line.
Also of interest in Atlanta this weekend is the battle between Duke and Wake for both seeding and placement in the Greensboro region. At ninth on the S-curve, the Blue Devils are currently one spot ahead of the Demon Deacons, who they'll likely face on Saturday. The winner of that matchup will probably get a #2 seed and two games in their home state to start the NCAAs.
Bubble: Boston College, Miami FL, Maryland, Virginia Tech
BC almost lost to Georgia Tech at home on Saturday (won by one); if they avoid what would be a similarly devastating loss against Virginia in the opening round here they'll be in good shape, having finished 9-7 in the ACC with wins over Duke and UNC.
Miami also survived a scare this weekend, as they were down nine at the half against NC State. They rallied to win by eight, although that only got them to 7-9 in conference; those three OT losses aren't helping. Lunardi has them as the fourth team out, but I'm with Sheehan in not seeing what' so attractive about their candidacy. A win over Virginia Tech is an absolute must, but I don't think they'll deserve a bid unless they beat UNC on Friday.
While other teams were avoiding bad losses, Maryland was busy falling to Virginia. If they'd just won that one -- and although it is indeed a bad loss, it's not like it was a huge upset, as they were only favored by 1.5 -- they'd probably only need an opening around win against NCSU to get in. As it stands, it looks like they'll both need to win that game and beat Wake on Friday.
The Hokies had an incredible difficult schedule down the stretch: @Clemson, vs. Duke, vs. UNC, @FSU. Not surprisingly they went 1-3 in those games to finish at 7-9 in the ACC, a disappointing result for a team that started 6-3. They didn't beat any Pomeroy top 100 teams out of conference, and lost at UGA and to Seton Hall on a neutral court. To even get into the discussion they'll have to beat Miami and UNC to advance to the semifinals.
Need a run to the finals (at least): North Carolina St.
Do the Wolfpack deserve to be in this spot rather than a couple paragraphs lower? No, not really; even a run to the finals would get them to just 9-11 in ACC games, and they're a miserable 2-9 away from home with those wins coming against New Orleans and Georgia Tech. Maybe next year I won't tailor the four categories to the first tournament I write about.
No chance: Georgia Tech, Virginia
Neither of these teams are very good, and their odds are even worse. Here are the average ROIs from the first four conferences I've gone through, with the teams ranked by their likelihood of winning the tournament and separated into quartiles.
It's surprising that the odds for the top quartile are so close to break even, but less so when you consider we're only looking at the best odds from a variety of books. What is truly incredible is just how awful the odds for teams like Georgia Tech and Virginia are; it must just be that they're getting action at these horrendous prices, and the volume wouldn't be significantly increased if they made them a little more reasonable.
Related: Conference Check, Final Reality Edition [Basketball Prospectus]
2 comments:
The Kenpom numbers suggest Duke should be around a 2.5 point dog to Carolina and win 41% of the time. I have to think that given the results of the teams matchups Carolina would be around a 5 point favorite and Duke should be available at 2-1 or better if they play.*
* I'm not certain of this, especially if Lawson sits.
Pomeroy had Duke at +7.2 @UNC, they were +7.5 on Sunday. In their previous game he had them at -10.8 vs. FSU, and they were -12.5.
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