Same as before. $500 to the winner, and thanks to the good folks at RotoWire, we're going to have a second place prize this year of a free six month subscription over there. Only 76 entries so far, but I'd expect this post to inspire a good deal more. Deadline is the first pitch of Braves-Phillies, 8pm EST pm on April 5.
Those Bodog totals I posted ended up being somewhat bogus; they were taken down before they were even open for betting. Fortunately, The Greek is now offering totals you can actually wager on (crazy, I know), which is what we'll be using.
The rules will be a little different than last year, since we didn't vote on each team's number. Each person will once again take the over or under on 10 teams, but this time they can be whichever teams you want (although obviously not the same one twice). To complicate things, you'll need to assign a confidence rating to each of your picks, ranging from 10 (most confident) to 1 (least).
Here are the totals:
Arizona- 86.5
Atlanta- 83.5
Baltimore- 73.5
Boston- 94.5
Chicago C- 91.5
Chicago W- 79.5
Cincinnati- 80.5
Cleveland- 85.5
Colorado- 77.5
Detroit- 82.5
Florida- 76.5
Houston- 74.5
Kansas City- 75.5
LA Angels- 89.5
LA Dodgers- 82.5
Milwaukee- 80.5
Minnesota- 83.5
NY Mets- 88.5
NY Yankees- 97.5
Oakland- 81.5
Philadelphia- 87.5
Pittsburgh- 69.5
San Diego- 71.5
San Francisco- 80.5
Seattle- 72.5
St. Louis- 82.5
Tampa Bay- 87.5
Texas- 73.5
Toronto- 80.5
Washington- 71.5
The tiebreaker -- hopefully more successful than previous attempts -- will be Cliff Lee's ERA. Please include a tiebreaker with your submission, it's really not that hard.
Once you've figured out what teams you're taking, and your tiebreaker, send your entry to vegaswatch@gmail.com. Give me some kind of name, or initals, so I can identify you when I post standings. There will be a monthly post updating how everyone is projected to do.
So a sample entry would look like this:
Entry name: Fat ShortstopHopefully this is obvious, but this guy would receive 10 points if the Indians win 86 or more games, nine points if the Yankees win 97 or fewer, and so on. The winner of the contest will receive $500. If you have any questions, please ask them in the comments.
10. Cleveland O85.5
9. NY Yankees U97.5
8. LA Angels U89.5
7. Tampa Bay O86.5
6. Chicago WS U79.5
5. Minnesota U83.5
4. Colorado O77.5
3. San Diego O71.5
2. Seattle O71.5
1. Toronto U80.5
Tiebreaker: 1.12
11 comments:
Do we need to redo our picks if we sent them in with the old lines?
The lines we're using have not changed.
Got an e-mail or two today. Up to 127.
Can we post entries here or do they need to be in an email?
They need to be in an e-mail. I don't feel like that's asking too much.
It was just a question, no need to go all Dave Cameron on us.
Just to clarify, picks must be sent to you via email, right? We can't just post them in random spots throughout the Internet and then notify you via comment or email as to where to find them?
Can we just cross out Fat Shortstop's name and insert our own? That kid's got moxie.
That would be fantastic, actually.
Question: Do you think PECOTA, CHONE, etc. have entered the public's consciousness to the point that there's now value to be found in the opposite direction in certain circumstances? Use Milwaukee as an example. They won 90 last year, PECOTA has them for 84 this year, but the O/U is just 80.5. At first glance this screams Over...but it just seems a little too obvious.
The Brewers Pythag was 87 wins last year, which is a better place to start than the 90. They also just lost a guy who pitched 130+ innings at 260 ERA+ for them. That basically explains the difference between last years pythag ang this years PCOTA...
Personally, I'd stay away 3.5 wins isn't exactly a slam dunk, but I certainly don't think the Brewers are bad enough for there to be any value in the under.
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