Regional Previews: West (2009)

Here's part one of the big simulation.  Using AM's template, I made the usual adjustments according to how it looks like the oddsmakers view each team.  Additionally, the lines for each first round game were taken into account, as well as the fact that some teams are playing very close to home in the early going.

(click to enlarge)

R1 line: Duh.

Pyth: KenPom rating.

Adj.: Adjustment to Pyth based on recent lines.

R2 HCA: Didn't happen in the region, but I gave some teams a boost in round two if they're playing particularly close to home (or, say, AT home).

R2: % of the time team advances to second round; weighted 75% the R1 line, 25% unadjusted Pomeroy

S16: % of the time team advances to Sweet 16; mostly just adjusted Pomeroy, with occasional HCA consideration

E8, F4, NC, CH: % of time team advances to next four rounds.

NC Odds, Site, F4 Odds, Site: best NC and F4 odds for each team, and the site at which they can be found

Then I just listed the team name again for convenience because the table is so damn long.

Philadelphia (Thurs/Sat): Connecticut, Chattanooga, Brigham Young, Texas A&M

I think UConn presented an interesting case for the committee.  How much credit do you give them for the 23 games they played (winning 22 of them) with Dyson? It's not like they played horribly after he went out -- 5-3, with two losses to Pitt and one more in the Syracuse game that, uh, could've gone either way -- but it'd be hard to argue that they weren't worse.  It's not as straightforward as if a key player is out, then returns and is clearly at full strength; I think it's easier to give the team in question a break in that situation than it is to dock the Huskies for losing one of their key cogs for the season.

Regardless, they got the #1 anyway, although it wasn't much of a reward; after Chattanooga (bad even for a 16), this is a pretty awful draw.  I'm going to have them in at least the Sweet 16 in any bracket that does normal scoring, just because they're about 3.5 times more likely than BYU to win two games.  But the line in their game against the Cougars, and their +0.14 EM in the MWC, is going to be ridiculously short; Pomeroy has the Huskies winning that one by just 4.4 points, and in my sim it's only about five.  But BYU has to get past A&M first, and while they probably will, I think you have to play the percentages and go with Connecticut to advance.  Unless you're getting odds with the Cougars of course, like the 50-1 on them to reach the Final Four listed above.

Portland (Thurs/Sat): Washington, Mississippi St., Purdue, Northern Iowa

The Boilermakers are going to save me from having an all-chalk Sweet 16 in this region, although I'm not exactly going out on a limb there.  With Hummell, they're better than the Huskies (well, the ones from Seattle at least), although it's probably close.  What makes the difference here is the two teams' respective first round opponents.  Despite being the higher seed, Washington has the tougher draw, facing signficantly underseeded Mississippi St.  Of all the #4s, they are easily the most likely to go down in round one, at about 30%.  Purdue, on the other hand, is the most likely #5 to advance to the weekend, at just over 81%.

Boise (Fri/Sun): Missouri, Cornell, Marquette, Utah St.

Because of a potential Sweet 16 matchup with the pesky defensive juggernaut that will be dicussed shortly, Mizzou has a bad draw overall; just about every non-Memphis team in this region does, at least if you go by Pomeroy.  But in the first two rounds they actually did pretty well; I have their S16 draw at 23% easier than average.  They got lucky being placed in the same pod as Marquette, which is extremely appealing when compared with the other three #6s, each in the top 12 in Pomeroy.  They also avoided getting unlucky with their Friday opponent, as the non-NDSU #14 seeds are all very comparable.

Marquette (graph) without James is kind of hard to figure.  That moving average isn't terribly helpful because they were favored by six against Syracuse a couple weeks ago in a game Pomeroy currently has them winning by just 3.1; that big discrepancy is partially because the Cuse have played so well since, and also because the oddsmakers were very bearish on them (Syracuse) down the stretch.  A more accurate measure is Marquette's last three games, including Friday's matchup with USU; Pomeroy has them winning those by an average of 5.4, while the spreads come to a mean of just 3.2.  I actually docked them just a half point initially, but after realizing that the Syracuse line was throwing things off I reconsidered.

I can't see much of a reason not to go with Mizzou in this pod.  They're a much bigger fave on Friday (although an extremely popular one), and Pomeroy has them -3.2 over Marquette in the potential (but far from guaranteed) Sunday matchup.

Kansas City (Thurs/Sat): Memphis, CS Northridge, California, Maryland

One of the most important -- "important" -- decisions I had to make with this simulation was how many points to dock Memphis off their KPom rating.  This sort of thing is hard whenever a team has played exceedingly well very recently, and that's certainly the case here, as the Tigers beat Houston and Tulsa by 25 points apiece to claim the C-USA crown.  The Pomeroy ratings fully take this into consideration, while the Tulsa line (-14.5) only slightly does, and the Houston line (-14) doesn't at all.  So while the most recent moving average on their graph is -1.6, that isn't telling us the whole story.  Because of the strong recent performance and their first round line (see below), I think -1 is as good an estimate as any.

Northridge is pretty easily the best #15, but that's not stopping the Tigers from getting absolutely pounded at 19.5.  That CSN is just 17-13 is playing a big role there, but they played a decent schedule, lost a bunch close games (270th in luck), and finished 13-5 in the Big West (#16 conference).  Even Pomeroy, who is obviously as high on Memphis as anyone, only has them winning this one by 18.5.

If they do advance, their draw in the second round is a bit above average.  Maryland, outscored by 0.07 ppp in the ACC, is a pretty bad #10, while Cal is an okay seven despite their recent struggles.  The simulation indicates there's about a 55% chance it'll be Tigers-Bears, which would be an interesting pairing.  

Cal is awesome from three, shooting a ridiculous 43.4% as a team this year, far and away the best in the nation.  It would be fun to watch them against a team with as absurd a defensive resume as Memphis.  I'm by no means jumping off the bandwagon here, but if 5'10" Jerome Randle gets as hot from deep as he did against Arizona, it could be trouble for the Tigers.  Memphis supporters should definitely be pulling for the Terps on Thursday.

Second weekend: Phoenix (next Fri/Sun)

So, in descending order of likelihood of making it this far, this will be Memphis, Connecticut, Missouri, and Purdue in my bracket.  Pomeroy has Memphis -5.4 and UConn -3.4.  I'll definitely have Memphis coming out of this region.  I'm tempted to take Purdue to beat Connecticut in the Sweet 16, although the numbers in the table above would suggest that's a poor idea; of course, Purdue winning after I picked them would put me in a better position to win whichever pool this bracket is entered into than the same situation happening with UConn.  I'll delay that decision until I post my full bracket Wednesday night.  But:

West Regional Pick: Memphis.