The full bracket can be found here.
(click to enlarge)
Seed: Projected seed in the latest version of Bracketology.
Pom: Current Pomeroy rating.
Adj.: Adjustment made to that rating (in points) based on recent lines.
HCA: Adjustment made for home-court advantage.
2R, Semis, Final, Champ: Chances of advancing to each round, based on 20,000 simulations.
VIP: Odds at VIP.com.
Odds: Best odds for each team, taken from The Greek, Bodog, BetUS, SportsBetting and 5Dimes.
Site: Site at which the best non-VIP odds can be found.
ROI: Average return on investment for those odds.
Locks: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri
The Sooners' situation seems fairly simple; win this thing and they probably end up on the top line, anything less and they're a #2. Their chances of winning could be slightly higher than the 23.6% shown here if you give them more than 1.5 points for playing in Oklahoma City.
Mizzou really needs to show that they can compete away from Columbia, as they've lost their last two road games by a total of 35 points. Their potential Friday night matchup with Oklahoma would be a good indicator, and a win would probably bump them up to a three seed. They're interesting at +400, but likely not worth it, especially considering that giving Oklahoma 1.5 points for HCA is probably conservative.
Like Louisville, the top-seeded Jayhawks have a much easier path than the conference's #2 and #3 teams. They, too, need to get back on track away from home after getting blown out by Texas Tech last week, although their Big 12 road resume other than that is pretty impressive. A berth in the finals would probably land KU on the second line; I don't see how they get a #1 even with a win on Saturday night, unless something really weird happens at MSG.
Bubble: Texas, Oklahoma St., Texas A&M, Kansas St., Nebraska
The gap between Texas and Nebraska is enormous, but that's what I get for creating completely arbitrary categories. The Longhorns are probably in now, and they'll certainly get in if they can just beat Colorado on Wednesday afternoon. Nebraska, on the other hand, is not even in "Next Four Out" at this point, so they'll need to at least beat Baylor and Kansas to get back into the discussion. The Huskers lost two games to Oregon St. and Maryland Baltimore County by a combined three points back in December; if they'd won those two they'd probably just need to beat Baylor to secure a berth.
The three teams in the middle all finished 9-7 in the Big 12, and are all legitimately on the bubble. The Pokes have a strong non-conference resume, with wins against Tulsa, Siena, and Rhode Island, and their only three losses coming to teams in Pomeroy's top 14. A&M is in good shape as well, having lost to Tulsa but beaten Arizona and Louisiana St. in the last two months of '08. Both are close to sure things if they win Wednesday evening.
Kansas State's best non-conference win is @Cleveland St., and they lost to both Iowa and Oregon, so that really hurts them when compared with the other Big 12 bubble teams. They definitely have to beat Texas on Thursday, and might even have to follow that up with a win over KU.
No chance: Baylor, Iowa St., Texas Tech, Colorado
Colorado is awful (180th in Pomeroy), which is what makes their close calls so interesting. During their current 11-game losing streak they've lost at KU and OU by just five points each, and took Texas to overtime at home. Then again they also lost at Iowa St. by 28, so who knows what to expect from the Buffaloes on Wednesday. DePaul has already set the bar pretty high for these last place teams.
Related: Joe Sheehan breaks down the bubble teams [Basketball Prospectus]
5 comments:
"A berth in the finals would probably land KU on the second line; I don't see how they get a #1 even with a win on Saturday night, unless something really weird happens at MSG."
As a KU fan, I've been thinking about this quite a bit. I think UNC has a #1 wrapped up, and there will be at least 2 from the Big East. The only way I can see Kansas getting a #1 is if 4 things happen:
1) Louisville lays an egg in MSG
2) Michigan State fails to win the Big 11
3) UNC takes care of business in the ACC (otherwise Duke or Wake may sneak ahead)
4) KU wins the Big 12 (of course)
I think they may sneak in in that scenario.
Memphis is the one team you left out. They're fifth on Lunardi's S-curve right now. I guess KU could jump ahead of them if they beat Mizzou/OU, but not necessarily. The problem with their draw is they don't have the opportunity for two bigtime wins like OU and Missouri do.
I think Memphis is a very good team, probably better than Kansas. But unless the committee starts relying more on Pomeroy ratings and subjective judgments than they have in the past, I'd be surprised to see Memphis end up #1 over Kansas in that situation.
Going off the RPI at TeamRankings.com, it looks like Memphis would be 5-3 against the RPI top 50 (if they beat UAB in the tourney). Their best win would be either @Gonzaga (24) or @Tennessee (25). Kansas would be 11-3 vs the top 50 (if they beat Texas and OU/MU in the tourney), with more high level wins: @Oklahoma (8), Washington (11), Missouri (13), Tennesee (25), and one more against OU/MU (8/11).
I guess I can see Memphis getting the nod because they don't have any bad losses, but that is really the only advantage their resume would have over Kansas's. Beating OU or MU in the final would take care of the other one, which is that all KU's wins come at home (or against Griffin-less teams).
Sorry, I know I'm hijacking the discussion here. I'll stop being defensive.
"I guess I can see Memphis getting the nod because they don't have any bad losses, but that is really the only advantage their resume would have over Kansas's."
Well, they do have three fewer losses, if that can be counted as a distinct edge. They also have a much better road record (10-1 vs. 6-4), although obviously that's a product of facing weaker competition. They also take the L12 or L10 or whatever category, and you can't say that's just because of the schedule, since they have the five Pomeroy top 60 road wins since the last time they lost.
Okay, I'm starting to argue the point that Memphis is the better team, which was not my intention. I don't even really have a strong opinion of which of those teams should get a #1 seed if they both win out. I just think it might well be Memphis.
I always forget about road record and last 12. I guess I need to root against Memphis as well. Or start convincing myself that a 2 is as good as a 1.
Of course, all of this will be moot when they flame out in OKC.
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